Replicating Darwinian wisdom in strategic calculus, it goes without saying that it is neither the strongest who survive and thrive on the battlefields, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptive to change. Air forces, since their inception, have been a catalyst for change in modern warfare, and those who remained ahead of their adversaries in air power have often tasted the sweet fruit of triumph.
The PAF’s induction of J-35 Gyrfalcon in 2026 places it almost a decade ahead of the IAF in next-generation air power.
The trajectory of air power dynamics in South Asia shows that Pakistan is all set to establish its lead over India for at least a decade, jeopardizing its ambitions of regional dominance and shattering its dream of imposing and winning a two-frontal war in its West and East.
Pakistan Air Force (PAF) historically makes up for the quantitative lag against the Indian Air Force (IAF) through superior technology and training. The PAF is currently operating two 4.5 generation aircraft – JF-17 Thunder Block-III and Chengdu J-10C, complemented by F-16 Block 52. Keeping alive the tradition of staying ahead of the time, the PAF, under the leadership of the Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu, is all set to take a giant leap forward by acquiring fifth-generation stealth aircraft J-35 Gyrfalcon by 2026. This development will put the PAF almost a decade ahead of the IAF in the race for next-generation aircraft.
The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), another competitor of the IAF, possesses two fifth-generation aircraft – J-20 Mighty Dragon and recently introduced multirole J-35 Gyrfalcon alongside a formidable fleet of 4.5-generation fighters like the Shenyang J-16 Hidden Dragon and Chengdu J-10 Vigorous Dragon. Stirring the pot for its adversaries, China has successfully flight-tested an advanced tailless aircraft. Though not confirmed by the experts, this new aircraft is likely to mark China’s entry into sixth-generation air power. By the time India would operationalize its first fifth-generation aircraft, China could already be fielding next-generation platforms further widening the gorge between India’s aspirations and capability.
Alternatively, the IAF fleet is mainly centered on the Rafale and Tejas Mk1A, both of which are claimed to be 4.5-generation, and their capabilities, though potent, are often overstated in public discourse. Consequently, the aging SEPECAT Jaguar, Mikoyan MiG-29, Dassault Mirage 2000, and Sukhoi Su-30MKI carry the burden of the IAF.
India’s delays in indigenous aircraft projects, like AMCA, hinder its ability to achieve air power parity in the foreseeable future.
India’s Indigenous next-gen aircraft endeavor is marked by slow pace and delays mirroring the HAL Tejas LCA project, which took over two decades to achieve initial operational capability. For the Tejas Mk1A, the government expected initial delivery by March 2024 and full delivery by 2029. However, the first delivery has slipped to mid-2025, with full induction extending beyond 2029. Similarly, the initial flight of Tejas Mk2, anticipated in 2023 was later rescheduled to 2024 and as of January 2025, the bird is yet to fly.
According to estimates, the first flight may occur by mid-2026, with production readiness delayed around 2030. The fifth-generation variant Advance Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)’s first flight test was anticipated in 2025 but later revised to 2027 as India’s Cabinet Committee on Security approved the project only in March 2024. Delays pertaining to cost overruns, supply chain issues, technological complexities, and engine development highlight Indian predicaments.
Assuming the most optimistic scenarios that the AMCA project would sail through without obstacles, the project will take at least eight years to operationalize. An obvious outcome of this lag will be that India’s AMCA will be unable to affect the regional balance before 2034-5.
An alternative path for India to remain in the race for 5th-generation aircraft is the procurement of either F-35 Lightening-II or Su-57 Felon. This path is equally fraught with challenges as such endeavors prerequisite extensive negotiations and approvals, production timelines, and training for pilot and ground crew. By the time the first procured aircraft passes the assembly line, IAF’s operational readiness will be lagging behind PAF by 7 to 8 years. Acquiring off-the-shelf aircraft might reduce the operationalization time by a year or two but at the cost of limited customization to IAF’s specific operational needs. Above all, India’s emphasis on technology transfer ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ program will continue to serve as an impediment on this path.
China’s rapid advancements in air power, including potential sixth-generation aircraft, further widen the gap in South Asia’s strategic balance.
The tactical and strategic implications of this technological gap are stark. Having the dream of 50 fighter squadrons for a two-frontal ambition, the IAF may not be able to complete a mere 42 squadrons by 2038. The introduction of the fifth-generation aircraft into the South Asian equation in 2026 would render India’s air defense systems increasingly vulnerable and strained. India’s desire to wage and triumphing a two-front scenario will also be outclassed on both qualitative and quantitative scales on both prongs be it PAF or the PLAAF in all domains.
While India dreams of emerging as a regional hegemon, its competitors have already outdone its ambitions with their revolutionary air power capabilities. This dynamic would mark the beginning of a protracted period of vulnerability for the Indian elements, where its ambitions of regional supremacy are getting a reality check by the technological and operational prowess of its competitors.
Disclaimer:Â The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
