India’s Minister for External Affairs Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is in Pakistan to attend the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (CHG) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In Pakistan, analysts and commentators are still trying to decipher what does India’s participation in the SCO meeting hold for relations between the two countries which are stuck in a gridlock since August 5, 2019. While some are interpreting Jaishankar’s presence in Islamabad as a good augury for bilateral relations, others do not seem to be very impressed or optimistic about prospects.

By keeping itself away from the summit in Islamabad, India would have conveyed a message that it is treating the SCO the same way as it does SAARC.

In Pakistan, we have the habit of creating unnecessary hype, especially when it comes to our relations with India. As he himself stated before his arrival in Islamabad, Jaishankar is not here for a bilateral meeting. He is here to attend the SCO summit as he did in October last year in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic. In fact, both Pakistani and Indian premiers never attended the CHG’s meetings. Unlike the other SCO member countries, we are parliamentary democracies. Accordingly, our prime ministers would attend the Council of Heads of State meetings which is the highest decision-making body of the SCO.

Let us be very clear. India has not done any favor to Pakistan by being present in Islamabad. SCO is an important organization, and by keeping itself away from the summit in Islamabad, India would have conveyed a message that it is treating the SCO the same way as it does SAARC. India had no other option but to attend the summit as Pakistan attended the SCO foreign ministers meeting in Goa, India, last year.

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Nor did Pakistan do any favor to India by inviting Prime Minister Modi. This is how things are in the SCO. Pakistan could not have invited to India’s foreign minister or vice president of India to the CHG of meeting. It was the prerogative of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to nominate anyone to represent India in Islamabad. And the obvious choice was Jaishankar given the vexed nature of India-Pakistan relations.

As for any possible breakthrough, chances are slim as neither country has proposed a bilateral meeting on the sidelines. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar would definitely have opportunities to shake hands with Jaishankar and exchange pleasantries. Anything happening beyond this is looking difficult at this stage, if not impossible. A meeting would take place only if the two countries have been in touch on the back channel and discussing how to break the deadlock as a meeting without any proper spadework would likely create more problems than addressing the issues at hand.

As for any possible breakthrough, chances are slim as neither country has proposed a bilateral meeting on the sidelines.

Pakistan can ill-afford to agree to resume talks under the framework as contained in the lopsided Ufa Joint Statement of 10 July 2015. India’s unilateral and illegal actions on August 5, 2019, abrogating the special status of the occupied Jammu and Kashmir, was too serious a step to be ignored by Pakistan. In my assessment, India may be willing to resume a formal dialogue process without any preconditions, for that would further undermine Pakistan’s principled position on Kashmir. Hence, I have been suggesting that engaging on the back channel would make more sense from Pakistan’s perspective than resuming formal talks. Pakistan must be certain whether or not India is ready to have result-oriented talks on Kashmir. More of the same would not work.

Some in Pakistan are still wedded to the approach of taking baby steps aimed at creating a conducive environment, enabling the two countries to subsequently address the difficult and core issues like Kashmir.

I for one don’t see much merit in this approach especially after what India did to Kashmir. There is no space left for Pakistan to continue entertaining hackneyed and tested diplomatic approaches. India’s insistence since January last year to reopen the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty is a case in point. Simply put, it would like to have a one-sided agenda pushing Kashmir to the margins. I am not sure if Pakistan can accept unilateralism on Kashmir.

The question remains if India is able to dispense with its intransigence and move from conflict management to conflict resolution.

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There is no denying the fact that peace is in our mutual interest. The question remains if India is able to dispense with its intransigence and move from conflict management to conflict resolution. It needs to be stressed that regional organizations such as SCO and SAARC cannot realize their potential if there are serious intra-regional disputes.

As for the SCO, India has serious issues with both China and Pakistan. It is developing its strategic partnership with the US in leaps and bounds. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that India is the only SCO country that openly opposes China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Over time, India will likely become the biggest impediment to SCO activities. India cannot have its cake and eat it too. China and Russia may still like to keep India in good humor for a variety of reasons, but they would not like to see their initiative going down the drain.

Pakistan must play its cards skillfully and patiently. “Haste makes waste”.