The phenomenon known as the “Indian Chronicle” represents a recent chapter in India’s utilization of hybrid warfare tactics against Pakistan. Over a span of 15 years, Indian state intelligence agencies orchestrated a sophisticated disinformation campaign targeting Pakistan across multiple continents[1]. There was fake news development against Pakistan in more than 116 countries and 9 regions of the world.

Through the proliferation of fake news in numerous countries and regions, including leveraging international organizations such as the UN and EU parliament, India aimed to tarnish Pakistan’s reputation on the global stage. This extensive operation involved the establishment of hundreds of fake news outlets and domain names, which propagated anti-Pakistan narratives, often with the aid of entities like the Asian News International (ANI)[2].

Hybrid warfare, a strategy increasingly adopted by nations, blends traditional military approaches with unconventional methods such as cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, and support for proxy groups.

In the context of India-Pakistan relations, characterized by historical conflicts and nuclear capabilities, the implications of Indian hybrid warfare on Pakistan’s human security are profound. Human security extends beyond military concerns to encompass economic stability, social cohesion, political stability, and the protection of human rights. The tactics employed in hybrid warfare, often targeting civilian populations and non-military institutions, render these dimensions of human security particularly vulnerable[3].

Asymmetric tactics feature prominently in India’s hybrid warfare strategy against Pakistan, including support for proxy groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Tehrik-I-Taliban, and others[4]. India’s objectives through these groups include undermining Pakistan’s internal security, disrupting economic endeavours, targeting security forces, and obstructing projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The revelation of India’s clandestine support for such groups, as evidenced by cases like Kulbhushan Yadav, underscores the gravity of the situation[5].

Additionally, India’s actions in Indian-Occupied Kashmir, particularly the revocation of Article 370 and subsequent lockdown, further exacerbate tensions and human rights concerns. The psychological impact of hybrid warfare, marked by disinformation and manipulation, compounds the challenges faced by individuals and communities, potentially leading to social disintegration and regional instability. Furthermore, India has pursued its agenda through platforms like the FATF[6]. Nonetheless, vigilance and concerted efforts remain imperative to address the multifaceted threats posed by hybrid warfare in the region.

Economic Implications

Pakistan’s economic challenges have far-reaching implications for the nation’s resilience and security. Economic warfare can be waged through legislation such as Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), controlling or diverting river waters, disrupting energy supplies, arm-twisting through international financial institutions, international monitoring bodies such as FATF, containment, and blockade, etc. All these are aimed at slowing down economic activity, weakening defence capability, and causing unrest in the target country’s population.

Moreover, as economic conditions worsen, there is an increased risk of social unrest, internal displacement, and heightened poverty levels, directly impacting the well-being of Pakistani citizens. Adversaries, particularly India, exploit these economic vulnerabilities as strategic targets within the realm of hybrid warfare. Tactics such as cyber-attacks, economic espionage, and propaganda aim to disrupt Pakistan’s economic stability and, consequently, undermine its human security[7].

The weaponization of economic tools can result in job losses, inflation, and limited access to necessities, fostering discontent among the population and hindering government investment in crucial social services like healthcare and education.

Economic vulnerabilities exacerbate Pakistan’s susceptibility to hybrid warfare, which combines traditional military tactics with non-military methods like cyber-attacks, information warfare, and economic coercion. India’s alleged support for insurgent groups, cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure, and dissemination of disinformation further complicate security dynamics, exacerbating internal vulnerabilities and affecting human security[8].

Social and Political Instability

Under the broadest definition, political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation’s command, short of war, to achieve its strategic objectives. It forms yet another important element of the hybrid warfare strategy, which employs a mix of legal warfare (Lawfare), diplomatic warfare, lobbying, and other political instruments to weaken the target country[9]. The method of warfare has changed, and cyber security breaches pose big challenges and have an effect on the foreign policy of states and bilateral ties. Here, the element of deniability provides an edge to the officials because it is easy to blame breaching the cyber security on the private citizens of which the state may not accept the responsibility[10].

Apart from these domains, terrorism breeding in Pakistan is also a critical vulnerability. Indian-sponsored terrorism in Afghanistan and operating in Pakistan is also a serious threat to the state’s security and stability. Narcoterrorism in this category cannot be ignored. The battle in the cognitive and moral domains is also intense and the public will of the society of a state, if exploitable, presents a serious threat. A recent report says that millions of illegal Indian DTHs are operating in Pakistan, which means that this threat is already on its way[11].

India has even been using sports for political gains and maligning/pressurizing Pakistan. Its decision not to play cricket with Pakistan was aimed at weakening a strong rival team. Similarly, the terrorist attack on Sri Lanka’s cricket team was used as an excuse to prevent international cricket events in Pakistan. However, 49 noninsurance visas to Pakistani players in events such as Kabbadi tournaments also show India’s mindset[12].

Environmental degradation

India has been diverting river waters and constructing dams in violation of the Indus Waters Treaty signed in 1960. This will not only allow India to control water flowing into Pakistan and affect its agriculture sector but can also be used as a weapon during military conflict. While India already uses a larger percentage of these waters, it is gradually moving ahead with projects to utilize what remains rather than let those waters flow into Pakistan. Reduction of water supply is a grave matter for any country, but especially for one like Pakistan.

