The latest spate of violence unleashed between Israel and Hezbollah is the latest in its long history of conflict this time on the back of a circle of violence, retaliation, and diplomatic effort to find the answer in peaceful resolution. Hezbollah here hosted a dramatic series of events as it bombarded nearly 340 missiles into Israel on military sites, including its naval base at Ashdod as well as areas close to Tel Aviv. The unprecedented attack left several civilians injured and exposed the volatile nature of the region, which has reached a new level following a string of Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon that killed at least 20 people.
Hezbollah positioned its recent rocket attacks as acts of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and as a defender against Israeli aggression.
The history of this escalation is deep and rooted in ancient grievances; it is complex enough. Following the second wave of violence fueled by Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israeli further amplified its military actions against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah positioned its recent rocket attacks as acts of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and as a defender against Israeli aggression. This immediately spoke to the sentiments of many of the people of Lebanon and much of the greater Arab world which is often decidedly anti-Israeli.
Israel’s response was swift, but brutally indiscriminate. Military air strikes pounded locations throughout the country, including civilian areas, killing many non-combatants. It was condemned by the Lebanese government, describing this as a clear and blatant violation of sovereignty with direct attacks on moves to work towards a ceasefire, facilitated by international actors including the United States and the European Union. The human cost is staggering: over 3,700 reported dead in Lebanon since fighting escalated to this new level; nearly 1.2 million displaced within the borders-this translates to virtually a quarter of the population.
As each side continues its tit-for-tat violence, peace prospects appear bleaker than at any other time. That’s why the chief diplomat of the European Union has sought an immediate ceasefire with results of negotiations according to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which was adopted with the purpose of creating final peace after the war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. The unanimity in all involved parties seems quite hard to be achieved.
Hezbollah’s leadership publicly stated that the airstrike will be continued as long as Hezbollah continues its military operation. But the impacts of this war are much greater than short-term military issues. The repeated violence can create constant threats of instability to the state of Lebanon as well as the surroundings in the Middle Eastern region. An equally important dimension of the complexity is that Tehran financially backs Hezbollah as well as Hamas, since for Tehran both groups form essential agents in its policy of resistance against Israel and penetration by the West into the area. Other powers directly involved, or other groups deciding to join the conflict, would make a broader war in the regional framework likely.
The attacks already shut down schools and have heightened the security arrangements across northern Israel as its inhabitants become accustomed to the new status quo of living with an ever-potential threat of rockets from land. Public sentiment within Israel is a feeling of fear and anxiety. Against this background, the Israeli government battles to make its citizens feel safe while negotiating the geopolitical structure that has marked its relationship with Lebanon and Hezbollah.
The repeated violence can create constant threats of instability to the state of Lebanon as well as the surroundings in the Middle Eastern region.
This brings the second question – humanitarian situation in Lebanon can’t be left indifferent. The catastrophe and airstrikes on infrastructure and, in general, civilian life have led international organizations to plead for urgent humanitarian aid. Destruction often leaves a long-lasting effect upon the society due to the hurt feelings, and resentment may simmer over for generations.
Yet again, it appears that the latest flare-up between Israel and Hezbollah has reminded this troubled region just how fragile peace can be. Each side dug in for retaliatory action, and any way forward toward de-escalation has become a very hard slog. International diplomats work day and night to fight for a truce among warring sides, all out of view of the public. One might have hoped for a final settlement, one that would focus more on the deep-seated causes of this war rather than mere short-term security concerns. Lacking such efforts, Israelis and Lebanese are doomed to spend the rest of their lives locked into this cycle of violence with little hope for a peaceful future.
The Author is an independent geopolitics and security analyst. He writes on national security, military affairs, and economic diplomacy.