From “we unequivocally support Israel’s right to self-defense” to “If you call for a ceasefire, it’s only consistent that you do not supply weapons of war” and “Netanyahu must not forget that his country was created by a UN decision”, President Macron’s stance has dramatically shifted as the Middle East crisis escalates. Israel has launched a ground invasion of Lebanon – a move that perturbed the French government. What started as diplomatic support has now transformed into a potential hardline response, as the conflict spills over into Lebanon, producing a sharp turn in the adopted by France.

There are various reasons for the aggressive posture of France, ranging from the historical ties, growing domestic and international pressure for a ceasefire and, above all, regaining her diminished clout in the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon.

Following World War I, Lebanon and Syria were mandated by the French. The mandate system aimed to transition these territories from imperial control to self-governance under international supervision. Until 1943, Lebanon remained a French Protectorate. Thereafter, Lebanon gained independence as France transferred the power to the Lebanese government. By taking the 1932 consensus into account, it was decided that the President, Prime Minister and Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies would be a Christian, Sunni, and Shia respectively. During this period, France tried to ‘Francize’ Lebanon by introducing French institutions, language, and education system, supporting socioeconomic and political reforms, and establishing strong ties with the, traditionally pro-French, Maronite community.

These developments did not happen in isolation as Macron has been strategically focusing on the Middle East for the past several years.

In 1975, when civil war erupted in Lebanon, France found itself walking a tightrope between the PLO – the newly found ally as a result of reinvigorated Arab Policy – and Lebanon, its historical partner. Therefore, France adopted a neutral stance and accelerated its diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. After the invasion of Israel in 1978, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was established and France was the first country to send troops.

Later on, France deployed around 1500 troops as part of the Multinational Force in Lebanon (MNF) to stabilize Beirut, following the invasion of Israel. In 1983, France lost 58 soldiers due to Beirut barracks bombings and had to withdraw from Lebanon. Consequently, it confined itself only to diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the conflict.

As the time progressed, France played an important indirect role in the Taif Agreement (1989) as it remained engaged with Lebanese political actors and endorsed the agreement as a means of ending this conflict. Following the agreement, France provided diplomatic and financial support for Lebanon’s reconstruction.

The assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri – a key figure in Lebanon’s reconstruction after the civil war – on 14th February 2005 triggered the Cedar Revolution which called for the end of Syrian military presence in Lebanon. France pushed for international accountability for Hariri’s death by co-authoring the UNSC resolution 1595 which called for an international investigation into the assassination. The investigation led to the creation of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in 2009. Meanwhile, the Arab Spring plunged the region into chaos and led to sectarian violence in Lebanon.

On the other hand, the Iran-backed Hezbollah continued to gain influence in Lebanon. The already diminishing French influence nosedived when France decided to support the ‘rebels’ in Syria to overthrow the Assad’s regime. The decision proved to be counterproductive as Russia came to rescue Bashar Al Assad. In 2020, Macron visited Lebanon, talked about the crippling political system and called for reforms. His comments upset the political factions in Lebanon and he was reminded that he should not act like ‘the ruler of Lebanon’. It shows how France’s influence has eroded over time.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel which marked the beginning of another phase of the Israel-Palestine conflict. After a year, Israel killed 42,000 human beings – 17,000 of them were children –  bombed schools and hospitals, displaced 1.9 million people with 9 out of every 10 no longer in their homes, and attacked UN officials. It has now escalated and spilt over into Lebanon as Israel has launched a ground invasion into Lebanon to fight Hezbollah. This has presented France with an opportunity to regain its clout in Lebanon by intervening and resolving the ongoing conflict.

The change in Macron’s stance can be seen as, earlier, he had talked about Israel’s right to defend itself and the need for a ceasefire, whereas now, he is considering a ban on weapon supply to Israel. He went on to call upon the West to take action so that peace could prevail in the region. While calling for arms sales, he stated “The Lebanese people must not in turn be sacrificed, Lebanon cannot become another Gaza”. Macron, along with the outgoing Biden, reiterated at the Berlin summit that peace in Gaza is an “immediate necessity”.

The United States is gradually shifting its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific and has a limited presence in the region.

France’s historical ties with Lebanon compel it to take a proactive role in the resolution, or at least containment, of the Israel-Palestine conflict to avoid the suffering of the Lebanese People. In addition, there is mounting domestic and international pressure on Macron’s government to stop the bloodshed in Gaza. However, it is the changing geopolitical realities that drive Macron to adopt a harder stance.

Meanwhile, the United States is gradually shifting its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific and has a limited presence in the region. While Russia remains engaged in Ukraine and its influence limited to its involvement in Syria, no Arab state appears to be capable of filling the geopolitical vacuum left by the American withdrawal. In contrast, Iranian influence in the region has increased, while Turkey is expanding its footprint in Lebanon. It seems Macron perceives the resolution/containment of the Israel-Palestine conflict as not only a means to end violence but also as an opportunity to regain France’s political clout in Lebanon, curb Iranian and Turkish influence, and reestablish France as an important player in the Middle East.

However, these developments did not happen in isolation as Macron has been strategically focusing on the Middle East for the past several years. In 2020, Macron put forth the idea of ‘inclusive sovereignty’ during his visit to Baghdad. He went on to say that the leaders want to take their destiny in hand and “the role of France is to help them”. An Iraqi official stated that it was an indirect message to Ankara.

Earlier in 2021, the UAE inked a $19 billion deal to buy 80 Rafale fighter jets and 12 military helicopters.

France also enjoys a close relationship with Qatar, which has made heavy investments in France. In this connection, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani agreed to invest $10.83 billion in French startups. On the eve of 50 years of France-Qatar friendship, they have decided to strengthen their strategic partnership. This economic bond complements France’s political and diplomatic ambitions in the region.

Earlier in 2021, the UAE inked a $19 billion deal to buy 80 Rafale fighter jets and 12 military helicopters. And there were reports that the oil-rich Gulf State had been mulling over more of these fighter jets. Meanwhile, the airlines based in the Gulf States are important customers of Airbus – the main rival of Boeing, the US manufacturer.

All in all, the Israel- Palestine conflict is moving up on the escalation ladder. It has reached the borders of Lebanon and can potentially transform into a broader regional conflict. France has a historical connection with Lebanon, starting from the early 20th century when it was governed by France under the Mandate system to the Lebanon Civil War and Rafiq Hariri’s assassination.

Whether it was about the post-civil war reconstruction or co-authoring the UNSC resolution to push for accountability, France has always been proactive when it comes to Lebanon. Once again, France decided to take a proactive role when it realized that the Israel-Palestine conflict could spill over into Lebanon. This time, it is seen as a blessing in disguise as resolution or containment of this conflict would allow France to regain its political clout in Lebanon and pave its way to become an important player in the Middle East.