In the early 1990s, India introduced the “Look East Policy” – a strategic initiative designed to advance ties with the Southeast Asian Nations and position the region as a gateway for Indian advances in the India Ocean Region (IOR). New Delhi sought to utilize the high seas of the IOR to foster economic growth and enhance diplomatic engagement.
India’s Act East Policy transitions from economic engagement to safeguarding regional stability amid China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific.
However, India’s role evolved in response to the changing geopolitical landscape, particularly China’s attempts to alter the regional status quo. This prompted New Delhi to adopt a doctrinal shift from ‘using seas to securing seas’. In 2014, India redefined its policy as “Act East” emphasizing the IOR and the Asia-Pacific as the biggest geopolitical arena of the 21st century.
The Act East Policy is an essential component of India’s Diamond of Necklace counter strategy against China’s String of Pearls. It is framed as peaceful and solely meant to safeguard Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs), which India views as integral to its power projection capabilities.
The multi-pronged strategy involves building ports, extensive coastal surveillance radars, operating airports in neighboring countries, expanding defense ties, and advancing bilateral relations. India’s pivot to East policies also enjoys synergy with Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific and South Korea’s New Southern Policy, which advocate for a rule-based regional order in the Asia-Pacific.
The primary impetus for India’s Act East policy stems from the perceived strategic challenge posed by China which stands as the leading trading partner for Asia-Pacific nations and a significant investor in their infrastructure development. China’s rapid military modernization, its growing power projection capabilities, wolf warrior diplomacy, and economic growth coercion are contributing to the emergence of a complex and contested Asia-Pacific, potentially undermining and challenging the long-term strategic objectives of major powers in the region, including India.
New Delhi sees the intensifying great power competition in the Asia-Pacific as an opportunity to enhance its regional presence, assert its role as a major power, and strategically leverage partnerships to safeguard its core strategic objectives. The frequency and scope of India’s defense diplomacy, military exercises, ministerial visits, and arms sales have significantly increased.
The India-ASEAN trade volume has grown from USD 9 billion in 2002 to USD 131.75 billion in 2022-2023, emphasizing economic synergy.
It has accelerated its naval modernization plan that calls for the purchase of over 200 naval aircraft, modern warships, Scorpen-class, and nuclear-powered submarines to increase its power projection capabilities effectively. In addition, New Delhi is also a part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a strategic partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and has bilateral relations with the Island states and littorals of the Asia-Pacific region.
The abrupt changes in the global economic outlook at the End of the Cold War and India’s liberalization plans strengthened the notions of multifaceted trade relations with the East. These imperatives forced New Delhi to look east which began by trade relations but rapidly extended to other areas. In 1992, India began formal engagement with the ASEAN countries as a Sectoral Dialogue Partner which was elevated to the status of Dialogue Partner in 1995.
This relationship further advanced when New Delhi’s status was upgraded to Summit-Level Partner in 2002, culminating in the establishment of a Strategic Partnership in 2012, primarily focused on “4Cs”: Culture, Connectivity, Commerce and Capacity Building.
The trade volume between India and the ASEAN expanded from USD 9 billion in 2002 to USD 131.75 billion in 2022-2023. Projections estimate that the volume of the trade will surpass USD 150 billion by 2023. Through the India-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the countries aim to reduce and eliminate duties 76.4 percent on goods and aim to further advance connectivity and trade. Technology is another significant sector. India and Singapore have signed a MoU on the semi-conductor agreement, highly indispensable for economic growth in the 21st century.
India’s Act East Policy encompasses a wide array of strategic and economic benefits for India including enhanced power projection capabilities, military modernization, diplomatic engagement, and economic growth which position India in a relatively advantageous position to Pakistan. It would further intensify Pakistan’s threat perception toward India and profoundly affect strategic stability in the region. It will usher in a new phase of insecurities in the security establishment of Pakistan and could have profound implications for the region’s strategic stability.
New Delhi’s naval modernization, including six SSBNs with MIRV-equipped SLBMs by 2040, poses challenges to regional maritime security.
New Delhi’s growing naval capabilities – including modernization efforts, increasing asymmetries, and power projection enhancements – can pose a significant challenge to Pakistan’s maritime security. Estimates project that India will have incorporated six SSBNs with MIRV-equipped SLBMs, an additional 6 SSN submarines,s and several aircraft carriers and destroyers by 20240 plus enjoys a ‘privileged’ role in the US grand strategy as an offshore counterbalancer against China that will help it further increase these capabilities.
These implications are two critical developments. One, India continues to enjoy unhindered Eastern and Western support for developing its arsenal, and Pakistan faces isolation in its efforts to maintain strategic and deterrence stability. Second, the arms control efforts will remain highly elusive, further complicating the regional security landscape.
As China modernizes its nuclear and conventional forces to achieve greater strategic leverage over the US and its allies particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, India will be pretending to face mounting pressure to pursue modernization and power projection efforts. This dynamic risks exacerbating strategic imbalances, and miscalculations, fueling an arms race and turning elusive strategic instability in India-Pakistan relations.
In the prevailing hostile geopolitical environment, the prospects for risk reduction measures and confidence-building frameworks appear unattainable in South Asia However, arms control measures seem to be the future promising effort between the South Asian rivals to help mitigate the growing arms race undermining the broader strategic stability in South Asia.
Strategic restraint regime negotiations between India and Pakistan could help reduce tensions and promote stability in South Asia.
Establishing a bilateral negotiation for the already proposed strategic restraint regime between the South Asian nuclear rivals may foster the development of normative regulations on critical issues, thereby fostering regional stability.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
