Yes, the Indus Water Treaty IWT can withstand the 21st-century realities with some amendments because it has survived the wars of 1965,1971,1999 and the incidents of Pulwama and Uri. Now, the recent Pahlagam incident in Indian-occupied Kashmir IOK has raised threats to the Indus water treaty and about 27 civilian has been killed in that incident. India has suspended the treaty but has not yet terminated it officially. The Indus Water Treaty is a sign of mutual dependence for both India and Pakistan and it is considered one of the most effective water sharing treaties in the world. Therefore, both states cannot afford to withdraw from this treaty, and legal termination of the treaty requires the consent of both adversaries.

India has suspended the treaty but has not yet terminated it officially.

The 1947 partition of British India, not only divided the land and people but also divided the important river system. In 1948 India blocked the water supply to Pakistan and that was a major turning point to think about water security. The Indus Water Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi, Pakistan. It is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan and World Bank WB is a signatory/mediator of this treaty. The IWT was about the sharing of six important rivers between India and Pakistan.

Under Article 2 of the Indus Water Treaty, the three Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) were allocated to India. Under Article 3 of the Indus Water Treaty, the Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) were given to Pakistan. The Eastern rivers used by India will be unrestricted and Pakistan has no right to use them while the western rivers will be unrestricted for Pakistan to use them but also India can use them for domestic use, nonconsumptive use, agriculture use, and generation of HEP.

There is a Permanent Indus commission under the Indus water treaty. That commission includes two commissioners, each from both states. They are funded by their government. A three-stage mechanism is given in the treaty to resolve any dispute regarding water or rivers. The first stage is the Permanent Indus Commission and when any question or issue is raised then it is presented in front of both commissioners from each state and tries to resolve through dialogue. When the problem is not resolved the second stage starts and the issue is submitted to neutral experts who look into the differences. When the second stage fails to resolve the issue then the last and third stage starts and the Permanent Court of Arbitration, a stage of the dispute. At this stage, legal steps have been taken.

The Indus Water Treaty is not regime-specific but state-specific.

After the completion of 65 years, the Indus Water Treaty is still a functional and unique example of India and Pakistan’s cooperation even during wars, conflicts, and diplomatic tensions. But now the recent Pahlagam incident and the 21st century pressure present threats to the Indus water treaty, but it does not seem to be terminated but needs some changes and advancement. By looking into the history of the Indus Water Treaty then we can understand that despite wars, conflicts, and diplomatic tension between Pakistan and India, the treaty remains alive and persistent. Three important factors help in sustaining of Indus Water Treaty: Mutual dependence, a legally structured and binding agreement, and International pressure.

In the 1965 war, both states engaged in full-scale war but none of them terminated the treaty because both states needed water for survival for example agriculture, energy, and other aspects that’s why they thought rationally about keeping IWT separate from war. Moreover, from the past incidents and events, it’s clear that they were/are not willing to terminate the treaty. If India tries to stop or block the water then it will be considered as an act of war by Pakistan. Similarly, this act will encourage China to stop the flow of the Brahmaputra River towards India.

The Indus Water Treaty will be sustained because of its legal structure and binding. India or Pakistan cannot unilaterally revoke this treaty, and for termination of the Indus water treaty under article 12 (4),  it is necessary that both states have consent on it. Moreover, this treaty is not government or regime-specific specific but it is state-specific.

Similarly, if India terminates the treaty then Pakistan has an international forum to defend its own stance under international law. Most important is that if India revokes the Indus water treaty then India will face international pressure and the World Bank and the United Nations will consider this termination unilaterally as tampering with the treaty and it would hurt India’s image at the global level. Behind this suspension, India needs to construct Dams such as running 330 MW.

Kishanganga dam on Jhelum and the 850 MW under construction Ratle dam on the Chenab River just to store more water but Pakistan already rejected these recommendations. India seeks to stop sharing data with Pakistan and to block Pakistani officials from future inspection of hydropower facilities.

If India stops or blocks water, it will be considered an act of war by Pakistan.

It is clear that the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty by India after the Pahlagam incident is not likely to be permanently terminated but it will be suspended for some time. India seeks some changes and transformation in the Indus water treaty that’s why India suspended the treaty. Moreover, Pakistan can retaliate if India stops or blocks water to Pakistan.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.