‘Europe is always running in circles around the US’ – this is how we can assess EU security policy. Recently, Macron said that France would deploy a nuclear umbrella over Europe instead of the United States. Is this a real moment of truth for Europe? Probably not. People have already forgotten that this is déjà vu because Macron made a similar statement back in 2020. And has he since deployed France’s nuclear umbrella over Europe? No.

And what is the problem with deployment? There are technical issues, there are financial issues, plus 10 billion euros annually for the maintenance of nuclear weapons, there is the issue of the reliability of this umbrella – France has only 290 nuclear warheads, 64 of which are on missiles of their 4 nuclear submarines, the rest are airborne missiles on aircraft with a range of up to 300 km. That is, in fact, we are talking about only 64 missiles on submarines with a range of up to 8,000 km, i.e. strategic nuclear weapons. The rest are on aircraft, i.e. tactical nuclear weapons. The United States has 1,550 already loaded strategic nuclear missiles on alert! So how can we compare the first and second umbrellas? Experts say that it will take many more years for France to bring its arsenal of strategic missiles to the appropriate number. This is measured in decades and should have been done since 1991. And what has been done in France? Since then, the number of nuclear warheads has been halved!

It is high time that Europe was accountable not by announcements but by actions

So, this is the whole European performance around defense capability. When Europe allocates significant, i.e. hundreds of billions of dollars for defense, not just announced and then forgotten, when France starts producing nuclear warheads in the amount of 100 units per year or more, which means tens of billions of dollars a year in costs, when Europe says that we are already creating our own army and does the most important thing – accepts Ukraine into the EU, then we can say that Europe has geopolitically taken place and is ready to leave the military umbrella, and therefore the political influence of the United States. Now Europe produces only words in the form of zealous slogans, just like five years ago. So, there are good shows and there are not so good shows. It is high time that Europe was accountable not by announcements but by actions.

What should Europe do to avoid looking like just another show? Europe should accept Ukraine into the EU as soon as possible. This is exactly the issue that von der Leyen should be raising, not starting a new discussion group on the topic of 700 billion euros for defense against the backdrop of the inability to provide 20 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. Everything should be done consistently, else Europe’s moment of truth will be missed.

This may be the real moment of truth for Europe – to accept a country that has been proving its right to be in the single European family for 11 years

A united, geopolitically subjective Europe will happen when it answers the main question: What is Ukraine to Europe? Is it a real member of the family, and therefore Ukraine should be immediately accepted into the EU, or is it still a buffer zone that Europe uses as a shield against Russia? The first answer would make Europe truly united and geopolitically subjective, and then let Macron start his public umbrella speech and throw it over Ukraine as well. This may be the real moment of truth for Europe – to accept a country that has been proving its right to be in the single European family for 11 years. Let’s look at this issue in more details.

In 2015, the Pew Research Center (USA) reported that only 38% of Germans would use force to defend a NATO ally, in accordance with Article 5 of the alliance. In the end, why be surprised, because nothing has changed since the Cold War. In 1980, the British Foreign Office reported on a French opinion poll on the use of force to deter aggression. Two-thirds of the French believed that ‘if Russia invaded France, the proper response would be negotiations’. So, over what does Macron intend to spread his nuclear umbrella of just several nuclear submarines and less than a hundred aircrafts with short-range nuclear missiles? Over the whole of Europe, or just over a negotiating table somewhere near Paris on the first day of the war?

Who should be fighting to defend Europe? Ukraine again? Then, why is Ukraine not in NATO, or at least not in the EU? This is a challenge and at the same time a call to a paralyzed Europe!

One can only imagine Europe’s natural reaction to the fact that the war in Ukraine has been going on for four years now! It is a nerve-paralyzing effect. To imagine that Ukraine, a buffer zone outside of NATO and the EU, would resist for so long is a surreal story for Europe, and the realization of this makes Europe ask the US not to leave Europe alone and at the same time throw around a lot of slogans about its ‘determined’ intentions to provide security by itself, to show at least the appearance of its subjectivity. It’s worth asking politicians in Brussels: Given the sentiments of the Germans and the French mentioned above, who should be fighting to defend Europe? Ukraine again? Then, why is Ukraine not in NATO, or at least not in the EU? This is a challenge and at the same time a call to a paralyzed Europe!

Therefore, there is no need to dance around and organise endless photo shoots – this only shows Europe’s disorientation. It is better to do what should have been done earlier – to accept Ukraine into the EU.

In the early 70s, Henry Kissinger warned European allies that if ‘NATO is not ready, a younger, more ruthless Soviet leader will test the alliance and NATO will collapse’. This test has probably come in the form of Putin, and how lucky Europe is that Ukraine, over which the world’s great powers have been conducting a ruthless and irresponsible security experiment since the early 1990s, is in his way!

While Ukraine is fighting, Europe has time to save itself by accepting Ukraine into the EU. But given President Trump’s determination to end the war, Europe is running out of time

If Kissinger and Brzezinski, those who were endowed with a strategic vision, were alive today, what would they say about this? They would probably reproach the West for its strategic short-sightedness, because the fate of both NATO and the EU depends on Ukraine, not only because Ukraine is a human shield on Russia’s path to Europe, but also because Ukraine’s loss of its state sovereignty and independence would lead to a fatal political paralysis in Europe, and thus to the possible collapse of both NATO and the EU. While Ukraine is fighting, Europe has time to save itself by accepting Ukraine into the EU. But given President Trump’s determination to end the war, Europe is running out of time.

Here is a very interesting recent article on Europe and NATO. The only thing is that the word ‘strong’ should still be put in quotation marks if we are talking about NATO without the US, i.e. only Europe.

Europe’s recent round dance and photo reflections in Brussels show that in a state of nervous paralysis, Europe is incapable of taking drastic steps that would indicate a desire to take its destiny into its own hands – it still has no key decisions on military aid, post-war security guarantees, or Ukraine’s EU membership. The fate of Europe is still in the hands of Washington, which is pulling the European boat along as a geopolitical tugboat.

If Europe continues to dance around the table, Washington will accomplish this mission itself, which it is doing, and Europe will lose its moment of truth

Europe’ needs the United States to finally end the war in Ukraine. But the United States needs Europe to successfully accomplish this task.’

Given Europe’s indecisive behaviour, we can be sure that the first part of the thesis, which is mentioned above and is the main topic of a recent article in Foreign Affairs, ‘Europe’s Moment of Truth’. But the second part of the thesis is questionable: Washington is giving Europe the opportunity to contribute effectively to the end of the war by participating in the post-war destiny of Ukraine, but if Europe continues to dance around the table, Washington will accomplish this mission itself, which it is doing, and Europe will lose its moment of truth.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.