Pakistan is facing a growing water crisis that threatens both the unity of its provinces and the country’s agricultural foundation. Although the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and disputes with India frequently garner international attention, the growing tensions over water distribution among Pakistan’s provinces are a more pressing and immediate issue. At a time when Pakistan is confronting a water dispute with India, the inter-provincial crisis regarding water distribution is exacerbating Pakistan’s water crisis.

The water crisis is not just a resource conflict; it is a challenge to federalism.

The primary legislative piece regulating the distribution of surface water among Pakistan’s provinces is the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord (WAA). However, political grandstanding, data obscurity, and hydroclimatic change have rendered the Accord increasingly ineffective. The mismanagement and oversight have led to an arena of doubt amongst the provinces, which all call for equity.

The biggest example of this contention lies between Punjab and Sindh. Sindh holds historic grievances against Punjab for over-extracting water resources, especially during low-melt seasons, which it claims violates and undermines its due amount under WAA. Accusations involve holding control of water gauges, delayed notifications from the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), and canal management done in favour of upstream consumers.

The upstream-downstream dynamic has always been susceptible to climate injustice. This creates severe consequences for the agriculture sector of Sindh and the Indus Delta ecosystem, which is rapidly degenerating. Human activities like over-extraction of freshwater lead to saltwater intrusion, which threatens the livelihoods of farmers and the ecosystem at large. When innocent lives face the brunt of institutional failure, belief in a better quality of life diminishes.

Balochistan reflects this dire situation. Balochistan, an arid region, largely depends on Sindh for its water supply through shared systems, such as the Pat Feeder Canal. However, poor infrastructure in Sindh leads to high propagation loss, which results in a shortage of water supply faced by Balochistan. This intra-provincial injustice remains cloaked due to the lack of political representation in federal water bodies and mainstream media.

While Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) does not meddle in the Indus Water dispute, it still looms at risk, especially with the Kabul River, which it shares with Afghanistan. Climate change poses an increased challenge to riparian states as the water supply becomes vulnerable over transboundary exchange. KP is left exposed and insecure to climate threats.

Sindh holds historic grievances against Punjab for over-extracting water resources.

To make matters worse, climate change has expedited matters. Pakistan faces water scarcity as its per capita water availability is below 1,000 m³. This, coupled with the uncertainty that climate change brings in the form of glacial melt, erratic monsoons, and prolonged droughts, all create climate anxiety. Moreover, climate models project further reductions in surface water flows, disproportionately affecting downstream parties: Sindh and Balochistan. This calls for action to be taken.

The water crisis is not just a resource conflict; it is a challenge to federalism. Unless there is serious reform, interprovincial water tensions have the potential to escalate into greater political estrangement, economic balkanization, and even civil strife. Pakistan cannot afford to allow water to become the next cause of conflict, creating national security challenges.

Hence, the future requires a new paradigm of water governance. A federal oversight balanced by decentralized responsibility: the center provides fairness and enforces standards, but provinces need to be enabled and held accountable for internal administration, transparency, and conservation. Pakistan requires a climate-resilient plan too: investment in infrastructure for storage, eco-friendly irrigation, and safeguarding groundwater reserves.

Furthermore, the IRSA must implement revisionary measures. Firstly, it is advisable to install automated telemetry to track water flows more accurately. Secondly, water flow data should be made public to bring back citizens’ trust in the state. Thirdly, provincial representation in water decision-making should ensure that conflicts are resolved in a non-discriminatory manner.

Balochistan suffers silently due to infrastructure losses and a lack of political voice.

There is much that can be done and much that can be left. However, inaction and oversight will only cause fragmentation and mistrust. The problem goes beyond “who gets how much water”; rather, it is about safeguarding citizens’ rights. So that Pakistan remains capable of fighting external threats rather than facing them from within its borders.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.