Even Hellan Larsen in a recent article wrote on “Escaping Strategic Paralysis” where he delved into the concept of Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation and how nuclear armed states attempt to address military inaction borne out of the fear of nuclear war. In the article, he specifically talks about Pakistan-India nuclear dynamics and how India’s evolving nuclear policy has seen a myriad of change, albeit subtly.
The most recent development relating to India’s deterrence policy vis-à-vis Pakistan is a dedicated focus on escalation dominance and damage limitation strategies
The most recent development relating to India’s deterrence policy vis-à-vis Pakistan is a dedicated focus on escalation dominance and damage limitation strategies most notably characterized by bolstering credible first strike capabilities, also known as, counterforce targeting. Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang have also alluded to similar developments in India in their widely read paper, “India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrines and Capabilities”. Both the papers, however, revolve around the mistaken notion that Pakistan allegedly supports cross-border terrorism within Indian Occupied Kashmir, as if trying to justify India’s unhindered and highly destabilizing modernization of its nuclear forces.
The truth remains intact, however, that India has for the past seven decades failed to ensure sustained peace in the Kashmiri territory under its occupation. Nor does it realize that its heavy-handed approach in Kashmir only flares up more resentment in the ordinary people. India has not provided any substantive proof regarding Pakistan’s alleged involvement in the Pahalgam incident just as it has failed to provide evidence of the former’s involvement in previous attacks on Indian troops in the past.
The only advantage here is for India, whose fundamentalist government as well as a large chunk of its population chronically feed on war-mongering narratives and anti-Pakistan discourse
Pakistan has been tackling with its own terrorism problem for more than two decades, and its policymakers know well that there are no advantages to be derived from supporting militant outfits across the border. The only advantage here is for India, whose fundamentalist government as well as a large chunk of its population chronically feed on war-mongering narratives and anti-Pakistan discourse. This trend was amply highlighted in the recent Pak-India conflict where India’s massive misinformation campaign was exposed by Pakistan as well as independant observers from across the globe. However, continuing on the tradition of denial, pro-Indian media has not officially admitted to spreading fake-news, propaganda, and misinformation. Pakistan has time and again asked for impartial investigations into any militant attack and this time around Pakistan’s response remained the same.
India’s strategic paralysis still remains a reality. India’s massive retaliation policy, its conventional-pause strategy such as the ‘Cold Start’, or its subtle shift to damage limitation strategies such as counterforce targeting have failed to impress any meaningful effects on Pakistan. Even its massive air launched offensive coupled with conventional missile strikes did not impress any meaningful impact to India’s advantage – Pakistan responded with a strong resolve by downing India’s most advanced jet, the Rafale, as confirmed by the international media.
Policymakers in India have taken Joseph Goebbels statement at face value when he uttered his well-known quote, “a lie repeated a hundred times becomes the truth”
India’s self-constructed fantasy about Pakistan’s support for cross-border terrorism is a solo performance aimed at deliberately maligning Pakistan’s image in the international community. Perhaps policymakers in India have taken Joseph Goebbels statement at face value when he uttered his well-known quote, “a lie repeated a hundred times becomes the truth”. What’s more concerning is that as the West sees India’s potential as a tool to counter China, western academicians in congruence with their Indian counterparts are jumping into India’s narrative bandwagon of maligning Pakistan by blaming it for supporting militant outfits in Kashmir – again without providing any substantial evidence for their claims.
Pakistan once again proved its dominance in the domain of air-warfare after downing India’s most sophisticated attack aircraft, the Rafale, after India’s irresponsible attack across the International Border
The desperation in India is at its highest point. It has effectively failed to, in the words of India centric ‘experts’ to deter Pakistan. A more realistic way of putting it into words is that it has failed to bully Pakistan into a corner. But recent statements from India about suspending the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is one of the many desperate and utterly illogical signaling attempts by India to escape strategic paralysis. Indian fears of taking another military action against Pakistan and those fears were only exacerbated by the recent humiliation faced by the Indian armed forces and air force. Pakistan once again proved its dominance in the domain of air-warfare after downing India’s most sophisticated attack aircraft, the Rafale, after India’s irresponsible attack across the International Border.
By claiming to suspend the IWT, India is trying to lure Pakistan into a reaction. A reaction that will justify its aggressive stance against Pakistan. But Pakistan knows better that it should respond and not react. Contrary to India’s fantasies, Pakistan is not isolated by any standards. It still enjoys strategic level cooperation by its allies – namely China, the Gulf countries, Turkey, and Iran just to name a few.
The recent Indian statements are borne out of severe desperation and Pakistan should remain composed in its response by focusing on non-violent resolutions to the long-standing issue of water distribution
The costs of starting a fresh conflict with Pakistan remains high for India, and relatively higher than the benefits it will derive from any conflict. The recent Indian statements are borne out of severe desperation and Pakistan should remain composed in its response by focusing on non-violent resolutions to the long-standing issue of water distribution. However, this does not mean Pakistan should turn the other cheek if India departs on a misadventure. The country’s conventional and nuclear forces are the first line of defense and they will continue to play that role no matter what comes from the other side of the border similar to the resolute defensive measures taken by them in the post-Pahalgam Indo-Pak conflict.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
