The prevailing complex political situation coupled with the worst security environment in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is leading to dangerous perceptions sounding alarms as if the region would become a virtual extension of Afghanistan.

Almost all districts of the province have functional networks of the terrorists’ organizations. The southern districts and merged tribal regions have been fully or partially in control of militants; where the security people are constrained to stay at their bases as the sun goes down. Worst, the federal and provincial governments and security establishment – all seem to be passing the buck and practically doing nothing.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s growing militancy and security challenges risk turning it into the ‘badlands’ of Pakistan.

Undoubtedly, if the current state of affairs persists on political and complex security fronts, it won’t take much longer before the entire region west of Indus become the ‘bad lands’ of Pakistan – a euphemism once used for formerly federally administered tribal areas.

Many pundits feared during the merger of FATA with the province of KP that if no major socio economic, governance and administrative reforms follow, the merger would turn the entire Khyber Pakhtunkhwa into old FATA. The developments, sadly seem to be proving the pundits right.

The entire province, barring few districts, is facing a big challenge of hydra-headed militancy and religious extremism with shrinking spaces for socio-cultural, trade and economic activities; forcing the people to migrate and shift their wealth and businesses to Punjab and Sindh.

The closure of Trade and businesses is leading to mass unemployment. The burgeoning population, particularly the youth, is disillusioned, harboring deep hatred against the state and state institutions. This growing hate and extreme dislike for the establishment is finding its expression in the growing popularity of organization like Pashtun Tahafuz Movement and even Pakistan Tehrik Insaf, pitched against the federal government. The PTM and PTI have massive attraction by providing platforms to the youth to vent anger and scorn against the state and security establishment.

To address the security challenges posed by the militants’ networks and escalating anti-state sentiments, particularly amongst the youth, serious and immediate efforts are needed with multi-faceted approach including kinetic actions. A wide array of socio-economic and political engagement of communities is very much needed to address the root causes of violent extremism.

Economic stagnation and unemployment fuel discontent, driving youth toward anti-state movements like PTM and political parties like PTI.

This requires a whole of the state approach involving concerted efforts with strong coordination amongst federal and provincial administrations supported by the security establishment. However, this doesn’t seem feasible in the current circumstances since the PTI government put in place eight months ago by the people of the province has focused on confronting the federal government and has thrice tried to “invade” Islamabad, the last attempt on November 24-27.

A cursory look at the eight month rule of the Pakistan Tehrik Insaf government would reveal that the Gandapur government is least interested in the administration of the province or its socio-economic uplift. The party leadership is spending all its energies and the provincial resources on pressuring the federal government and security institutions to release its imprisoned leaders. Since taking seat of power in Peshawar, PTI is pursuing a policy of uninterrupted street demonstrations against the federal government and continuing political protest marches towards Islamabad almost each month.

Chief Minister Ali Amin Gadapur seems focused on appeasing the incarcerated Imran Khan to ensure his hold on provincial power while the party seems fractured with many power groups vying for power, ready to take his position if Imran Khan gets disillusioned with Gandapur. The presence of Bushra Bibi in Peshawar, who practically led the November march to Islamabad makes the situation much more complex.

In the fractured polity of the PTI, CM Gandapur has sidelined many party stalwarts from holding important party and government positions.

Presently, the group led by Ali Amin including Murad Saeed, Shibili Faraz, Sheikh Waqas Akram and Shahid Khattak is running the entire show. Senior party leaders including former speaker National Assembly Asad Qaiser, Ali Muhammad Khan, Atif Khan, Junaid Akbar, Shakeel Khan, Mushtaq Ghani, Sheheryar Afridi, Arbab Sher Ali and others are sidelined. Undoubtedly, they are very unhappy and upset with Ali Amin’s policies regarding the governance and the party affairs, seem helpless and have opted silence.

PTI’s provincial government focuses on federal confrontation, neglecting governance and socio-economic development in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Interestingly, the rank and file of the party particularly the youth that forms the core of the party – is least concerned or bothered about the factional fights or fissures or even the performance of provincial administration. PTI youth have been indoctrinated with a strong belief that the party especially its founder – Imran Khan – has been wrongly prosecuted by the establishment under false charges of corruption and bad governance and when he gets free, the rivers of honey and milk will flow into the province.

For the young Turks of the party, Imran Khan is the icon of resistance. They believe Mr. Khan has sacrificed luxurious life for their better future and is a lone fighter against the powerful establishment. This anti –establishment narrative has a magnetic pull for the youth in particular and ordinary people in general as there already existed a lot of resentment against policies pursued by the security establishment in Pakhtunkhwa and merged districts for decades.

On the other hand the central government and the security establishment are weary of PTI street power, resilience and skills of forming popular narratives. Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Pakistan People’s Party government at the centre is primarily focused on Punjab and Sindh introducing good governance, reforms in social sectors, diverting development projects and resources there.

It seems as if the federal government is oblivious of the worst security situation, dying trade and economic activities in Pakhtunkhwa and seems content with the PTI focused on street agitation rather than the governance mandate given to them by the people of the province.

It is clear that the federal coalition partners want to prove to the people of the province that the PTI provincial government is leadership is incapable of governing the province and lacks the agenda and the skillset for the development of the province as well as the country. PTI is being presented as an anarchist gang with the only expertise in bad mouthing and hyperbole. The PTI is also being projected as the opposition for the sake of the opposition and is only busy in disrespecting the state institutions and friend countries of Pakistan.

Federal coalition partners focus on Punjab and Sindh, leaving KP’s deteriorating conditions unaddressed.

The PML-N and PPP coalition block is also showing no interest in their own party organizational structures, which are in complete disarray in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The PML-N and PPP have left the party provincial chapters on their own, leading to intense grouping and demoralized workers.

PPP – once a popular party in the province- is so weak today that in almost one year the party has changed its provincial heads for almost a dozen times. The party current provincial head will be hardly known to the party workers, while the central leaders are shy of visiting across the Indus to interact with their party workers.

The PML-N, once enjoyed a popular vote banks in Hazara division, Kohat and Peshawar districts, has been also facing leadership crises for almost a decade. Most of its central leaders from the province including Iqbal Zafar Jaghra, Pir Sabir Shah, Mehtab Abasi and others have been sidelined and party district and Tehsil organizations are practically dysfunctional.

Both PPP and PMLN are apparently happy within their respective strong holds of Sindh and Punjab and busy further fortifying their positions to deny PTI vote bank there.

The nationalist Awami National Party is suffering from a political fatigue due to lack of charismatic leadership. The party is devoid of crowd pulling narratives and is suffering from an ambivalent syndrome with the security establishment. The relatively young leadership that took over the party command had blindly supported the security establishment for a possible greener pasture.

A whole-of-state approach is urgently needed to tackle militancy, youth disillusionment, and governance failures in the region.

However now disillusioned and demoralized by the elections results, they have gone totally in the opposite direction. The party has undergone a major organizational shake up brining new faces while sidelining majority of the party old guards.

The only opposition to the PTI in Pakhtunkhwa today is the religio-politico outfit of Jamiat ul Ulemai Islam of Maulana Fazal Rehman. The Maulana’s only strength is his captive street power and strong religious narratives. However, it’s very unlikely for JUI (F) to solely challenge the growing vote bank of PTI and its powerful narratives of the social media in near future.

To warn the country political and security elite of the prevailing situation in Pakhtunkhwa, one has to borrow few lines from “The Second Coming” of William Butler Yeats;

Turing and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.