Cranes at the port of Gwadar swing unceasingly towards the horizon of the Arabian Sea, a sign of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) ushering in change in the Pakistani economic frontier. This infrastructure, with more than 60 billion Chinese dollars in investment, epitomizes a paradigm shift in the geopolitical equation of the South Asian region; the causality of which was the Indian fiasco called Operation Sindoor in May 2025.
“Gwadar Port epitomizes a paradigm shift in South Asia’s geopolitical equation.”
The fabricated Pahalgam false flag triggered the Indian invasion of Pakistan, which was concluded with the decisive defeat of Pakistan, cultivating Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos. This cross-functional master move not only revealed the military vulnerability and isolation of New Delhi but also clarified its breakthrough in international affairs. To make matters worse, U.S.-imposed 50 percent tariffs on its exports will become effective August 27, 2025, and this will strangle a key source of revenue via re-exporting refined Russian oil, and will further degrade its economic leverage.
Far beyond a regional minion, Pakistan, with the strategic positioning of China, has taken the status of a central pillar of a progress-and-stability doctrine, harnessing the economic heartbeat and diplomatic clout of CPEC to realign South Asian stability with its policy of integration through economic progress. As the hegemonic aspirations of India dissolve, efforts by Islamabad and Beijing are afoot to ensure the creation of a regional order that is built on connectivity rather than conflict, and maneuvering realities that remain very brutal requires rigorous precision. The Pakistani economy has survived these hitches, which is a testament to the resilience of the country and its people.
The false flag of April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam was the characteristic Indian operation that was meant to harm Pakistan and then use it as an excuse to attack. India blamed Pakistan-based militant groups, such as The Resistance Front, for the killing of 26 civilians in a Kashmiri meadow. However, there were discrepancies with the Pakistani-made chocolates as evidence reflecting the discredited Pulwama playbook.
This was subsequently found out to be a fake incident that prompted the Operation Sindoor of India and the Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos of Pakistan. The declarations of former Jammu and Kashmir governor Satya Pal Malik on Indian manipulations in the past all added to a growing amount of doubt, along with the reluctance of the UN to buy into Indian assertions without evidence. Pakistan denied any form of collusion, factoring the occurrence as a ploy by Modi to cause a nationalist fever as an electoral tactic.
“Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos exposed India’s military vulnerabilities and diplomatic isolation.”
The Indian retaliation, Operation Sindoor, commenced on May 7 and was directed at suspected militant camps in Azad Kashmir and Pakistan, destroying terrorist infrastructure, according to the Indian calculations. This hubris of the operation was matched by Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos, launched by Pakistan on 10th May and named after Quranic resilience. The Indian military facilities in Gujarat, Adampur, Ambala, Udhampur, Pathankot, and Jalandhar were hit as part of a multi-domain Pakistan offensive with Fatah-1 missiles, drones, and hacking into Indian command centers, which paralyzed them.
The credibility of Indian claims of killing nine Pakistan Air Force planes vanished without any visuals or even debris. In contrast, Pakistan used full disclosure on its battlefield to demonstrate its superiority. The May 10 ceasefire, notwithstanding Trump’s pretensions to mediation prowess, had the imprint of strategic independence on the part of Pakistan, rather than intervention. The involvement of China in this conflict cannot be underestimated, as it has given intrinsic assistance to Pakistan by providing intelligence, J-10 fighter jets, and a UN veto that saved Pakistan from penalty resolutions.
India suffered an abject failure of diplomacy. Allies such as the U.S., Japan, and Australia did not want to disrupt the stability in the Indo-Pacific and therefore gave New Delhi watered-down support, leaving it vulnerable. Former ambassador Venu Rajamony, in his criticism, said it all: ‘India lost international support. Instead, Pakistan managed to gain positions in UN counter-terrorism committees, received $1 billion from the IMF, $40 billion from the World Bank, and $800 million from the ADB, and strengthened its economy.
India was overreaching in suspending the Indus Waters Treaty on April 23 on security grounds, internationalising the Kashmir issue, with Pakistan threatening to withdraw its Simla Agreement. This action, which was supposed to dry up water in Pakistan, backfired by bringing into the spotlight the coercive behaviors of India, thereby provoking neutral parties. The 50 percent tariff imposed on Indian exports by the U.S., involving 25 percent as the trade imbalances and 25 percent on re-exporting of Russian refined oil, will take a toll on the economic status of India, taking into focus the $52.7 billion oil trade that fed the war machine and that was producing a lot of profit in this case out of India.
As these tariffs are aimed at destabilizing 55 percent of India’s exports, amounting to $87 billion, to the US, the largest trade destination, analysts estimate the GDP can be reduced by up to 1 percent, damaging the labour-intensive industries such as textiles and auto components. Such economic strain, coupled with military control of Pakistan in the region, shut India out even more strategically and economically.
