In military discourse, two pre-requisites, intent and capability, are certain to accomplish a mission. Just imagine someone has an intent but not the matching capability or vice versa it is impossible to arrive at the desired outcome. While the capability rests with many countries, the intent to employ it adroitly makes the difference. Few countries have demonstrated this art and Iran is one of them. Notwithstanding the outcomes, it fought the 8-year war against Iraq and most recently it showed this grit against Israel.

Iran has historically countered Israel both directly and through regional proxies, reflecting its strategic resilience in the Middle East.

Iran has been in the news for the past few weeks, whether it is retreating from Syria, contemplating shifting its capital city to the shores of the Persian Gulf, signing a strategic agreement with Russia, or visiting Pakistan with the Iranian Chief of General Staff. Iran seems to be engaged in active security diplomacy. Although Iran has always been a security-conscious country in the turbulent Middle East, what has caused this vigor this time is governed by a few salient factors.

Iran is the only country that has challenged Israel both directly and indirectly for decades. During the recent Gaza conflict, Israel faced tough confrontations with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, all supported by Iran. Israel and Iran, for the first time, had a direct spat in which an exchange of ammunition was witnessed. On Oct 26, 2024, Israel carried out an aerial attack against Iran, in retaliation to Iran’s attack on Israel on Oct 01, 2024, in which more than a hundred Israeli aircraft, missiles, and drones participated.

According to reports, Iran’s air defense system, missile launching pads, missiles, and drones’ production facilities were targeted and damaged. The attacks went as deep inside as close to Tehran, while some reports also suggest attacking drones went beyond that in the north. Being strategically located, Iran has premised its warfighting capability on its presence in the Persian Gulf, its proximity to Gulf states and Israel, and its contiguity to Iraq which affords access to Syria. It therefore supported proxies to keep threats at bay.

A few steps taken by Iran after the attack on October 26, 2024, evidence of the severity of the damage inflicted on it. For instance, despite its traditional and historical precedents, Iran did not respond to Israel’s attack on October 26, 2024. It retreated swiftly from Syria when the rebels charged against Bashar Al Assad’s Damascus. There have been talks about shifting the capital of Iran to the shores of the Persian Gulf.

Iran has concluded a strategic agreement with Russia and the Iranian Military Chief has ostensibly started touring regional countries first being Pakistan. The current situation has certainly mandated Iran to review its security calculus and undertake measures to ensure security in the upcoming era which has an added caveat of Mr Trump taking over as 47th POTUS.

The proposed capital relocation to the Persian Gulf underscores Iran’s dual focus on economic and security imperatives.

Needless to say Mr Trump during his last tenure in year 2018 retreated from JCPOA and sabotaged the whole mechanism that had been constituted between Iran, western countries, and the IAEA after years of hard work. There is also a need to remember that Mr Trump is apparently against wars and armed conflicts yet not against creating war hysteria which helps the US Military Industrial Complex sell weapons to the “allies,” ultimately earning dollars to the US economy. Iran’s anxiety is therefore not unfounded.

The world learned hard lessons during the Iran-Iraq war when the Persian Gulf was disturbed due to the famous Tanker War. Henceforth stringent measures were instituted resulting in heavy deployment of forces in and along the shores of the Persian Gulf by the extra-regional countries vis US, UK, and France. This time also, during the spat between Iran and Israel, the Persian Gulf was not fiddled with.

The proposition of shifting Iran’s capital city to the Persian Gulf although professed for economic reasons, has a security connotation too. The current capital of Tehran is disadvantageously located in the center and lies near some military industrial and strategic sites. It is always vulnerable to attacks, more so after a breach of air defense set up by Israel. It was frequently attacked during the Iran-Iraq war and during of late tussle with Israel.

As alluded to earlier, post Iran-Iraq war has endeavored to keep safety and stability in the Persian Gulf so that world trade is not disturbed. Persian Gulf therefore enjoys inherent impunity and most of the capital cities of countries bordering the Persian Gulf except KSA, Iraq, and Iran lie onthe  Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Under this logic, in case Iran’s capital is shifted to the coast of the Persian Gulf it will make it extremely difficult for any country to attack it and consequently disturb the Persian Gulf.

Iran and Russia on Jan 17, 2025, concluded a strategic agreement reaffirming support to each other. Both countries have had close relations, especially during the last decade. Iran has been a recipient of Russian weapon systems, especially for air defense. It acquired S-300 batteries which were reportedly damaged during Israel’s attack on Oct 26, 2024. Iran has been trying to upgrade its air defense system with the acquisition of S-400 batteries.

Iran’s strategic agreement with Russia highlights a reinforced political and military partnership amidst shifting global alignments.

Similarly, there are reports that Iran has supported Russia through the provision of drones and missiles for its war effort against Ukraine. In the event of Mr Trump’s ascension to power, Iran needs a credible ally who can support it in and out of the UN. Russia in the current scenario stands out to be a natural choice for Iran. The agreement is thus strategic messaging from both countries exhibiting a political shield against the opposite bloc.

The Iranian Chief of General Staff visited Pakistan on Jan 20, 2025, and held meetings with the President of Pakistan and the Chief of Army Staff wherein matters of mutual interest and enhancement of defense cooperation were discussed. Although there have been border issues between both countries last of which emerged in Jan 2024, Iran has always been interested in military training from Pakistan.

Iranian air force pilots have been trained in Pakistan while both countries have regularly exchanged officers for mid-career courses at each other’s institutions. Iran would certainly like Pakistan to enhance the scope and scale of this training. It is expected that Iranian high-ranking military officials will continue this odyssey to other regional countries also.

Military cooperation between Iran and Pakistan signals a recalibration of regional alliances and defense collaborations.

Iran’s review of its security dynamics is but natural and every thriving nation is expected to do it. Iran is situated at the geographical bounds, which are abound by crises. Last to forget, its strategic outreach in the region has been somewhat dented due to fifteen months-long the Gaza conflict.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.