Indian Prime Minister Modi visited the US on February 12-13, after Donald Trump’s inauguration. He became the fourth world leader to meet Trump at the White House, where both the leaders discussed several key issues. The prominent among such discussions was the need to expand defense sales to New Delhi. What stood out was President Trump’s announcement to sell F-35 fighter jets to India.
This decision marked a significant leap in defense cooperation between the US and India. Moreover, it is important to highlight that this decision could have long-term consequences on India’s defense strategy
This decision marked a significant leap in defense cooperation between the US and India. Moreover, it is important to highlight that this decision could have long-term consequences on India’s defense strategy and its relationship with both the US and other global powers. The proposed sale of the F-35 presents an opportunity as well as a dilemma for the Indian Air Force. On the one hand, India is facing delays with its own LCA induction due to the time frame for HAL to produce these aircraft for the Indian Air Force. Recently, Indian Air Force Chief was heard criticizing the engineers at HAL for delayed deliveries of Tejas.
According to one report, by 2040 IAF is to procure 220 LCA HAL Tejas MK-I and 120 MK-II. However, due to delayed deliveries, this seems unlikely. Realistically, HAL was able to deliver just 40 jets in the last 36 years. “We started inducting it in 2016…We should go back to 1984 when the project was conceived. The aircraft flew 17 years later in 2001. Then, the induction started another 16 years later in 2016. Today we are in 2024 and I (Indian Air Force) do not have the first 40 aircraft…” Air Chief Marshal AP Singh said while speaking at the 21st Subroto Mukherjee Seminar on ‘Atmanirbharta in Aerospace.
The proposed procurement of said F-35s will further delay the LCA program. On the other hand, the IAF requires an upgrade due to the Pakistan Air Force confirming the acquisation of Chinese-made J-35 fighters. Similarly, the IAF is desperately looking for a solution for its depleting number of fighter jets with 31 operational squadrons against the sanctioned strength of 42.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) remains heavily dependent on Russian fighter jets. This transition has been notable, and the recent U.S. offer to supply F-35 fighter jets has taken Indian officials by surprise
In recent years, India has gradually shifted away from relying on Russian-made military equipment. However, the Indian Air Force (IAF) remains heavily dependent on Russian fighter jets. This transition has been notable, and the recent U.S. offer to supply F-35 fighter jets has taken Indian officials by surprise. According to reports, the proposal is still in its early stages and under consideration.
While the IAF already operates U.S.-made support and logistical aircraft such as the C-130J Super Hercules and C-17 Globemaster, transitioning to American-made fighter jets presents a significantly more complex challenge. Acquiring the F-35s would not only involve purchasing the aircraft but also require substantial investments in pilot training, technical staff, and infrastructure as well as per-hour operational cost. Furthermore, India would need to evaluate whether acquiring F-35s would align with its strategic requirements, particularly vis-à-vis Pakistan. This acquisition therefore extends beyond procurement into strategic considerations.
Air Marshal (retd) Anil Chopra, former Director General, the Centre of Air Power Studies has stated, “Self-reliance can’t be at the cost of reduced military capability.”
On the other hand, acquiring the F-35 would mean transferring priorities from the indigenous LCA fighter program. A significant amount of funds would be required to procure and operate even a single squadron of F-35s due to its high cost and operational requirements. That’s where the dilemma comes in where both options have their pros and cons and India has to choose between counterbalancing and indigenization of its military. Air Marshal (retd) Anil Chopra, former Director General, the Centre of Air Power Studies has stated, “Self-reliance can’t be at the cost of reduced military capability.”
The partnership between the US and India has emerged as a significant driver of economic growth and geopolitical stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Over the past two decades, the relationship has evolved from a tentative engagement to a strategic partnership, underpinned by shared democratic values and mutual economic interests. India’s robust economic growth, with its GDP expanding at an annual rate of 6-7%, has been bolstered by this partnership, which has facilitated trade, investment, and technological collaboration. However, the dynamics of this relationship extend beyond economics, as both nations navigate complex geopolitical challenges and strategic imperatives.
India views itself as a separate pole in the international order and has long prioritized strategic autonomy in its foreign policy
One of the key aspects of the U.S.-India partnership is its role in shaping the defense and security landscape of the region. India views itself as a separate pole in the international order and has long prioritized strategic autonomy in its foreign policy. This is evident with India’s diverse military acquisitions as this approach has allowed India to maintain a balanced stance in its relationships with major global powers, including the United States, Russia, and the European nations. However, as India seeks to modernize its military capabilities, it faces a delicate balancing act. At one point this balancing act will run out of its enchantment. For instance, the acquisition of advanced defense systems like the F-35 fighter jets from the United States could significantly enhance India’s air combat capabilities. However, such a move would come with some geopolitical strings as the U.S. typically imposes conditions on the use of its military equipment, particularly in relation to operating with rival states’ equipment i.e. Russian S-400s.
Similarly, a NATO ally Turkey, when purchased the S-400s from Russia, it was removed from the F-35 program due to concerns over interoperability and security risks. India, however, was given a waiver from Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) when it acquired a similar system from Russia. This waiver highlights the strategic importance the U.S places on its relationship with India. At that time, India was not operating any U.S.-made Fighter aircraft, which may be acceptable for U.S policymakers. This time though, the situation is far more complex, India’s growing reliance on U.S. military equipment includes platforms like Apache helicopters and P8I marine patrol aircrafts. Which means that future decisions with regard to military equipment sold to India carry greater weight on the relationship between both nations.
the U.S. will potentially impose restrictions on the use of the F-35 under certain scenarios, such as prohibiting its deployment alongside Russian-made systems like the S-400 or against certain nations
The acquisition of F-35 would align India more closely with the U.S., however, it could complicate India’s relationships with other nations, particularly Russia, with which it has a long-standing defense partnership. Moreover, the U.S. will potentially impose restrictions on the use of the F-35 under certain scenarios, such as prohibiting its deployment alongside Russian-made systems like the S-400 or against certain nations.
The associated cost with procuring and operating such aircraft as well as broader potential strain to its strategic autonomy would suggest that India will continue to prioritize flexibility and independence over alignment with any single power’s strategic framework
In conclusion, for U.S. policymakers, the decision to offer the F-35 to India should involve weighing the benefits of deepening defense ties along with the risks of compromising their own military equipment especially if aircraft like the F-35 is involved. It is unlikely that India will opt for the F-35 fighter jets in the near future. The significant costs associated with procuring and maintaining such advanced aircraft, coupled with the geopolitical constraints that would accompany their acquisition, present considerable challenges for New Delhi. India’s long-standing commitment to strategic autonomy and its desire to maintain a diversified defense portfolio make it improbable that it would accept the conditions and limitations tied to the F-35 program. While the capability of F-35 is considerably attractive, the associated cost with procuring and operating such aircraft as well as broader potential strain to its strategic autonomy would suggest that India will continue to prioritize flexibility and independence over alignment with any single power’s strategic framework.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
