Multiple regional bilateral conflicts including the global Great Power competition between the US and China define geopolitics in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Apart from the main protagonists, India is a key player in the maritime domain and IOR with its grand strategic ambitions of becoming a permanent part of UNSC and extending its power projection capabilities beyond IOR.

India’s maritime power projection aims to transform its navy into a blue-water force, establishing dominance in the Indian Ocean Region and beyond.

India’s maritime power projection is a critical component of its national strategy of claiming the Indian Ocean as “India’s Ocean” and emerging as a Net Security Provider in this vast area of immense geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the world. This strategy focuses on enhancing naval capabilities, maritime diplomacy, and strategic alliance building.

The Indian Navy aims to transition from a brown water navy to a blue water navy with a so-called ‘proactive stance’. Emphasis on forward deployment strategies and out-of-area operations to assert its influence and maintain stability in the region are the cornerstone of this strategy.

The Indian Navy is actively pursuing several significant procurement and development plans aimed at modernizing its capabilities and enhancing operational readiness. These procurements are a precursor of a maritime arms race in the region particularly viz-a-viz Pakistan as these acquisitions are strategically challenging the Pakistan Navy’s current strategy of maintaining minimum credible deterrence.

A cursory analysis of key components of the Indian Power projection strategy vividly depicts the direction of Indian maritime strategy that is driven by the national ambitions of establishing India as a dominant power in South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region.

Under its maritime power projection strategy, the Indian navy is undertaking a significant modernization with the upgradation of existing platforms and the acquisition of new technologies as major components. The focus is on creating a more capable and technologically advanced military that can operate beyond India’s borders.

At the heart of Indian naval expansion are new capabilities like nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs), long-range Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM), High altitude, long endurance unmanned intelligence (ISR) assets, advanced fighter jets, Unmanned Aerial Combat Vehicles (UCAVs), and boost in conventional warship building capabilities. These changes are part of a major strategic shift in Indian maritime doctrine.

In pursuance of its ambitions to become a complete blue water navy, the current trend of Indian naval modernization is focused on developing robust Aera Operations (OAO). Indian military philosophy has moved from a defensive posture focused on deterrence against China to a proactive approach termed “offensive defense” by Indian National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval.

Apart from being able to undertake OAO, this strategy is aimed at expanding the Indian Navy’s role as a swift first responder to any regional crises across a vast region spread from the Suez Canal in the West to the South China Sea in the East.

Indian maritime diplomacy defines this expansion as the Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) capabilities of the Indian Navy where commitment to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations is considered an integral element and moral duty of the Indian Navy.

The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and SLBM capabilities enhances India’s second-strike deterrence against regional rivals like Pakistan and China.

This capability not only serves the maritime interests of India but also enhances its image as a responsible regional power; a crucial component of the Indian narrative to counter the questions about the disturbing regional balance of power and possible initiation of an arms race in IOR.

Forward deployment at various seaports with significant strategic importance is critical for such a capability, India has entered maritime security agreements in pursuance of this strategy.

Indian Navy deployment in Maldives, Oman, Iran, Seychelles, Madagascar, and Mauritius, and plans to develop ports as far as Sabang Island, Indonesia is a clear manifestation of this strategy. The Indian Navy aims to be able to get rapidly deployed when demanded.

Regional partnerships and strategic multilateral agreements is another manifestation of Indian growing maritime diplomacy. India is a strategic partner with the US, Japan, and Australia along with ASEAN nations in QUAD; an alliance to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region.

Nonetheless, the biggest element of Indian maritime strategy is to establish a secured second-strike capability to challenge Pakistan’s minimum credible deterrence capability. In the absence of any deterrence against it, Pakistan’s national security interests have been challenged by this Indian capability like never before since both countries became overt nuclear states in 1998.

India is importing state-of-the-art diesel-electric conventional submarines along with the transfer of technology from France and at the same time is also pursuing Project 77 under which 6 nuclear attack submarines have been planned. 2 are already commissioned in Indian Navy with 6000 tonne INS Arighat being the latest.

Its propulsion system is powered by a pressurized water reactor, enabling it to achieve submerged speeds of up to 24 knots and surface speeds between 12-15 knots. The submarine is equipped with multiple types of conventional and nuclear weapons delivered through either 12 K-15 SLBMs (range 750 kilometers) or 4 heavier K-4 SLBMs (range 3500 kilometers).

