The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is a Uyghur Muslim Islamist organisation, that aims to create an independent Islamic state, “East Turkestan”, which covers areas in China, Central Asia, and South Asia. It was designated as a terrorist group by the US jointly with China after 9/11 but was removed by the Trump administration in 2020, reflecting a subtle change in US policy.

Although, ETIM and BLA have common hostility against China, ideological differences exist between the two, hindering their collaboration. Notably, however, given that both groups have something to gain from cross-border ventures, both groups may be able to mobilise cross-border activity, promote the disruption of the CPEC, and indirectly challenge China’s regional goals.

If ETIM attacks against China it will be restrained due to the military and counterterrorism strength of China, but it will possibly cause instability in the region, increasing humanitarian concerns, and creating tensions globally.

The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is a Muslim Islamist group which was founded by Uyghur Muslims who are members of the Turkic-speaking ethnic majority in northwest China’s Xinjiang province

The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is a Muslim Islamist group which was founded by Uyghur Muslims who are members of the Turkic-speaking ethnic majority in northwest China’s Xinjiang province. Its major objective is to establish an independent Islamic state, East Turkestan, that would cover areas of Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR).

Following The U.S. and China alliance, The U.S. Treasury Department designated ETIM as a terrorist organisation after the U.S. and Chinese collaboration against antiterrorism followed the events of September 11, 2001, where China had been waging its counterterrorism offensive in Xinjiang against Uyghur separatists simultaneously.

On November 5, 2020, two days after the US presidential election, the Trump administration delisted ETIM as a terrorist group signalling a nuanced approach. The timing could not be more sardonic for The West, particularly the United States which has increasingly spotlighted the alleged genocide and oppression of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. Linking ETIM to Uyghur resistance reflects the U.S. efforts to frame ETIM as part of a broader Uyghur resistance rather than a terrorist threat and to amplify global attention to China’s actions leading to sanctions or diplomatic actions to counterbalance China.

While ETIM and BLA have joint hostility towards Chinese culture, an alliance is unlikely but not impossible due to their difference in ethnic, regional and ideological aspirations. The main point to be considered in their alliance is their shared opposition to China where ETIM opposes Chinese rule over Xinjiang and aims to establish an independent East Turkestan. Because of this, the Xinjiang province in western China is facing security threats from ETIM.

While, BLA believes the role of China is exploitative in Pakistan and is against mega development projects in Balochistan, including CPEC mainly the Gwadar Port. The Chinese companies are currently developing Gwadar because of its geopolitical importance for both China and Pakistan (CPEC). Due to this, there have been many incidents of kidnapping and killing of Chinese citizens working and living in Pakistan.

Joint attacks on their sides of the CPEC would pose challenges to the successful completion of CPEC causing political instability in the region

Joint attacks on their sides of the CPEC would pose challenges to the successful completion of CPEC causing political instability in the region and pressurise the government thus affecting  bilateral relations between China and Pakistan. They can exploit both states’ weaknesses by BLA capitalising on the internal instability in Pakistan and ETIM taking advantage of China’s challenges in securing Xinjiang’s vast and remote areas. Also, the cracks in international relations (U.S.-China tensions) can be manipulated to gain diplomatic support or reduce global support for China’s counterterrorism efforts to carry out these attacks.

With BLA being secular and ETIM being Islamist, Both Al-Qaeda and the Taliban can also be used as intermediaries between BLA and ETIM to bridge the gap between their ideological differences

Strategic sabotage by one of these groups would also complement their objectives without direct collaboration. ETIM militants have long sought shelter in Pakistan’s tribal areas along with the local militants . They are also known to have relations with Afghanistan and Al-Qaeda networks due to their geographical proximity and routes and a historical overlap with Al-Qaeda and Taliban since Balochistan is in close proximity to Afghanistan. Given their past relationships, they can keep the Taliban and AL-Qaeda in the loop for bigger international coordinated attacks and provide financial assistance to each other through resource sharing, weapons smuggling and logistics.

With BLA being secular and ETIM being Islamist, Both Al-Qaeda and the Taliban can also be used as intermediaries between BLA and ETIM to bridge the gap between their ideological differences. They both can also use media to gain international recognition for their cause. They can recruit young people through X, Facebook and other platforms to utilise local grievances, such as unemployment and exploitation.

They can also urge the Uyghur and Baloch diaspora to raise awareness and amplify their cause in the West to draw attention to China and Pakistan’s repressive practices and gain financial and political support. Considering their ideological differences, collaboration between them is quite feasible, however brief.

With ETIM having fewer resources, it would be a monumental challenge, an improbable scenario to attack a vast, diverse, and economically integrated country like China which has strong military, security and counterterrorism efforts. However, China has to remain vigilant against the threat of extremism.

ETIM’s main purpose for the attack would be to dominate the Han-centric Chinese policies and the establishment of Islam in Xinjiang, which would lead to the marginalisation of the Han population which constitutes about 92% of China’s population. Millions of Han Chinese and other ethnic groups would become refugees which would lead to a humanitarian crisis and civil war would emerge in China as Han Chinese and other ethnic groups might resist ETIM’s attack.

Some countries may use the alleged mistreatment of Uyghurs as an opportunity to exploit China by using the attack to label the concentration camps as China repressing the minorities

Given China’s previous actions, there may be intensified crackdowns on Uyghur communities, potentially leading to more detentions, surveillance and the government might think of assimilating Uyghurs into Han culture, imposing bans on traditional Uyghur practices and languages creating turmoil in the country. While some countries might align with China in combating terrorism other countries may use the alleged mistreatment of Uyghurs as an opportunity to exploit China by using the attack to label the concentration camps as China repressing the minorities.

This would mainly help the U.S. given the international competition. By undermining the counterterrorism narrative of China, The US would then have grounds to frame China’s anti-terror measures simply as religious and ethnic discrimination and remove China from international competition.

China may increase military or economic pressure and fortify its borders with countries like Afghanistan which are accused of harbouring ETIM members to prevent the cross-border movement of militants

With the Trump administration expelling ETIM as a terrorist organisation, the Chinese government would intensify its efforts to have it designated as a terrorist organisation again so that it could use it to justify its policies against the Uyghurs by portraying itself as the victim of terrorism. This would also cause regional instability because the attack would affect the Belt and Road Initiative disrupting China’s global trade ambitions.

Moreover, China is the hub of manufacturing with Xinjiang having rich resources like oil, gas, minerals, and cotton that could cause disruptions in supply chains thus causing economic consequences. China may increase military or economic pressure and fortify its borders with countries like Afghanistan which are accused of harbouring ETIM members to prevent the cross-border movement of militants.

In conclusion, The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) poses a significant but manageable threat to Chinese sovereignty, particularly in Xinjiang. While collaboration between ETIM and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) remains unlikely due to deep-rooted ideological and regional differences, shared antagonism toward China’s economic and political influence creates opportunities for tactical, short-term alliances.

Such cooperation could undermine regional stability, disrupt China-Pakistan relations, and jeopardise major infrastructure projects like CPEC. If ETIM were to launch a major attack on China the emerging instability could destabilise China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and affect global supply chains, and regional geopolitics.

These situations may also further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis for Uyghurs through stricter crackdowns by the Chinese. With China’s efforts for both soft and hard power and its sufficient resources, it is a implausible condition to consider that any terrorist group could launch an attack that would affect China severely.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.