Experts warn that Pakistan is on the brink of an era of water scarcity caused by a combination of factors such as population growth, climate change, and poor water management. India’s efforts to cut off water flow into Pakistan would be devastating, to say the least. Drying of rivers flowing into Pakistan will have devastating economic effects and can be termed as “water terrorism[13].”

Moreover, environmental degradation can have a detrimental impact on the economy. The loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems can disrupt ecosystem services, such as water purification, pollination, and climate regulation, which are essential for human well-being and economic activities[14]. This can result in increased costs for water treatment, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased vulnerability to natural disasters. Additionally, industries that rely on natural resources, such as fishing and forestry, can suffer from declining stocks and reduced profitability.

When these resources become scarce or inaccessible due to degradation, industries may face higher production costs, reduced competitiveness, and potential job losses. Sustainable development practices are essential for ensuring the environment’s and human society’s long-term well-being. The degradation of natural resources, pollution, and climate change significantly negatively impact human health, economic growth, and social stability[15].

Air pollution is responsible for millions of premature deaths each year, while deforestation and soil erosion can lead to food insecurity and water scarcity.  

Conclusion

India’s utilization of hybrid warfare tactics has had far-reaching consequences on Pakistan’s human security in various aspects, such as the economy, society, politics, and the environment. The destabilization of the economy, discord within society, volatility in politics, and degradation of the environment highlight the complex challenges faced by Pakistan. To tackle these diverse threats effectively, a holistic approach is required, encompassing economic reforms, initiatives to promote social cohesion, measures to ensure political stability, and efforts towards environmental conservation. By prioritizing the development of resilience and fostering international cooperation, Pakistan can effectively counteract the harmful impacts of India’s hybrid warfare, thereby safeguarding the security and well-being of its people.

End Notes:

[1] Nadeem, M. A., Mustafa, G., & Kakar, A. (2021). Fifth Generation Warfare and its Challenges to Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of International Affairs, 4(1).

[2] Murtaza, Z., Shah, A. S., Arshid, H., Aziz, T., & Serwar, B. (2023). Political Impacts of Indian Propaganda on Pakistan. Journal of Positive School Psychology, 7(6), 699-707.

[3] Mubarik, N., Jhandad, J., & Khawja, A. S. (2021). Indian Hybrid Warfare in Pakistan: Spin-off Ramifications for Pakistan’s National Security. Journal of Indian Studies, 7(1), 107-122.

[4] Iqbal, S. (2018). Hybrid Warfare and its Impact on Pakistan’s Security: Hybrid Warfare and its Impact on Pakistan’s Security. Saghir Iqbal.

[5] Mirza, M. N., & Babar, S. I. (2020). The Indian Hybrid Warfare Strategy: Implications for Pakistan. Progressive Research Journal of Arts and Humanities (PRJAH), 2(1), 39-52.

[6] Ahmad, W., Razzaq, F., & Akram, M. (2023). HYBRID WARFARE AND PAKISTAN: IMPLICATIONS AND RESPONSE STRATEGY. PalArch’s Journal of Archaeology of Egypt/Egyptology, 20(2), 2348-2368.

[7] Tahir, I. A., & Afridi, M. K. (2019). Fifth Generations Warfare (5GW)-The New Dimensions of Enemies Launched Warfare and Security Concern of Pakistan. Global Regional Review, 4(1), 250-259.

[8] Ahmad, A., & Hussain, S. (2023). PAKISTAN’S SECURITY CHALLENGES: BALANCING BETWEEN INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL IMPERATIVES. International Journal of Contemporary Issues in Social Sciences…………………………………………………………………. ISSN (E) 2959-2461 (P) 2959-3808, 2(3), 236-250.

[9] Akhtar, N., Jan, I., & Akram, S. (2021). Hybrid Warfare Strategy of India: Impacts on Pakistan. Global Regional Review, 6(2), 64-72.

[10] Al-Saba, M. K., Fatima, N., & Khattak, M. U. R. (2023). India’s Hybrid Warfare Strategy: Implications. Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University, Natural Science Edition, 19(07).

[11] Mirza, M. N., & Babar, S. I. (2020). The Indian Hybrid Warfare Strategy: Implications for Pakistan. Progressive Research Journal of Arts and Humanities (PRJAH), 2(1), 39-52.

[12] Gul, S., & Shakir, H. (2023). India’s Hybrid Warfare Against Pakistan: PPP and PMLN Governments Response (2008-2018). Journal of Professional Research in Social Sciences, 10(2), 24-36.

[13] Sarah Siddiq Aneel (2021). “INDIA’S HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST PAKISTAN: CHALLENGES & RESPONSE OPTIONS.” CASS 20, NO.2.

[14] Alfonso, A., Zorondo-Rodríguez, F., & Simonetti, J. A. (2017). Perceived changes in environmental degradation and loss of ecosystem services, and their implications in human well-being. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 24(6), 561-574.

[15] Dietz, T., Rosa, E. A., & York, R. (2009). Environmentally efficient well-being: Rethinking sustainability as the relationship between human well-being and environmental impacts. Human Ecology Review, 114-123.