Cross-border clashes, territorial disputes, and the shadow of nuclear deterrence have conventionally defined the long-standing feud between India and Pakistan. However, recently, a more serious issue has emerged — the securitization of water. As both nations are vulnerable to climate change, growing populations, and decreasing water resources, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which was once used as a model for conflict resolution, has been held in abeyance by India. Water is silently replacing guns as tools of strategic coercion, bringing about a new age of confrontation where water, not weapons, can provoke tensions between the two nuclear neighboring states.

India’s decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty(IWT) came after a deadly attack on April 22 by an armed group, The Resistance Front (TRF), in Pahalgam, one of the most popular tourist destinations in Indian Occupied Kashmir. According to Indian Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, 25 Indians and one Nepalese tourist have been killed in this deadly attack. After the attack, India took retaliatory decisions, including the expulsion of all Pakistani military advisors from the Pakistani High Commission and the withdrawal of Indian staff from Islamabad, and also terminated the visa services for Pakistanis.

Signed in September 1960 between Pakistani President, Ayub Khan, and Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and mediated by the World Bank the treaty gives Pakistan access to the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) while giving India the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej). Under this treaty, India can use western rivers to generate hydroelectric power and for some agricultural purposes, but cannot build infrastructure that restricts the water flow to Pakistan.

Projects like the Kishanganga dam (330MW) on the Jhelum and Ratle (850MW) on the Chenab have alarmed Pakistan

In recent years, India has increasingly invested in hydroelectric infrastructure on the western rivers, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. Projects like the Kishanganga dam (330MW) on the Jhelum and Ratle (850MW) on the Chenab have alarmed Pakistan, which fears that India could manipulate river flows, especially during critical agricultural seasons. Islamabad views such moves not just as development projects but as tools of strategic leverage.

After the 2016 Uri attack in Jammu and Kashmir that resulted in the death of 17 Indian soldiers, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that “blood and water cannot flow together” during a meeting with the Water Ministry related to the IWT. Soon after the Pulwama attack that killed 40 paramilitary force officials, the Indian Water Resources Minister, Nitin Gadkari, threatened to suspend water flow to Pakistan. Modi’s words back then ring true today after blaming Pakistan for state-sponsored terrorism and officially suspending the IWT.

Weaponizing water is a broader trend of “non-kinetic” strategies, including cyberattacks, economic sanctions, and information conflict. Water manipulation offers a low-cost, high-impact method of achieving strategic goals that avoids international condemnation. Despite the strategic objectives, weaponizing water is a dangerous path that fuels retaliatory actions, undermines trust, and pushes an already fragile relationship toward misperception.

India’s suspension of the IWT would serve as a precedent for the collapse of other transboundary water treaties globally

More troubling, India’s suspension of the IWT would serve as a precedent for the collapse of other transboundary water treaties globally. This sends a troubling message to other regions battling similar challenges, such as the Nile Basin or the Mekong River.

The Indus River system maintains a population of millions of people, supporting nearly 64 percent of rural livelihoods

According to the most recent economic survey, which was released in 2024, Pakistan is an agricultural economy with agriculture accounting for 37.4 percent of employment and 24 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Another survey by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics states that the majority of the country’s population is directly or indirectly connected with agriculture. Over 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture is dependent on these rivers.

Pakistan is already a water-scarce country, and now the suspension of IWT may trigger a famine-like situation in the coming year, or even lead to a civil war-like situation. The Indus River system maintains a population of millions of people, supporting nearly 64 percent of rural livelihoods.

Besides, all these effects India cannot stop or divert these waters immediately. India is an upper riparian state, and the western rivers allocated to Pakistan have very high flow, especially in summers between May and September, as glaciers melt during this period. India does not have a proper infrastructure to stop or divert these waters, especially in this season.

Pakistan also vowed to suspend all bilateral agreements between the two nations, including the Simla Agreement of 1972, which legitimized the Line of Control (LoC) in the Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh region

In a controversial measure taken by New Delhi, the National Security Committee (NSC) has warned that diverting the belongings of Pakistan will be considered as “an act of war.” The judgement followed India’s unilateral decision to suspend the 60-year-old Indus Water Treaty. Moreover, Pakistan has suspended trade and closed its airspace to any Indian owned or Indian-operated airline, canceled the visas of all Indian citizens with immediate effect under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES), except for Sikh religious pilgrims. Pakistan also declared all Indian Defense, air, and naval advisors persona non grata and directed them to leave Pakistan immediately, not later than April 30, 2025, and also instructed the Indian government to reduce the number of diplomats and staff to 30, with effect from April 30.

Pakistan also vowed to suspend all bilateral agreements between the two nations, including the Simla Agreement of 1972, which legitimized the Line of Control (LoC) in the Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh region.

The changing dynamics between the two nuclear-armed states indicate a serious shift in their strategic calculus, away from military confrontations and nuclear posture towards the nascent deployment of water as an instrument of political coercion. The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, previously hailed as a shining exception to cooperation in the face of hostility, portends the collapse of confidence and institutionalized conflict management. In converting water from a common good to a statecraft tool, both countries jeopardize not only worsening bilateral relations but also unsettling regional peace and establishing a dangerous precedent for international transboundary water management.

For India, it can provide short-term political benefits but risks long-term strategic backlash and global attention

For Pakistan, an agrarian-dependent and water-scarce country, the move risks national cohesion, economic stability, and food security. For India, it can provide short-term political benefits but risks long-term strategic backlash and global attention. The path forward is not in river manipulation but in re-engagement, collaborative hydro politics, and the reaffirmation of international agreements that protect common natural resources. In a time of climate and resource pressure, peace cannot run without water, and neither can development or dignity for the millions who rely on it.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.