India has been aspiring to test, develop and acquire hypersonic missiles since 2008, as reflected by the statement of the DRDO official V.K Saraswat. In 2019-2020, India tested the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV). Last year, India test fired a hypersonic missile, as per the official press release to join the elite club of nations (US, China, and Russia) possessing advanced and sophisticated hypersonic missiles based on cutting-edge technologies.
Acquisition of hypersonic missiles by India will further stress the South Asian strategic stability
Acquisition of hypersonic missiles by India will further stress the South Asian strategic stability; however, a deeper look is required to verify the claim that India has developed hypersonic missiles or not. As per the official press release, the missile was quoted as a long range hypersonic missile. A detailed report by the UK Parliament Post characterizes a missile to be hypersonic, if it travels at Mach 5 with-in the earth’s atmosphere and performs terminal manoeuvres before hitting the target.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM’s) usually achieve a speed of Mach 20 during the terminal phase of the flight; however, this category of missiles can not be classified as hypersonic due to its inability to sustain hypersonic speed during the entire flight, especially inside the earth’s atmosphere, along with a lack of ability to perform terminal manoeuvres. Within these benchmarks, this article will be an evaluation to ascertain the fact whether or not India has developed a hypersonic weapon.
Hypersonic missiles are usually of two kinds: Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM’s) and Hypersonic boost Glide Vehicle (HGV’s) that is mounted as a payload on an aero-ballistic missile, usually an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). Following the missile test on Nov, 16 2024, the press release issued by Indian Ministry of Defence did not specify whether the tested missile was an HCM or it was an aero-ballistic missile containing an HGV payload.
The missile tested by India was a hypersonic cruise missile, not an HGV payload mounted on an aero-ballistic missile
To ascertain the kind of missile tested, its launch video will be analyzed while focusing on the following parameters: flight trajectory, kind of rocket booster used, exhaust signature and missile size and shape. The missile was launched from a mobile Teleporter Erector Launcher (TEL), and flew at a low altitude as compared to the traditional ballistic trajectory. The rocket booster used was small as compared to boosters used for ballistic missiles, thus the exhaust signature dimmed as soon as the cruise phase of the flight begun.
The launch video indicated that missile had aerodynamic wings for stabilizing the cruise flight. Prima facie, the missile tested by India on the 16th of November appears to be a cruise missile flying at hypersonic speeds. Accounting for the Indo-Russian collaboration for developing a hypersonic version of the BrahMos missile based on the scram-jet engines, it further lends credence to the argument that the missile tested by India was a hypersonic cruise missile, not an HGV payload mounted on an aero-ballistic missile.
Recently, an Indian website: Indian Defence Research Wing (IDRW) published a blog post that Indian DRDO is aspiring to develop an HGV capable of engaging targets up to 15000 km. A private firm HTNP is working on the project code named HGV-202F. However, as per open sources no data is available to track or confirm the progress on this project. It seems far-fetched that India will be developing this technology in the near future.
Russia and China took the lead vis-à-vis the U.S. in the development of HGVs, although the U.S has recently very successfully tested an HGV with a conventional payload. At this juncture, this claim that India is developing or has test fired an HGV lacks material evidence, and sounds implausible. This rhetoric appears to be driven by political expediency of the civilian leadership hinged on Modi’s ultra-nationalistic tendencies.
Indian development and testing of HCM’s will create a regional environment, in which Pakistan will feel pressured to diversify its nuclear delivery platforms
It is pertinent here to discuss the South Asian strategic stability landscape in reference to Indian acquisition of Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM’s). Ali Mustafa opines that development of HCM’s will not significantly alter the strategic balance in the region, as response time will not be reduced greatly, accounting for the contiguous borders between Pakistan and India. Although terminal manoeuvres performed by HCM’s will further complicate the response dynamics.
However, this acquisition reflects the transition in the Indian nuclear doctrinal thinking, as HCM’s could be used as a damage limiting option. In the absence of an elaborative missile & air defence system being acquired by Pakistan, and having no doctrinal provisions entailing nuclear war fighting with India; development of HCM’s by India will be counter-productive for it. Indian development and testing of HCM’s will create a regional environment, in which Pakistan will feel pressured to diversify its nuclear delivery platforms.
Geo-political undercurrents at the regional level cannot be ignored to understand a comprehensive picture of South Asian strategic stability. Indo-US quasi strategic partnership being manifested in the economic and military domains, further widens the economic asymmetry between India and Pakistan. US has been pitching India as a counter weight to China in the region. In a bid to curtail Chinese rise, US is providing India with latest defence equipment and cutting-edge technologies. But of particular concern is the decade long US technology transfer to India regarding high-end military technologies.
Such technology transfers have provided India with the ability to leap ahead of other competitors. However, in the process of acquiring such technologies, the strategic stability of South Asia may be deeply compromised. Through the arguments presented in this article, it might be apparent that with regards to the South Asian Strategic Stability dynamic, the presence and prevalence of hypersonic weapons poses no significant military advantage, rather it creates more questions than answers.
While India is being rewarded with high-end military technologies which can deeply impact the strategic stability of South Asia, it is Pakistan that is facing the brunt of sanctions by the US through the argument that Pakistan aims at targeting the US mainland
One of these significant questions is the facts that while India is being rewarded with high-end military technologies which can deeply impact the strategic stability of South Asia, it is Pakistan that is facing the brunt of sanctions by the US through the argument that Pakistan aims at targeting the US mainland. However, through the recent developments it might be apparent that it is India that has designs of developing a global range HGV, aimed at destabilizing not just South Asia but even challenge other nuclear armed states as well.
It spells out a significant challenge to the future of strategic stability of a region which houses three of the nine nuclear weapon states in the world
Meanwhile, the US argument for sanctions against Pakistani entities is deeply flawed if one is to assess the delivery vehicles that Pakistan currently possesses or even those that are under development. Pakistan’s missile acquisition remains India centric, and has no doctrinal provisions to engage targets beyond the region. As per CSIS data, Shaheen 3 (Medium-Range Ballistic Missile) is the longest-range missile (2750km) in Pakistan’s inventory, on the contrary India has test fired Agni-V (5000km) with a MIRV payload configuration. As per experts, Agni-V’s range can be extended to 7000km while adjusting the payload.
It seems irrational that the U.S. feels threatened by Pakistan’s missiles having 2750km range and feels secure with Indian Agni-V having range of more than 5000km. The duplicity of U.S policy towards nuclear nonproliferation will negatively impact the efficacy of global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime (NNPR). Considering Indian ambitions of adding HGVs into their inventory, it should ring alarm bells in the disarmament circles because it spells out a significant challenge to the future of strategic stability of a region which houses three of the nine nuclear weapon states in the world.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
