The Holtec nuclear deal was made legal by the U.S. on March 26, 2025, a big and controversial nuclear deal allowing Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology to be transferred to India. Besides being a commercial transaction, it is a geostrategic move on the South Asian chessboard, aimed at destabilizing the region and putting Pakistan’s security at risk. The technology transfer is nominally bound to peaceful use, and is subject to safeguards and reporting mechanisms, and the entire picture illustrates yet another manifestation of Washington’s permanent game plan of balancing between India and China through the territory of neighbouring countries.

It gives India, advanced nuclear capabilities, and overlooks the nation’s chronic history of radioactive incidents

But this partnership isn’t only what should be at the core of clean energy or nuclear innovation. This is a techno collaboration deliberately played into a political endorsement. In the long running U.S. attempt to balance Beijing’s growing regional clout, India has become a favoured ally. However, at such a heavy price. It is a far more complicated deal than the Holtec one and renewed escalation of already fraught tensions in an already fragile spot. In many ways, it gives India, advanced nuclear capabilities, and overlooks the nation’s chronic history of radioactive incidents.

The Holtec deal is not just another violation of the non-proliferation regime but also reinforces a very dangerous precedent of giving a green muffle to India’s mainstream violations, if they serve US’s geopolitical aspirations

Multiple incidents that dubbed India’s nuclear credibility rocked in 2024: leaks, thefts, and smuggling incidents that exposed serious lapses in control and accountability. Still, New Delhi and the U.S. have decided to strengthen their nuclear ties. A neighbouring state with a stake in regional stability — yet one it did not seek — Pakistan is now becoming more vulnerable to the crossfire of a strategic rivalry it has nothing to do with. The Holtec deal is not just another violation of the non-proliferation regime but also reinforces a very dangerous precedent of giving a green muffle to India’s mainstream violations, if they serve US’s geopolitical aspirations.

While it may sound peaceful intent, talking of technology once transferred, it is never certain that it could be controlled with absolute certainty. It is irresponsible to hand over the SMR capabilities to a now historically negligent regime given India’s past nuclear mismanagement. It allows a state that has failed repeatedly—and repeatedly willingly—to keep a tight grip on nuclear discipline. India’s nuclear story reads more like a warning label than a success story.

These policy decisions leave Pakistan to bear the brunt of it. Now it must deal with a neighbour who’s nuclear and military might be being bolstered not through merit and trust, but according to a blueprint of solidarity against China 

Through Washington’s selective enforcement of nuclear norms, India’s dual faced nuclear posture — projecting outward as a potential threat in the language of deterrence — is effectively made to seem like traditional nuclear deterrence. The latter is worse because these double standards embolden New Delhi, alienate other regional actors, and destabilize what has been an already delicate balance of power in the LMV region. These policy decisions leave Pakistan to bear the brunt of it. Now it must deal with a neighbour who’s nuclear and military might be being bolstered not through merit and trust, but according to a blueprint of solidarity against China to serve U.S. interests.

It is deeply troubling that this is a dynamic of Cold War 2.0. But the ground reality on the nuclear front shows that India is anything but a responsible nuclear actor that the West has always portrayed India to be. All legitimate Pakistan’s concerns get washed away in the name of strategic containment. And the SMR deal is not merely about energy or technology; it tacitly endorses India’s unchecked aspirations, which have multiple times manifested in bullying in the region via posts and threats of brinksmanship. As India’s nuclear ecosystem is soon to be linked to Holtec’s reactors, Pakistan’s security calculus takes a draconian turn with it re-evaluating its defensive and diplomatic position.

If One with a record of nuclear missteps could be trusted with advanced technologies only because they serve US strategic interests, what’s to keep others from breaking the rules?

In addition, its implications do not remain restricted to South Asia. The agreement will allow for India’s nuclear ambitions without a compelling mechanism to ensure credible safeguards and without punishing it forcefully for past transgressions. The dangerous message it sends to the international community is that strategic alliances can trump ethical responsibilities. If One with a record of nuclear missteps could be trusted with advanced technologies only because they serve US strategic interests, what’s to keep others from breaking the rules?

It is not a red flag, since India’s track record, as detailed in different reports of thefts, smuggling and the like, is not trivial. Passing such a state off with high grade nuclear capabilities is bad judgment; it is an open invitation to catastrophes in future. Both at its naiveté and its disingenuousness, the idea that strict reporting and reports of peaceful use can do away with the risks is naïve.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.