February 27, 2019 will go down in the epoch of Pakistan and its Air Force (PAF) as a Red-Letter Day. On this auspicious day, Pakistan retorted swiftly to a failed Indian Air Force (IAF) surgical strike at Balakot and badly bruised Indian ego showing the world what damage a smaller but hard-hitting and determined air force can incur against a numerically and technically superior air power.

Six years have passed and much has been said and written on this stellar performance by PAF but it is time that we briefly review the gains and losses of both protagonists—Pakistan and India.

PAF unleashed Operation Swift Retort to send a clear message to India, targeting multiple locations but avoiding civilian casualties.

It is to PAF’s credit that in February 2019, only a few days after the February 26 Indian Air Force Operation Bandar (codename for the attack on Balakot) and PAF’s riposte the next morning, a number of former Air Chiefs, veterans and Defence Analysts including this scribe were invited to the Air Headquarters and briefed by the Air Chief on Operation Swift Retort. It was heartening to note that he attributed the victory to the will of Allah, rigorous training and teamwork of all those who participated.

PAF unleashed Operation Swift Retort to send a clear message to India, targeting multiple locations in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) but deliberately dropped their payload off the target sites to avoid any human casualty. When IAF interceptors tried to retaliate, they were trapped and, in the melee, two IAF fighter aircraft were shot down by PAF. A MiG-21 and SU-30 (Sukhói-30MKI). The debris of the SU-30 fell in IOK and its pilot was killed. The MiG-21 pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman was captured alive but later returned as a gesture of goodwill.

On the same day, IAF shot down its own Mi-17 helicopter with SPYDER air defense system killing six Air Force personnel and 1 civilian in a frenzy of confusion. Later, two Indian officers were court-martialed for their faux pas. India claimed that Wing Commander Abhinandan shot down a Pakistani F-16 Fighting Falcon before he was downed and awarded him a gallantry award Vir Chakra for his imaginary kill.

Despite insistence, India failed to provide any proof of shooting down an F-16 but US specialists visited Pakistan, and carried out an inventory check, finding all PAF F-16s intact while the media was shown the missile pods of Abhinandan’s MiG-21 with not a single missile having been fired.

For a brief period, Wing Commander Abhinandan was a PoW, in his interview with Pakistani media, he was shown sipping tea from a mug when asked how was the tea, his response was: “The Tea is Fantastic!” this became a meme on the social media. Abhinandan and the Indian Air Force paid a heavy price for the “Fantastic Cup of Tea” a multi-million dollars worth MiG-21 Bison.

India’s claim of shooting down a Pakistani F-16 was debunked, as a US inventory check found all PAF F-16s intact.

Abhinandan’s self-image must have taken a hit because in his heart of hearts, he knows that the gallantry award for shooting down a PAF F-16 is based on a blatant lie.

The person who gained the most from the episode is Narendra Modi, who built on his plethora of lies: killing 350 jihadists in Balakot, destroying a state-of-the-art F-16 and duped a gullible majority of Indian voters in the May 2019 elections and won a coveted second term as Prime Minister. Building on his hate-mongering against Pakistan and Indian Muslims, Modi won a record third term as Prime Minister in 2024.

Modi had been lamenting that if India had acquired the Rafale before Operation Bandar, the result would have been different. Indian defense experts should have questioned that with 272 Sukhoi SU-30MKI, a very potent multirole fighter, in its inventory, India had no excuse to show the disarray and lack of qualitative application of airpower which it did.

Meanwhile, the Indian acquisition of Rafale aircraft has been offset by Pakistan adding the Chinese J-10C fighter aircraft to its fleet.

A year after Operation Swift Retort, in October 2020, India signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) pact with the United States and Washington DC’s selective use of CAATSA sanctions, exempting India from it have changed the conventional balance by acquiring the S-400 Triumf, a mobile surface-to-air missile system. The international community needs to be cognizant of the tilting imbalance of conventionality in the region, which coupled with irrational political behavior of our eastern neighbor, could lead to further conflicts.

Wing Commander Abhinandan’s capture turned into a meme with his famous remark, ‘The tea is fantastic!’

However, judging from the complete lack of coordination and confusion displayed by IAF on February 27, the integration of Rafale and India’s diverse aggressive platforms with its air defense system comprising AWACs, a wide array of ground radars, and Electronic Warfare podia will take some time.

It is commendable that the Pakistan Air Force has always compensated for the technical and numerical superiority of the adversary through faith in Allah, hard training, adoption of sound strategy, and optimum utilization of scarce resources. The nation may sleep tight because PAF is awake!

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.