It offers the Indian Navy similar capabilities that like Ohio-class SSBN provides to the USN or Type 094 provides to PLAN. On the diplomatic front, India has hyphenated the SSBN program with its No First Use policy rationalizing Project 77 under the pretext that India needs second strike capability in order to create deterrence against China and Pakistan; two regional rivals with long-standing territorial conflicts and a history of wars with no commitment like No-First Use.

Even the French submarine program, called Scorpion Class, carries a significant capability boost for the Indian Navy through its advanced sensor suite, sonar, Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system which is being developed locally by Indian DRDO, weapon package, and Combat management system.

French Naval Group and Mazagon Dockyard Limited of India are building these submarines under a ₹40,000 crore agreement. The design incorporates low-radiated noise technology and advanced hydrodynamic shapes, which reduce the risk of detection by enemy sensors. These submarines can stay at sea for over 78 days.

Apart from this robust submarine program, the Indian Navy has acquired MQ-9B UCAVs from the US primarily for the Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) role. A key feature of this deal is the integration of Indian weapon systems on the US platform.

Pakistan faces challenges in countering India’s naval modernization due to financial constraints and limited access to advanced maritime technologies.

Additionally, MQ-9B SeaGuardian can carry out real-time surveillance and reconnaissance operations with its sophisticated sensors. This includes the ability to deploy sonobuoys, which are crucial for detecting and tracking submarines by capturing underwater acoustic data.

Aircraft carriers are an integral part of any Blue Water navy. As the Indian Navy aspires to become one it is growing its number of aircraft carriers as well along with re-equipping them with modern advanced systems. The Indian government has approved ₹50,000 crore contract for 26 Rafale-M jets for INS Vikrant.

All these and many more acquisitions is being done under the Maritime Capability Perspective Plan which is about to be replaced by a more robust 10-year Integrated Capability Development Plan (ICDP). This new approach aims to align military capabilities with budgetary commitments and facilitate a holistic military strategy that integrates inter-service procurements.

The ICDP will focus on identifying capability gaps and ensuring that future acquisitions meet national security objectives. Under the new plan, the Indian Navy aims to expand its fleet to between 175 and 200 warships by 2035, ensuring a robust maritime presence.

This Indian drive to emerge as a net security provider in IOR has strategic implications for Pakistan’s maritime interests and national security as it has practically nuclearized IOR. The most ominous impact is the challenge it poses to Pakistan’s strategic deterrence. The risk of an arms race in the Arabian Sea between Pakistan and India is yet another threat.

Indian ambitions to control Sea Line of Communications (SLOCs) during a conflict is a permanent threat since 1947. Though Pakistan has met the maritime challenges in the conventional domain through a well-planned modernization process under which new frigates, corvettes, long-range Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPAs), and new conventional submarines are being acquired, in the strategic domain, Pakistan has limited deterrence.

Pakistan test-fired a ship-borne ballistic missile just a few weeks ago. Still, Pakistan lacks proper SLBM capability (both the launch platform and the missile system) to deter the threat posed by K-15 and K-4 type Indian Naval weapons.

Since 1971, Pakistan, already, has maintained strategic and conventional deterrence viz-a-viz India by counter-balancing all new military technologies brought into the region by India. But due to its smaller economy, the financial cost has been exuberant. India through its 2^nd strike capability has posed a serious challenge to Pakistan’s strategic deterrence and it can only be balanced by acquiring similar or better technology and platforms.

The Pakistan Maritime Science and Technology Park is a strategic initiative to foster self-reliance in maritime innovation and counterbalance regional threats.

But getting nuclear-powered submarines is not possible under the current global and regional geopolitics. Pakistan must initiate a strategic program to develop the necessary technologies to fill this gap in the shortest period of time. Collaboration with friendly nations and self-reliance are the only options.

In this backdrop, the inauguration of the Pakistan Maritime Science and Technology Park by the Pakistan Navy is a step in the right direction. It certainly going to take many years before we hit some strategic success in terms of technical innovation in the maritime domain but with perseverance and visionary leadership, nothing is impossible!

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.