The world is witnessing a transformative period in global politics, from a country that used to be the sole dominant superpower in the United States. Shifting from a unipolar world to a multipolar order opens the doors to other major powers as they challenge the existing American-led global system. This waning US world order has created space for a nation like China, or Russia, or even other middle powers to fill the vacuum. The emergence of these powers with the formation of middle-tier countries is working upon changing the balance of global power.
Indeed, there are a number of reasons which have weakened the United States’ position. Whether through the successive governments’ policies or through the militarization approach of Washington, it seems that the single superpower’s fall may be inevitable. The realist international relations theory, articulated by writers like John Mearsheimer, attempts to explain this phenomenon as a result of changes in power distribution in an anarchic global system.
A rising China, backed by its economic might through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), presents a challenge to the once unrivaled US military and economic dominance. The BRI, having invested trillions of dollars in infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, has resulted in China successfully positioning itself as an indispensable economic partner for developing countries.
Whether through the successive governments’ policies or through the militarization approach of Washington, it seems that the single superpower’s fall may be inevitable.
According to statistics, China’s trade volume during 2022 exceeded $6 trillion compared to the US trade of $4.9 trillion. This economic leverage has enabled China to lure nations that have become disillusioned with the US hard-power approach. The globalization era has also nurtured technological progress that has made it possible for the Third World to partake in the economic and knowledge benefits hitherto arrogated by the West.
According to liberal theorists, globalization merely redistributes power because of its leveling effect. The old torchbearer of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism, Washington is battling to find its footing in an emerging order with the diffusion of power changing global governance. In this regard, the rise of BRICS; namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa- that will account for over 31.5% of total global GDP in 2023, while surpassing the G7’s 30.7%. At a different, economic level, this shift challenges the dollar-centric financial system and heralds the decline of the US-led economic and political order. The policies of successive US administrations have accelerated its decline.
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For example, the militarization of regions, the invasion of Iraq, and the perpetuation of conspiracy theories have all damaged Washington’s global image. The invasion of Iraq in 2003, based on unverified claims of weapons of mass destruction, cost over $2 trillion and destabilized the Middle East. The 20-year war in Afghanistan, which ended in a chaotic withdrawal in 2021, raised questions about the effectiveness of US military strategies. The failures have emboldened the rivals, Russia and China, who now don’t hesitate to challenge the US not only militarily but also economically and ideologically. In addition, the crisis of leadership within the US has undermined its ability to project influence globally.
Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Climate Accord and cut funds to NATO sowed distrust among allies, signaling a step back from multilateralism.
Former President Donald Trump’s slogan to “Make America Great Again” underlined the turn towards isolationism, reduced funding for international projects, and the tackling of domestic issues alone. Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Climate Accord and cut funds to NATO sowed distrust among allies, signaling a step back from multilateralism. Liberal international relations theory affirms institutions and alliances as important for maintaining stability at a global level. The US retreat from these responsibilities has given China and Russia a chance to fill the power vacuum by offering alternative models. Domestically, Washington is facing major problems that undermine its hegemonic reach.
Political polarization, the erosion of democracy, and economic inequality are all contributing factors. The top 1% of Americans controlled 32.3% of the nation’s wealth in 2022, highlighting the failures of neoliberal capitalism. Constructivist theorists argue that domestic instability undermines a nation’s ability to project soft power. Domestically, internal issues like systemic racism, Capitol Riots, and gun violence diminish the nation’s generally held image as the epitome of democracy. The dependency on hard power over soft power has also dented its global standing in Washington.
The decline of US hegemony is a multifaceted phenomenon pulled by internal weaknesses, flawed foreign policies, and the rise of alternative power centers.
In sharp contrast with the US’s militaristic strategies, China’s cooperative approach espouses the “win-win” foreign policy model. For example, while Washington relied on sanctions to influence the policy of states, Beijing has turned to geoeconomic initiatives such as BRI to bring closer developing countries. Sanctioned by the United States, Iran and Russia are now aiming at the establishment of alternative economic systems, even including the establishment of a BRICS currency to bypass the dollar. Realists view it as a direct challenge to US hegemony, since the adversaries bond together to achieve power equivalent to that of the hegemon. The inability of Washington to address issues that the world has to face further decreases its ranking.
For instance, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine war, and civil wars in Africa expose its dwindling influence as a mediator. While tens of billions are spent on military aid to Ukraine, the United States has yet to prevent Russian aggression, nor obtain a resolution to the war. Liberal theorists contend that effective international leadership requires more than merely traditional security threats, but rather non-traditional ones such as climate change, poverty, pandemics. The US, however, has too frequently acted in accordance with short-term strategic advantages rather than long-term solutions. The rise of China and Russia as revisionist powers is reshaping global alliances.
China’s trade relations with over 140 countries and its ability to outpace the US in infrastructure investment have won it allies worldwide. Similarly, Russia’s use of energy diplomacy has strengthened its ties with countries like India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Constructivist scholars argue the power of narratives and have both China and Russia positioned themselves as champions of multipolarity against the Western aggrandizement. The decline of US hegemony is a multifaceted phenomenon pulled by internal weaknesses, flawed foreign policies, and the rise of alternative power centers.
Realist, liberal, and constructivist insights provide an explanation of how both relationship dynamics involving power, institutional failures, and ideational changes intersect. In such a multipolar order, one is left questioning whether it’s possible for the United States to orient itself to fit into the realities of the 21st century and reclaim some semblance of its international mantle. Or will it continue in its ways of ceding influence to emerging powers like China and Russia? The answer will shape the future of international politics and determine whether Washington can fulfill its role in addressing humanity’s most pressing challenges.
The author is a research analyst having keen interest in foreign policy, history, geopolitics, and international relations.