In the 21st century, a major shift is apparent: the economy is now driving politics between nation-states. As India’s unilateral and illegal actions against Pakistan, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, are rising at an alarming rate, Pakistan needs to officially convey a message to the regional and international players that water security is a major concern in Pakistan’s nuclear policies and any kind of economic destruction to the assets of Pakistan will result in massive retaliation.

The South Asian region has always been in intense conflict and rivalry between the two regional nuclear arms bearers, India and Pakistan.

The South Asian region has always been in intense conflict and rivalry between the two regional nuclear arms bearers, India and Pakistan. In 1998, when there was an overt nuclearization of the South Asian region, it was felt that the nuclear brinkmanship was imminent. No doubt, nuclear deterrence has always played its crucial role in preventing a full-scale war, but the doctrinal changes and evolution of Indian strategic thinking have created vulnerabilities for Pakistan and the South Asian regional stability. From the  Sunderji Doctrine (1980s) to its Land Warfare Doctrine (2018), the Indian military has continuously transformed its strategies to fill operational gaps, create synergy and integration in its triad forces, and execute realistic conventional limited war-fighting strategies.

“limited war under the nuclear overhang”

General V.P. Malik, the chief of army staff of the Indian Army during the Kargil War (1999), introduced the concept of “limited war under the nuclear overhang” around the year 2000. General V.P. Malik proposed that despite the nuclear capabilities of both India and Pakistan, it was still possible to engage in conventional warfare as long as it remained limited and carefully managed. Thus, this type of warmongering and offensive thinking has always been there in the Indian military against Pakistan. For this reason, India has always tried to take aggressive and violent unilateral actions against Pakistan to create a situation where it has the opportunity to engage in a conventional but limited war with Pakistan.

India has taken various unilateral actions to distort the water supply to Pakistan, including the buildup of the Kishanganga and Ratle water projects.

Soon after the alleged terrorist attack in Pahalgam on 22 April 2025, India blatantly blamed Pakistan for this incident and unilaterally started to take diplomatic steps against Pakistan. The most prominent was the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960. Under this treaty, three eastern rivers, including the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, came under Indian control, while three western rivers, including the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, were officially allocated to Pakistan. This treaty holds vital significance for Pakistan in terms of its national security and economic well-being. Being an agrarian economy, Pakistan requires a large amount of water for the right crops at the right time. Viewing this sensitive point of trigger for Pakistan, India has taken various unilateral actions to distort the water supply to Pakistan, including the buildup of the Kishanganga and Ratle water projects.

In this regard, India has recently suspended the Indus Waters Treaty and unilaterally blocked the water supply to Pakistan. The basic motive behind this action is to avenge Pakistan for its involvement in the Pahalgam terror attack. India, from the very beginning, had unofficially tried to disturb the water supply of Pakistan by allowing an immense water supply to Pakistan when there wasn’t any need, and blocking the water supply when our agricultural lands required it. But, recently, under the false flag operation of Pahalgam, the Indian administration of Narendra Modi has created a hype in its public to gain national support and soon, launched Operation Sindoor against Pakistan. In a tit-for-tat reply, Pakistan’s armed forces launched Operation Bunyan ul Marsoos to retaliate against Indian aggression.

India is now using economic and diplomatic tools to breach Pakistan’s sovereignty and national security.

Both countries reached a temporary ceasefire on 10 May 2025 under international pressure, especially from the US. The military escalations ended, and both states were forced to sit at the negotiation table to resolve the contentious issues between them, including the Kashmir issue. Till then, India had declared that the Kashmir issue would not be discussed in negotiations, while Pakistani officials are of the view that the Kashmir issue will be central to their negotiations. A deadlock is still there between the states. Observing all the losses inflicted by Pakistan’s armed forces and international condemnation, India is now using economic and diplomatic tools to breach Pakistan’s sovereignty and national security. India is still trying its best to subdue the economy of Pakistan by blocking its water supply. This will create a dire situation if not resolved diplomatically. As the economy of Pakistan is highly dependent on its agricultural production, the distortion in water supplies would result in a loss of tons of agricultural products, affecting overall GDP and creating food shortages in Pakistan.

Indian strategic thinking is well aware of Pakistan’s nuclear policy and the red lines prescribed in its doctrine. There are four major red lines of Pakistan’s nuclear threshold, which include:

• India attacks Pakistan and conquers a large part of its territory.
• India destroys a large section of its land and air forces.
• India proceeds to economically strangulate Pakistan.
• India pushes Pakistan into political destabilization or creates large-scale internal subversion.

In case of heightened tensions and India’s constant suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan’s nuclear threshold will be crossed

In the context of the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India and its unilateral steps to avert water supplies to Pakistan, the third red line prescribed in the nuclear doctrine of Pakistan is economic strangulation. It simply refers to any type of aggression by rival states to create economic vulnerabilities for Pakistan, which includes a potential Indian naval blockade of Sindh province and coastal cities of Baluchistan province and the blockade of the Indus water flow. In case of heightened tensions and India’s constant suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan’s nuclear threshold will be crossed.

“If India blocks our water, we will choke their breath. It is some madman who can think that he can stop water for 240 million-plus people of this country; nobody dares to stop water for Pakistan.”

Signaling towards this, Pakistan’s Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (DG-ISPR), Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif, explicitly declared, “If India blocks our water, we will choke their breath. It is some madman who can think that he can stop water for 240 million-plus people of this country; nobody dares to stop water for Pakistan.” These statements explicitly highlight the sensitivity of any economic strangulation against the Pakistani nation.

The government of Pakistan has to consider the international arena to further pressurize India not to elevate the issue beyond the nuclear threshold of Pakistan.

In conclusion, Indian political and strategic thinking must understand the susceptibility of the Indus Waters to the national security of Pakistan. On the other hand, the government officials of Pakistan must explicitly convey their nuclear red line of economic strangulation to the Indian side repeatedly. The government of Pakistan has to consider the international arena to further pressurize India not to elevate the issue beyond the nuclear threshold of Pakistan. The South Asian region is once again on the brink of nuclear war between the two regional rivals. Immediate international intervention to resolve the issue of the Indus Waters Treaty is a dire need of the region today.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.