From 6th to 10th May 2025, Pakistan and India witnessed yet another military conflict. A short lived but the most intense military conflict since 1971 war. The conflict ended with US mediation which led to a ceasefire and now both countries have agreed to move troops back to April 30^th 2025 level on both sides hinting moving towards a new phase of peace, notwithstanding Indian announcement that their military action (Operation Sindoor) is only paused not completed.

US President Trump’s statement issued announcing ceasefire mentioned Kashmir as the root cause of all conflicts between Pakistan and India

Kashmir has once again emerged as the epicenter of this escalatory conflict between two nuclear armed rivals in South Asia. US President Trump’s statement issued announcing ceasefire mentioned Kashmir as the root cause of all conflicts between Pakistan and India. Ruling BJP had multiple times announced the suspension of IWT as part of its political discourse and Pahalgam incident on 22^nd April 2025 provided BJP with perfect pretext of its suspension. Post Pahalgam chain of events underscored how Kashmir’s unresolved status, water politics, and state-sponsored terrorism are interwoven into a volatile tapestry that threatens regional stability and global security.

Pakistan, already water-stressed, depends on the Indus for 90% of its agricultural irrigation has declared Indian suspension of IWT an act of war

Indus Water Treaty (IWT) remains central working framework between Pakistan and India for peaceful water sharing and has been a rare example of cooperation between India and Pakistan, surviving three full blown military conflicts. Brokered by the World Bank in 1960, the treaty allocated 80% of the Indus River system’s waters to Pakistan (western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) and 20% to India (eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej). Unfortunately, it’s collapsed in 2025—BJP government announced its suspension after accusing Pakistan about Pahalgam attack for which India has failed to produced even circumstantial evidence to the world community.

Suspension of IWT marks a seismic shift in South Asian geopolitics with strategic ramifications for national security of Pakistan and broader regional stability. India’s move risks catastrophic consequences including a fresh round of escalating conflicts under nuclear overhang. Pakistan, already water-stressed, depends on the Indus for 90% of its agricultural irrigation has declared Indian suspension of IWT an act of war. Disruptions in Indus water flow could deepen food insecurity and social unrest.

The treaty’s unraveling also reflects broader geopolitical shifts in the region. China’s construction of dams on the Brahmaputra (which feeds into the Indus basin) and its investments in Pakistan’s Diamer-Bhasha Dam project have heightened India’s anxieties about water security due to its increasing population. India already has become world’s largest population.  Meanwhile, natural disasters like climate change, glacial melting due to rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns also exacerbates the demands of more water. IWT framework lacks provisions for environmental crises but these factors are affecting both countries alike and can’t be good enough reason for unilateral suspension of IWT.

Indian actions are punitive and signal a recalibration of hydro-diplomacy as a tool of coercive statecraft

World Bank has made it clear that no country can do that without mutual agreement. Using lack of environmental provisions in IWT, India wants to portray this unilateral action as an unavoidable one but in reality, Indian actions are punitive and signal a recalibration of hydro-diplomacy as a tool of coercive statecraft. So, in order to make it more plausible India now has added another dimension to it; terrorism. Putting IWT in abeyance is echoing Modi’s 2016 warning that “blood and water cannot flow together”.  He repeated the same sentence during this conflict also.

Fundamental problem with this Indian case is absence of any evidence whatsoever. Pakistan is accused of using terrorism as part of its asymmetric warfare against much larger India. But since 2005, Pakistan moved away from this strategy and the recent armed rebellion in IIOJK is intrinsic reaction to the atrocities being committed by Indian occupying forces. Before recently launched Operation Sindoor, India orchestrated multiple assassinations of former Jihadi leaders inside Pakistan. Now when Kashmir has been highlighted as a dispute by US President, Indian foreign relation ministry launched a new information operation.

Indians attempts to link Kashmir with terrorism has met a dead end diplomatically

The Resistance Front (TRF)—a shadowy group that claimed responsibility of Pahalgam is being linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) which itself is a banned organization within Pakistan. Pakistan’s repeated offers for joint investigations were rejected by India without giving any reason. Indian PM Modi while addressing a rally after recent clashes once again echoed old mantra of Kashmir being integral part of India and stated that the only dialogue with Pakistan will be on terrorism sponsored by Pakistan. But Indian rhetoric met no support from international community unlike in the past and this is due to New Delhi’s inability to produce any evidence to support its allegations. Indian attempt to link Kashmir with terrorism has met a dead end diplomatically.

India’s response has evolved from restraint to relentless retaliation. Operation Sindoor (2025), employing precision standoff weapons like SCALP missiles and Harop drones, targeted terrorist infrastructure deep inside Pakistan, including Bahawalpur (JeM headquarters) and Muridke (LeT’s base). Contrary to Indian claims, all the victims in these attacks were civilians including women and children. Since 1971, this was the most aggressive Indian action against Pakistan that triggered a response from Pakistan where it hit 26 military installations inside India. Pakistan was able to control the escalation and forced Indian military to initiate ceasefire demands which finally came into effect at 5:00 PM PST on 10^th March after US President and his team talked to both sides.

Kashmir’s status remains the Gordian knot of South Asian geopolitics

Kashmir’s status remains the Gordian knot of South Asian geopolitics. India’s 2019 revocation of Article 370, stripping the region’s autonomy, intensified alienation among Kashmiris and triggered a new round of inbuilt native armed resistance against Indian oppression. The human cost is staggering: over 310,000 casualties since 1989, including disappearances, torture, rape, custodial killings, and mass displacement.

The 2025 crisis underscores how quickly diplomatic breakdowns can spiral. The suspension of the Shimla Agreement, closure of airspace, and expulsion of diplomats have pushed bilateral ties to a nadir.

Salvaging stability demands urgent steps:

1. Restoration of the IWT with dialogue on new clauses about climate-centric issues, improving data-sharing mechanisms as per new advancements in technologies and initiating steps to address glacial melt and water scarcity jointly or independently.
2. Third-party mediation, US must push both countries for sustained dialogue and some final settlement of Kashmir issue.
3. Sign a joint operational framework on fighting terrorism in which mechanisms for joint investigations, data sharing, and legal proceeding are well defined. Both sides must have access to accused on both sides of border.

Situation is tense but still there are ways to salvage the fragile peace

Kashmir is the central issue between Pakistan and India. It has to be solved to avoid next episode of Indian allegations of terrorism and then unilateral use of force which would trigger a stronger reaction from Pakistan just like it happened on 10^th May 2025. Current ceasefire is an opportunity for both sides to work towards trust building and then jointly solve issues like water scarcity, population growth, and environmental challenges.

Situation is tense but still there are ways to salvage the fragile peace. With growing influence of Hindutva nationalism and military modernization on both sides, any next conflict will be riskier and will escalate more rapidly and God forbid any episode of this periodic clashes after every few years can trigger a global level human catastrophe. Time to negate any such eventuality is now!

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.