The inevitable has happened and the Middle East has gone into a deep crisis with chaos and uncertainties. In retaliation to the assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Iran launched missile attacks on Israel (Oct 2, 2024), targeting its airfields and Mossad headquarters.

Earlier, in a deliberate escalatory move, Israel expanded the war horizon by launching ‘pager detonations’ against Hezbollah and conducting devastating air raids on the underground headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut. Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Nasrullah along with other key Hezbollah/Hamas figures on Sep 27, 2024. Israel also conducted airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen on Sept 29 and targeted Russian airbase in Damascus and launched attacks against Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) bases in central Lebanon. Tel Aviv calculated the risks of enlarging the war theatre and Iranian retaliatory attacks, and the likely Israeli response have set unprecedented consequences for regional security.

In a rare public appearance in four years, Iranian Supreme leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, addressed the Jumma congregation (Oct 4, 2024) at Tehran in Persian and Arabic. He emphasized the need for Muslim unity in support of the oppressed people of Palestine and Lebanon.

Israel has launched massive airstrikes on Gaza killing over 42,000 civilians, mostly women and children, over 96,000 injured and millions displaced.

Khamenei said the blood of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders would further embolden the will to resist against Israel and its backers. “The resistance in the region will not back down even with the killing of its leaders,” he remarked, calling Iran’s attack on Israel “legal and legitimate”.

“The operations were … in return for the heinous crimes committed by this bloodthirsty criminal entity. We will not act irrationally … not act impulsively.”

Aljazeera reports that Khamenei’s sermon sent a message to Israel that the Iranian authorities “are not hiding, they are not seeking shelter, they are not going underground.”

Khamenei served as president of Islamic Republic (1981-89). He was deputy defense minister and commander of the IRGC, considered as a foreign policy hawk and negotiator of ‘hostage crisis’ (Britannica, Oct 4, 2024); therefore, he is well versed with military strategy, diplomatic maneuverings and public posturing.

Importantly, for the last one year (Oct 2023 – Oct 2024), Israel has been unable to achieve any of its military or political objectives. In the light of its insane bombardment in Gaza and Lebanon against unarmed civilians, Israel has failed to break the will of the people; they have not vacated the areas. Assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Nasrullah have produced alternate leadership that is more hardline and resolute. On the contrary, several hundred thousand dual national Jews have left Israel (Haaretz, Sep 6, 2024) and ‘Israeli economy is paying a high price for its widening war’ (CNN, Oct 4, 2024). Therefore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for his political survival at the expense of its own people/country and the region at large.

ISRAELI BELLICOSITY:

Since October 2023, Israel has launched massive airstrikes on Gaza killing over 42,000 civilians, mostly women and children, over 96,000 injured and millions displaced (Aljazeera, Oct 4, 2024). Gaza has been turned into a living hell with two-third of the infrastructure destroyed or damaged, including schools and hospitals (Aljazeera, Aug 21, 2024). This amounts to genocide and systematic human cleansing. Since Sep 20, 2024, Israel has conducted airstrikes on Lebanon killing over 1,000 people with more than 6,000 wounded and about one million displaced. It also launched limited ground offensive inside Lebanon.

Israel targeted the camps of PLFP base in central Beirut (BBC News, Sep 31, 2024), which were not actively involved in the war. It also hit the power plants, ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa in Houthi controlled-Yemen (Reuters, Sep 29, 2024).

Israel crossed the Iranian ‘red lines’ when its plan of high-profile targets led to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran.

At the same time, it also launched missile attacks on Khmeimim air base, near the coastal city of Latakia (The Telegraph, Oct 3, 2024), having Tartus Russian naval base. Earlier on Sept 18-I9, Israel conducted ‘pager detonations’ being used by Hezbollah leaders/sympathizers, killing dozens of people. This was a calculated Israeli strategy to enlarge the canvas of war to engage maximum hostile actors in order to get the US financial/military support and political/diplomatic backing. Israel did secure ‘$8.7 billion aid package from the United States to support its ongoing military efforts and to maintain a qualitative military edge in the region’ (Reuters, Sep 26, 2024).

