The Pahlagam attack sets an ideal stage for the Indian jingoistic political elite in which it can don the Great Gatsby mask to create a world of illusions and summon chaos in South Asia’s security architecture. From Pulwama to Pahlagam, the scenery shifts, but India’s blueprint of manipulation remains the same. Like Bollywood movies with no creativity, India’s blame game pattern is in a loop; it rhymes and is always on the same beat. India manufactures chaos, then cries foul and blames Pakistan for the disorder it engineered.

India’s intelligence agencies appear to be blind in foresight, but hawk-eyed in hindsight

Like a recurring cinematic narrative, four elements always appear in India’s storyline. Firstly, it’s the impulse to externalise the fault mainly towards Pakistan. This is so ingrained among its media, intelligentsia, policymakers and security managers that blame becomes their shield before reason can speak. Secondly, the post-event outcry comes with a paradox of certainty and impotence. After every event, India’s competent intelligence agency finds the culprits in a few days, if not in hours. However, the same intelligence agencies seem impotent to gather data before such attacks occur. India’s intelligence agencies appear to be blind in foresight, but hawk-eyed in hindsight. The latter quality offers a lesson for the world to learn.

Thirdly, Indian policy makers show a blind eye towards magma bubbling beneath the floorboard in the shape of insurgency in Indian Punjab and the seven sister states in the northeast region. India’s political elite deliberately isolates the separatist problem to one community, as it is convenient and serves the purpose of cultural violence against Kashmiris. Lastly, with 500,000 Indian troops, the valley is like a fortress, yet it was breached in broad daylight. If it is not a false flag operation, which is it then that raises a question about how India’s every response appears to be on point, except for containing the terrorists?

Bhagat Singh would have been declared a terrorist if he had lived in today’s India

However, India’s policymakers know one thing: the truth is just an inventory. They never stop producing a web of lies and keep spinning it with the surety that their lie will speak louder than the truth. This modus operandi of India is no different from colonial powers, who branded freedom fighters as rebels or terrorists. Bhagat Singh would have been declared a terrorist if he had lived in today’s India. Even the tactics hold similar familiarity as fear and control are perceived cure for Kashmiris’ rightful struggle. For the world, India might be the mother of democracy, but for Kashmiris, India is an oppressor state that subjugated millions of people by denying access to the right of self-determination. Moreover, in a calculated move, the rights given to Kashmiri people were revoked through the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, to consolidate its illegal occupation, further deteriorating Kashmiris’ condition.

This ecological terrorism was always an instrument of choice for India in its Grey Zone tactics against Pakistan

However, the recent developments have added a dangerous dimension to India’s usual story, where India’s mask slipped and “I am not what I am’ became visible. The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty exposes India’s international diplomacy as they backpedal from their international commitments like a conman waiting for an alibi, which in this case is the bogey of cross-border terrorism. Analysis in Pakistan saw it coming, as in a recently held seminar at CASS, Lahore, it was highlighted that India will utilise such unscrupulous steps vis-à-vis the Indus Water Treaty as a coercive measure against Pakistan. This ecological terrorism was always an instrument of choice for India in its Grey Zone tactics against Pakistan. Indian policymakers were just waiting for a flimsy pretext to retreat from an international commitment as scripted. Nonetheless, this step from India has pushed Pakistan to the edge.

What options does Pakistan have to navigate this complex situation? Calculated manoeuvre and the courage to keep swimming in a storm. The global order is in chaos, and if Pakistan plays its cards strategically, the chaos can be used as a ladder.  Therefore, there is a need to develop diplomatic channels, engagement with multilateral institutions and international organisations to claw back what is being denied. The second option is lawfare, even though international laws and rules are fluid – they can be bent and broken – but in the case of the Indus Water Treaty, the guarantors would like it to be observed as it’s only one of the few success stories of international law in the past seven decades. The third option is promoting the Pakistan narrative in international media; this might not be in producing desired outcomes, but would help in conquering the international information space by neutralising India’s propaganda on the international stage.

As a last step, if every other option is exhausted, Pakistan might resort to extreme measures commensurate with the design India has chosen

Such steps will provide Pakistan with new levers of soft power to pressure India to uphold international commitments. As a last step, if every other option is exhausted, Pakistan might resort to extreme measures commensurate with the design India has chosen. Such a situation would not be an option but a necessity for a country like Pakistan, whose economy depends on the flow of water, which India intends to block or disrupt. India’s unlawful acts for long have burdened Pakistan with a dilemma that if it does not act, everything will be consumed. In conclusion, to deal with India, now Pakistan has to step into the arena with a brave heart, like we have always done in the past.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.