The suspension of Indus water treaty by India was bound to happen sometimes in the future. India has reached out to Pakistan twice to open the deal and negotiate on current needs but got no response. Under these circumstances with tensions rising, a misfiring incident by anyone on any side was to be fatal for the treaty.

The Pahalgam attack on tourists either was a false flag operation or a planned terrorist  attack, or suspension of treaty was done on some agenda or not but remember treaty signed in 1960 under the auspices of World Bank was bound to be suspended somehow as it is outdated and this incident just proved to be the spark.

New technologies like hydropower are not addressed anywhere which is a concern of India as it wants to heavily invest in such technologies

The demands of the modern era are not addressed in the treaty. Climate change and water shortage crisis are at the top of the list. It deals with old technologies only. New technologies like hydropower are not addressed anywhere which is a concern of India as it wants to heavily invest in such technologies. The region is heavily affected by climate change effects which is escalating water crisis. From droughts to heatwaves to floods, these events have become more frequent in recent years causing economic losses to all. No matter what happens in the region the treaty remained in place. Through out history, no matter what happened, be it war, civil unrest, or terrorism.

Since Narendra Modi came to power, India is trying to amend existing norms and laws to give them modern outlook of populism and nationalism that is on the rise. Following the same pattern, India reached out to Pakistan twice in 2023 and 2024 respectively, but Pakistan only responded once in 2024 that it is ready to talk. Since the World Bank is also a party unilateral cancelling of treaty cannot take place. So, India decided to go for suspension.

India wanted to build advance infrastructure for utilizing water resources to its full potential, but Pakistan objected to it under the treaty and then the case was sent for arbitration

Why was the need to reopen and to overhaul such an impressive and widely recognized treaty felt? Who was at fault? India wanted to build advance infrastructure for utilizing water resources to its full potential, but Pakistan objected to it under the treaty and then the case was sent for arbitration. Since, the increasing demand for water is impacting  the region due to climate change.

The treaty does not address modern technologies and under the treaty, India can only utilize old technologies which deprives it of using modern infrastructure.  Since the incidents of terrorism increased in India, India had one clear stance repeatedly that blood and water can’t flow together while accusing Pakistan of supporting terrorism.

In 2019, India had indicated that the process of blocking water, without violating the treaty, had started but stated that scrapping the treaty will bring no significant gains to Delhi

In 2019, India had indicated that the process of blocking water, without violating the treaty, had started but stated that scrapping the treaty will bring no significant gains to Delhi. The use of water as an instrument of coercion by India is an overblown option as the treaty can be rescinded only through mutual consent.

What can India do now? Due to suspension, it can halt sharing of river-flow data, starting new advanced projects banned under treaty on western rivers, flood warnings, upgrading existing dams as required under the treaty framework to escalate diplomatic pressure, store huge amount of water, thereby causing public anxiety in the already water-stressed country. By doing this India can solve its water shortages and exacerbates crisis for Pakistan. India can refuse to hold technical meetings or responding to Pakistani queries. Agricultural disruptions are likely if India simply does not provide flood warnings this year or chooses to open the sluice gates of the dams located on her side in the high monsoon season causing floods.

In Pakistan, water from the tributaries is used for irrigation, and is necessary for food security, and the country’s economic and social stability

As time passes without any solution, the situation may become more dire for Pakistan if India accelerates advanced technology dam construction, maximizes its eastern river use, and develops diversions on all rivers which could affect the flow of the western rivers. It could significantly impact Pakistan’s water-dependent agriculture, hydropower, and economy. In Pakistan, water from the tributaries is used for irrigation, and is necessary for food security, and the country’s economic and social stability. In the days leading to suspension there were protests going on in Pakistan against Cholistan canal project which were supposed to diversify water to irrigate barren land.

Pakistan and India should sit on a table  to address short comings of Indus water treaty and come up with solutions

Pakistan and India should sit on a table  to address short comings of Indus water treaty and come up with solutions. An outdated treaty needs updates to address modern problems like climate change and water crisis. An impressive treaty needs revival because scrapping along with rain short fall will escalate drought conditions. The treaty that survived wars and other conflicts does not need to be struck off due to terrorism attacks. Also, Pakistan should adopt a policy to diversify its water resources. It should invest in underground water resources and water storage capacity in forms other than dams. Federal government and provincial governments should sit together to come up with mechanisms to address such problems.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.