Israel crossed the Iranian ‘red lines’ when its plan of high-profile targets led to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran on July 29, 2024, and most trusted Iranian-ally, Hezbollah leader Nasrullah in Beirut on Sep 27, 2024. Since Oct 2023, Israel has killed Hamas military commanders Ibrahim Biari, Saleh al-Arouri and Mohammad Dief, IRGC commanders Razi Mousavi and Reza Zahedi (The Guardians, July 31, 2024), and Hezbollah commanders Ibrahim Qubaisi, Ibrahim Aqil, Ahmed Wahabi, Fuad Shukr, Muhammad Nasser and Taleb Abdallah (Aljazeera, Sep 28, 2024).

These high-profile killings clearly show Israeli bellicosity to target the political/military commanders to break the will of the ‘resistance Forces.’ However, after each assassination, a more hardline and resolute commander has become the alternate source for Israeli anxiety.

Netanyahu also directly threatened that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East”.

The Israeli prime minister during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly session, which was boycotted by many delegates, retorted that the multiple conflicts in the Middle East were far from resolved, and he vowed to continue battling the Lebanese Hezbollah and defeat Hamas in the Gaza Strip until “total victory” (Associated Press, Sep 29, 2024). Netanyahu also directly threatened that “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that is true of the entire Middle East”.

Surprisingly, in a bizarre move, Israel declared UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres as ‘persona non grata’ as ‘Guterres condemned the escalation of violence in the region’ (Aljazeera, Oct 2, 2024). These Israeli moves clearly reflect sheer bellicosity and hardened approach with disregard to the international fora and humanitarian laws. It shows Israeli war-mongering and genocidal strategy to wipe out unarmed civilians in the region.

IRANIAN STRATEGIC RESTRAINT OR MISCALCULATION:

The new Iranian president, Masood Pezeshkian, is considered to be a moderate and believed in dialogue and engagement with the West. However, the assassination of Haniyeh, at the eve of Pezeshkian’s sworn-in ceremony in Tehran (July 31, 2024), was a sheer embarrassment to Iran and circumvented president’s intended approach.

There were fiery speeches by the Iranian leadership of a ‘befitting reply’ to the assassination, but for about two months (Aug-Sep), there was an intense internal debate over a possible response by Iran. The IRGC and other hardliners were for a befitting reply but the new government was trying to pacify the situation.

Iran had no option but to take retaliatory action against Israel for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and to restore Iranian deterrence.

It was not clear if this was a deliberate ‘strategic restraint’ or a miscalculation by Iran that Israel will not cross its ‘red line’ until the assassination of Nasrullah on Sep 27, 2024. The inaction of Pezeshkian was being questioned; there were also question marks on the loyalty of Iran with its proxies in Palestine and Lebanon. Therefore, Iran had no option but to take retaliatory action against Israel for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and to restore Iranian deterrence and prove its techno-military superiority.

IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS:

On Oct 1, 2024, Iran began the ‘Operation True Promise II’ against Israel by launching waves of around 200 missile attacks on Israeli airbases – Nevatim, Hatzerim and Tel Nof – and Mossad headquarters. According to the Iranian Mehr News Agency, Iran used two-stage rockets with a liquid-fuel first stage and a solid-fuel second stage: Ghadr-S (1,350km range), Ghadr-H (1,650km range), Ghadr-F (1,950 km range), Emad (1,700km range), and Fattah-I and Fattah-2 hypersonic missile having range of 1,400km. (Mehr News Agency, Oct 2, 2024)

It is believed that Iran launched the first attack of ballistic missiles to engage the ‘Iron Dome’ and later fired the hypersonic missiles to hit the actual targets. There are conflicting reports, claims and counter-claims; Iran says 90 per cent of its targets were hit, whereas Israel maintains that 90 per cent of the missiles were intercepted. One report claims that around 20-30 missiles hit the heavily protected Nevatim airbase and directly impacted the protected hangers of F-35 stealth fighter jets.

Iranian strikes believed to have destroyed over 20 fighter jets (Press TV, Oct 3, 2024). Israel also accepted the damage caused to the air base, “however, the damage deemed ineffective” (Times of Israel, Oct 3, 2024). There are reports that at least 32 targets were hit by the Iranian missiles and Israel tried to hide the damage from Iranian missiles by putting digital clouds above Tel Nof and Nevatim airbases for the satellite imagery (Military Watch Magazine, Oct 1, 2024). Importantly, no damage was done to the civilian populated areas/infrastructure and no loss of life were reported.

