A recent report on the Indian manufactured ammunition entering Ukraine during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has again shifted attention on India’s growing defense industry and its credibility in terms of compliance with international obligations on the export of military and dual-use items. India has long-maintained tradition of violating international legal and regulatory frameworks for its strategic ambitions.

India, the world’s largest arms importer, is trying to boost its defense industry to become a leading arms exporter.

India has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) besides obtaining a Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver, which has been utilized for bolstering military capabilities in nuclear domain. It also exports arms to Myanmar’s military junta and had fueled the Sri Lankan civil war with weapon supplies in the past. And New Delhi is now involved in exporting artillery shells and other ammunition to Ukraine through European countries.

India, the world’s largest arms importer, is trying to boost its defense industry to become a leading arms exporter. Indian defense market has seen robust growth in recent years. The value of defense production in the country stood at $11.6 billion in 2018-19 and reached $15.3 billion in 2023-24. New Delhi has set a defense production target of $25 billion by 2025. However, no official Indian document enlists targeted interventions and strategies to boost defense production. There comes the most lingering question that can lead to strategic ambiguities: how can India continue the growth of its defense production?

India is increasing its defense production under the aegis of threat perception from China and Pakistan. Recently,  India’s Chief of Army Staff Manoj Pande said in a statement that renewed geopolitical tensions emphasize the need for reliable weapon supplies.

In addition to arms supplies to Indian army, New Delhi can export military equipment to the troubled regions or conflict zones primarily to Ukraine via European countries or the war-torn Middle East to boost its defense production. Commercially available customs records show that before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Indian defense export stood at $2.8 million and between February 2022 to July 2024 – during the Russian invasion of Ukraine – the figure increased significantly to $135.25 million. Seeing India’s growing ammunition exports to European states their net-user violations and increasing supply chains for Ukraine, Russian officials have raised the issue with India at least on two occasions.

Despite its poor nuclear safety and security record as well as expanding unregulated defense exports, India faces no pressure and criticism from the international community.

Similarly, several civil society groups, authors, activists, and lawyers have urged India in a press conference in New Delhi to stop arms export to Israel which is a direct violation of the Convention on Genocide signed and ratified in 1959. The speakers cited reports indicating that after Israel was accused of genocide by several international humanitarian aid organizations. However, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) and the Department of Defense Production repeatedly granted licenses to three companies — Munitions India Ltd, Premier Explosives Ltd, and Adani-Elbit Advance Systems India Ltd — to export arms and ammunition to Israel.

At the same time, several political leaders within India, including those from the opposition and Modi’s allies, have urged the government to stop contributing to the heinous genocide of the Palestinian people perpetrated by Israel.

Despite its poor nuclear safety and security record as well as expanding unregulated defense exports, India faces no pressure and criticism from the international community. Given this, India is likely to continue its arms export primarily because of five reasons even if they do not meet the international criteria.

First, changing geopolitical situations on India’s continental borders will force it to rely on internal supply sources to meet its strategic and security objectives. Second, new procurement of weapons will necessitate the replacement of nascent technologies with old obsolete equipment. Third, India’s internal security threats and growing militancy, security of a very vast landmass, and policing purposes will demand reliable internal arms and ammunition supplies. Fourth, the urge to gain economic growth and Modi’s Made in India initiative requires that defense production must grow by leaps and bounds. Fifth, higher investments in the arms manufacturing sector can make way for market competition and innovation that can again contribute to economic growth. Most importantly, it will leverage its role in the US grand strategy against China as a ‘net security provider’ to bypass international pressure.

In short, India’s growing unregulated arms exports have not only fueled war in Europe but also helped Israel cause a humanitarian crisis and a full-fledged genocide of the people of Palestine. New Delhi has also failed to ensure its credibility to comply with the international standards of arms export that reflect its ambitious mindset and the culture of realpolitik that respects no international standards, human dignity, or global peace, but power pursuit at the cost of others.