Assad regime in Syria fell on 8 December 2024 and the dramatic event led to the withdrawal of Iranian Revolutionary Guards and shrinking of Russian military presence to two military bases. Israel advanced into Syrian Golan Heights and beyond and declared that the disengagement agreement was null and void. Türkiye increased its political presence in Syria through its continued engagement with various former Syrian opposition factions including HTS itself.

The fall of Assad has not unified Syria, leaving it divided among HTS, Kurdish forces, Türkiye, and Israeli-controlled regions.

Syria now faces an uncertain future with a new reality on the ground, brought by the rise of HTS and its Islamist allies into power. To better predict the future of Syria and the region full of inconvenient truths hidden under the surface, it is important to find clear answers to some critical questions both by Syrian people and the international community to overcome huge challenges that lie ahead

The fall of Asad has not led to a united Syria and it remains divided into different regions. A vast area is under HTS, the northeast under Kurdish forces the northern territories of Syria under de facto Turkish control with the support of the Syrian National Army (SNA), and the southwest of Syria including Syrian Golan Heights, Western Damascus, and a part of Daraa bordering Jordan with the presence of IDF under de facto Israeli control. With the disappearance of central power in Damascus, such regional instability seizing the moment of a power vacuum in Syria cannot be ruled out.

Whether HTS succeeds in forming an inclusive government of different Syrian political movements and civil society remains to be seen. Whether such a government would be recognized as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people by foreign governments is another major question. HTS’s record of self-rule in Idlib does not augur well for the establishment of a future national government as it never showed any inclusiveness for other political parties in its local rule. Suspension of the Syrian Constitution for three months to allow a legal and human rights committee to propose amendments does not bode well for an optimistic scenario.

It is difficult to expect various Syrian political groups to reach a quick consensus on any political steps. It is also hard to imagine that HTS and their fellow Islamists will willingly cede their power to other political parties. Moreover, a variety of social and communal rifts and divisions that exist in Syrian society have become deeper and wider over the years. It will take years for such a divided society to agree on a consolidated political system.

HTS must form an inclusive government to avoid alienation from Syria’s diverse society and foster legitimate governance.

Some countries have already contacted HTS and showed their willingness to cooperate with the HTS-led interim government. Although both Russia and Iran have contacted HTS to safeguard their interest such as the presence of Russian military bases and the sanctity of Shia shrines their future engagement with Damascus remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, the political role of Türkiye has become critical at this juncture as it has kept strong relations with various Syrian oppositions for the past years. A series of high-level visits to Damascus by Turkish dignitaries after the fall of Bashar al-Assad signifies how important the role of Türkiye is in shaping the future of a new Syria.

The fall of Asad has not unified Syria which continues to be geographically divided by different powers. The curse of the geostrategic location of Syria surrounded by stronger neighbors continuously dominates the drama that continues to unfold there.

Three major players continue to play significant roles inside Syria: namely Israel, Türkiye, and the US after the expulsion of Iranian Revolutionary Guards coupled with members of Hezbollah and Iraqi militias in addition to the retreat of Russian military personnel to only two bases. Türkiye and the US, therefore, remain critical to bringing about even temporary stability in northern Syria

How minorities of Syria may react to the rule of HTS with its Islamist ideology also remains to be seen. The vast segments of secular Syrian society in major cities that may support HTS-ruled Syria would surely assert themselves if the HTS-centered interim government carelessly introduced any policy along the lines of Islamist orientation.

Reconstruction and refugee repatriation require international collaboration and alignment with Security Council Resolution 2254.

As HTS called upon foreign governments to lift sanctions, Ambassador Pedersen, UN Special Envoy for Syria also urged the suspension of sanctions. However, it seems the US and European countries would like to wait to make it conditional on actions and deeds of HTS in its governance subject to certain international scrutiny and standards. Syria needs massive reconstruction assistance in the long run in addition to immediate humanitarian assistance needed for the majority of its population. The country’s GDP has shrunk by over 80% since 2011 while 90% of its population lives under the poverty line.

Whether the HTS rule is conducive to the rise of terrorism led by some Salafi-jihadi elements within the ranks of HTS and its allies cannot be ruled out. The record of the HTS shows that its self-rule in Idlib proved that HTS had certainly fought the most dangerous ISIS elements and had largely purged transnational Salafi-jihadi elements from its ranks during the past seven years and transformed itself into a more Syria-oriented national group.

However, they kept a certain alliance with some foreign elements such as a unit of Xhemati Alban calling themselves “Albanian Tactical”9 and Uyghur fighters of TIP (Turkistan Islamic Party). Many highly trained foreign elements who fought together with HTS have now surfaced in Damascus. They include many Europeans, Central Asians, and Uyghurs.

If the major strategic turnaround in the region can be summarized as a victory of Israel and the defeat of Iran and Russia, the question that we should ask particularly at this juncture is how long Iran could keep its strategic patience vis-à-vis Israel after having been weakened by the loss of a number of its allies and proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Assad regime this time. If Iran decides to fully develop its nuclear weapons, having sharply sensed a loss of its deterrence against Israel, it will certainly lead to determined actions of Israel against various Iranian nuclear facilities once again to destroy such capability.

Foreign elements within HTS and its allies risk Syria becoming a springboard for future terrorism without transparent governance.

Given the enormous challenge of political transitions in Syria, both Syrians and the international community should work together taking into consideration the following points:

• HTS should be acutely aware of the risk of alienation by the Syrian society that is so diverse and not so easy to accept the Islamist political agenda of HTS. HTS should navigate very carefully to include all representatives of the society and to create a more inclusive government representative of the whole society.
• The international community needs to leverage its recognition of a new Syrian government and humanitarian and reconstruction support to Syria so that HTS and its allies will opt for a transparent and accountable democratic transition process in the spirit of the principles of Security Council Resolution 2254, which leads to credible, inclusive, and non-sectarian governance.
• Foreign powers that are currently present on the soil of Syria need to agree with a new Syrian government on their modality of presence if their presence is needed by a new Syrian government and its people. If not, all these foreign powers should respect the sovereignty of Syria and withdraw from Syria without delay from the internationally recognized territory of Syria. Without due respect to the territorial integrity of Syria, the war in Syria will never end.
• The presence of particularly foreign elements amongst HTS and its allies being designated as terrorists by the international community should be a serious subject of discussion between a new Syrian government and the international community not to let Syria become another springboard for terrorism in the future.
• As soon as a legitimate Syrian government is established, the international community should participate in supporting Syrian-led reconstruction efforts, leading to the safe return of Syrian refugees and displaced people back to their homes.
• Particularly for Europe, rebuilding a stable and prosperous Syria is deeply connected to the question of the safe return of so many Syrian immigrants settled in Europe. European countries must balance their commitment to help rebuild Syria and the risk of keeping many Syrian immigrants in Europe.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.