After the missile attacks, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that the missile attack was an act of ‘self-defense’ that only targeted military and security sites used for attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. “We did so far after exercising tremendous restraint for almost two months, to give space for a ceasefire in Gaza. Iran’s action was concluded, unless Israel decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful.” (Aljazeera, Oct 1, 2024)

There are two possible Iranian targets for Israeli attacks: oil refineries/installations and bunker-buster attack on nuclear facilities.

Pezeshkian stated that “if the Zionist regime (Israel) does not stop its crimes, it will face harsher reactions” (Reuters, Oct 2, 2024). Therefore, Iran’s response would be imminent with full force.

LIKELY ISRAELI RESPONSE:

“Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” Netanyahu said hours after the unprecedented attack (CNN, Oct 2, 2024). A former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett called on Netanyahu to attack Iran’s nuclear and energy sites, claiming that “this could lead Iranians to rise up and bring down their regime at last. Israel has had no better chance in half a century to change the region fundamentally.” (The Atlantic, Oct 2, 2024)

There are two possible Iranian targets for Israeli attacks: oil refineries/installations and bunker-buster attack on nuclear facilities. “Iran has one of the largest refining sectors in the Middle East with about 2.4 million b/d of capacity in 2023 spread across 10 main sites. Its three biggest refineries are the 370,000 b/d Isfahan plant, the 360,000 b/d Abadan refinery, and the 320,000 b/d Bandar Abbas”. (S&P Global, Oct 2, 2024)

However, it is believed that by hitting the Iranian oil installations, the global oil prices would shoot up. “What is really on the table now and is more likely is an attack on oil facilities” (CNBC, Oct 2, 2024). The Iranian retaliation could mean increase in oil prices and disruption of supplies. If Iran chokes the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the entire global oil trade would be disrupted. Importantly, Iran’s strategic Islands of Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs at the entrance of Strait of Hormuz have the capability to undermine the global trade and energy supplies.

The other option is to attack the Iranian nuclear installations, but these are deep inside Iran that would require use of Arab territory and refueling. To cover a radius of 3000-4000 kilometers would be a real challenge, unless the US aircraft carriers are used for attack. However, a former US army officer Jack Jacobs maintains that “Israel could also take aim at Iran’s nuclear facilities, but those buildings are hardened, making them difficult to destroy. A strike on those facilities could trigger an even larger ballistic missile attack by Iran that would be difficult to defend against” (CNBC, Oct 2, 2024).

“The phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended; individual self-restraint does not secure our national security requirements.”

However, if at all Israel wants to hit the Iranian nuclear facilities, nuclear power plants at Bushehr along the Persian Gulf coast are the most vulnerable and easy to target. But in that eventuality, prospects of Iran going nuclear would be much higher than any other time to come.

There is every likelihood that Israel would attack on the eve of first anniversary of the Oct 7 Hamas attack to make a significant impact; however, Tehran has conveyed to the United States through Qatar that ‘any Israeli attack against Iran would meet an “unconventional response” that include targeting Israeli infrastructure.’

“The phase of unilateral self-restraint has ended; individual self-restraint does not secure our national security requirements” (Aljazeera, Oct 3, 2024).

It is believed that Iran has pre-set and calibrated hundreds of missiles against designated Israeli targets, which would be launched when Israel carries out attacks against Iran. Therefore, the world is anxiously waiting for another showdown in the Middle East.

MIDDLE EAST IN TURMOIL:        

Middle East has never seen a lasting peace in the last one century. But over the last one year (Oct 2023 – Oct 2024), the region has slid into deep turmoil and chaos with no respite. Israel has conducted deliberate genocide against the unarmed Palestinians in Gaza and launched attacks against four countries in the region: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran. It has assassinated dozens of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders without breaking their will to resist. The ever- increasing heightened tension has posed severe danger of a regional war that may result in a perpetual destruction and mayhem. The fight for the political survival of Israeli prime minister would produce increased sufferings for the Palestinians and the outcome of Israel-Iran tit-for-tat would yield unimaginable consequences for the regional security and global order.