India, aspiring to be a global leader, is focusing much on its economy, military, and technology. India’s ambition towards missiles is not a story unknown to the world. Through massive development, India seeks to become a regional hegemon, disturbing the strategic stability of South Asia. India is constantly developing, procuring, and modernizing its tactical and strategic forces. Similarly, India is highly focused on long-range Missiles. Such a range in missiles is not just a threat to its neighbors, China and Pakistan, but also a threat to global peace.

India might be shifting from ‘Minimum Deterrence’ to ‘Maximal Ambition.

In recent years, India has made a considerable expansion in its missile Programme, procuring modern weapon systems such as Agni-IV and Agni-V. Formerly, in 2024, India tested its latest ballistic missiles – Agni-V with a range of 5500 Km. It is equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs). Which means it can aim multiple targets. The Agni-IV missile with a 4500km range and Agni-V is perceived as a strategic weapon that can target the entire China. Furthermore, the development of missiles beyond these ranges, such as Agni-VI, which is in the developing stage and is anticipated to have a range between 12,000-16000km, anticipates India’s stride for power projection and nuclear supremacy.

The missile development program in India under the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has undergone extensive evolution of the ballistic missiles short-range to highly skilled Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs). Recently, at the Kerala AeroExpo 2025, Indian scientists presented the Agni series, ranging between 700km to more than 10000km, from Agni-I to the under-development Agni-VI.

India’s development of ICBMs should ring alarm bells beyond South Asia, asserting that the globe will become vulnerable to India’s ICBMs in the future. Such long-range missiles complicate the global strategic environment.  With the integration of MIRVs and the acquisition of long-range strategic missiles, India wants to ensure Full-Spectrum Escalation Dominance.  Additionally, it not only destabilizes the region but also promotes a global arms race, threatening broader peace and security.

India wants to ensure Full-Spectrum Escalation Dominance.

To elaborate, equally alarming is the development of the K-series SLBMs, which are displayed in DRDO showings at the same expo. The K-15 possesses a range of 750 km, whereas the K-5 in development will have 5,000 km. The K-6 is estimated to reach 8,000 km, covering most parts of Europe, Asia, and even North America, assuming that it is launched by deployed submarines positioned on the frontline. These capabilities are of much more than India’s characterized desire for a credible minimum deterrence. Rather, it showcases global power projection.

This power projection prescribes that India might be shifting from “Minimum Deterrence” to “Maximal Ambition”. Although India has always promoted the so-called policy of No First Use. But increasing questions of the rationality of this doctrine have been raised even by the policymakers themselves in India. In 2019, India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh stated: “India has strictly adhered to the ‘No First Use’ policy. What happens in the future depends on the circumstances.”? This strategic uncertainty, combined with massive expansion in the missile and warhead systems, is no longer an act of restraint. Rather, it indicates the move to the offensive posture and possible preemption, this time rhetorical, doctrinal, and technological.

The modernization of India’s defense is reportedly backed by the rising aggressiveness of China. But missile development, particularly such devices and systems as the MIRVed Agni-V and other submarine-launched K-series, poses a threat not merely to the immediate neighborhood of India, but also the global international order. This situation creates a false sense of security in the minds of Indian planners while ignoring the rise of an arms race around the globe. In case of escalation of tension, arms race in the future can result in a nuclear exchange as countries feel vulnerable. Even though the government of India may rejoice in its technical achievement, the propagation of MIRV capability is a sign of a greater worrisome trend in international nuclear arsenals that is already showing signs of an emerging nuclear arms race with more threatening MIRVed missiles.

Uncontrolled missile modernization is creeping toward what should be deemed as normal for the world to accept.

To mitigate the risk, Global powers need to urge India to be more transparent and engage in arms reduction negotiations at the regional and international level. Likewise, South Asian countries, particularly through the use of back-channel diplomacy, need to pledge themselves to confidence-building measures (CBMs) to avoid unintentional escalation. The talks on some form of strategic restraint regime, earlier proposed by Pakistan but declined by India, may also be initiated to reduce the risk of a greater arms race in South Asia.

The growth of missile force by India, particularly switching to MIRVed ICBMs and improved SLBMs, deserves particular attention. This path is not a mere preservative exercise as such, but it runs the risk of disturbing the nuclear balance of deterrence not just in South Asia, but also on the globe. Uncontrolled missile modernization is creeping toward what should be deemed as normal for the world to accept. The 21st century requires strategic stability based on restraint, not on an arms race under the pretext of deterrence.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.