The Pakistan-China nexus, created out of this, is the new pivot of South Asia. Whether it is Gwadar Port with transshipment power that rivals that of other regional hubs, 5,000 megawatts of additional energy that has eliminated power shortages, or Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Rashakai and Faisalabad that have sent industry soaring, CPEC investments have been delivering game-changing infrastructure. In Sindoor, China played a non-operational role in providing information, J-10 combat aircraft, and veto power in the UN to prevent verdicts that would condemn and penalize Pakistan.
“U.S. tariffs on Indian exports created an economic squeeze, amplifying Pakistan-China leverage.”
Such an alliance is greening the Belt and Road Initiative across Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, partnering the East Coast dock networks with Chinese BRI competitors, recapturing Indian leverage in the region by refinancing Sri Lanka, and also tapping Chinese investment in Nepal, squandering Indian influence. Pakistan’s doctrine advances through economic recycling and underpinning, leveraging the nexus of interdependence to enable Islamabad to become a regional pivot.
Such is the imperative of collective security, to the exclusion of hegemony, seen in the role played by China in mediating Afghan negotiations, which ultimately ensured that there is no free zone of Indian influence. The pressure on the Indian economy, caused by its tariffs and, more specifically, the loss of profit for oil refineries, also tips the scales, with Indian isolationism standing against the unified alliances enjoyed by Pakistan. This combination is a strong one, and the strategic foresight of Pakistan and China is very encouraging.
This paradigm completely redraws the economic and geopolitical landscape in South Asia with iron absolutism. The CPEC corridors connecting Xinjiang resources to the Indian Ocean trade have the potential to bridge the regional gap, and it is likely to integrate Bangladesh and Sri Lanka into a continuous route. The low rates of intra-regional trade within South Asia (5 percent compared to 25 percent in ASEAN) indicate a vast potential.
Pakistan and China have suggested reviving the SAARC or forming a South Asian Water Council to replace the fractious system of the IWT. With diversion of supply chains due to U.S.-China trade tensions, SEZs in Pakistan are appealing to FDI in textiles, electronics, and renewables, with IMF forecasts projecting growth of annual exports by as much as 10 billion dollars. Directional changes, such as Pakistan’s export diversification with a greater focus on numerical components of technology, significantly reduce reliance on value-added sectors and unmanageable sectors.
At the same time, energy independence shifts the economic protection burden to endless discoveries. The U.S. tariffs on India, which exempt Pakistan, leave New Delhi at an even greater financial disadvantage as exporters face a 30-35 percent cost penalty compared with nations such as Vietnam.
Geopolitically, the axis creates a specific stability through the political method. The intermediating role of China and its Pakistani intelligence removes India and its destabilizing influence as the regime in Kabul is integrated into the regional formation. Pakistan’s increased diplomatic activity and its representation at the UN have created a situation in which Pakistan is growing as a stabilizing element. With a promise of debt relief and infrastructure development, the Pakistan-China duo mitigates the coercive economic and diplomatic impact in the region, prompting minor states to reconsider their alliances.
The port expansion in Bangladesh and leasing changes of Hambantota in Sri Lanka can be used to describe this trend, where there is no longer any no-win compromise between winner and loser, but a win-win scenario where both can benefit. The tariff-affected economy of India, which is set to lose 8 billion dollars in initial exports, is experiencing supply chain problems and job losses, which reduce its economic power in the region. Crushingly, India and Sindoor, with an economy of $600 billion, are insignificant specks in the shadow of failures. Calculated strategies of avoidance and punitive tariffs are in place, leaving the Islamabad-Beijing combination with economic capabilities and defensive capacities to manage.
But the journey is full of violent realism. The debt of the CPEC to the tune of 30 billion, risking fiscal strangulation in case things go wrong; there is an added element of the TTP and Baloch militants attacking supply lines. India, with the plausibility of proxy war or economic sabotage, its residual military strength and nuclear capabilities, and an air force that is bigger than that of Pakistan, keeps clinging to the possibility. Smaller states such as Bhutan, which are dependent on Indian markets, are not readily conforming, a test of skillful diplomacy that will not offend. Indeed, external powers add complications: U.S. sanctions on Russia complicate India’s oil imports, whereas Russian arms sales to the two countries make it harder to guess at allegiances.
“CPEC’s infrastructure and diplomacy position Pakistan as a stabilizing regional pivot.”
The Pakistan-China doctrine of progress and stability is a planned answer to the broken nature of the status quo in South Asia. The infrastructure and diplomatic power of CPEC, coupled with the economic inconsistencies caused by Indian tariffs on Pakistan, have put Islamabad-Beijing in the position of creators of a networked, robust region. With its leadership on trade corridors, water councils, and Afghan stability, this axis can make South Asia into a cooperative powerhouse.
But to do this will require callous management: neutralization of militancy, a well-judged balance of debt, and the co-opting of wary neighbors, even India, whose economic power is weakened by a tariff regime, into practical agreements. Bunyan Ul Marsoos tested the endurance of the Pakistanis; now, its strategic thinking with the support of Chinese power should create a new order in the region where economic domination is more important than military presence.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
