Another day and another story of self-victimization by the arch rival India. However, this time things have not worked as the top brass in India would have hoped for. The Pahalgam false flag operation as termed by the Pakistani authorities is a gross violation of the International Law and Geneva Conventions as well as of United Nations Charter. By characterizing the militant activity immediately with Pakistan has become a visible pattern of New Delhi under BJP’s government in more than one instance. Focusing on this particular event and its aftermath, the Indian authorities took no long to allegedly put the entire burden of incursion on so-called affiliated organization (The Resistance Front) linked with Pakistan. On the contrary, Pakistan’s foreign office condemned this act of militancy and offered its sympathy.
However, after this tragic event took place on 22nd April,2025 New Delhi has seemed to be in haste. The long surviving and battle-tested Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was the first casualty post this horrific terror incident. The Indian top brass has seemingly preconceived this decision as no deliberations were made after the incident. The Indian government declared IWT to be held in abeyance, downgraded diplomatic ties and closed Attari-Wagah border. To track down this legally, there is no provision in the charter of IWT, negotiated by the World Bank back in 1960, for a unilateral withdrawal. This can be attributed to be a political objective of the Modi government. Another aspect can be that since Prime Minister Modi’s election bid for a two-third majority was shattered in the last year’s general elections so PM can resort to some (mis)adventure to soothe his populace and right wing RSS fan base.
The PM of Pakistan has offered a neutral and thorough investigation of the whole terror incident
However, these are calculated assumptions based on the ground realities and the pulse of politics in the Indian theatre over the course of decades. Another and pertinent topic which deserves due consideration is what Prime Minister Shehbaz of Pakistan has said in response to Indian allegations. The PM of Pakistan has offered a neutral and thorough investigation of the whole terror incident and has emphasized on the pacific resolution of the heightened relations between two adversaries during the National Security Committee meeting. Now, the response from the Indian officials is noteworthy.
More than ten days have passed and no statement has come from Indian foreign ministry or Prime Minister of India about a potential probe into the matter. Although it is too soon to judge the overall response, the fiasco which has been created since definitely needs a proper response. Here is another interesting phenomenon which is unfolding amidst all this chaos. Few days back Indian Prime Minister announced its verdict on the incident by declaring Pakistan responsible for the terror activity during a high stake Cabinet meeting. In the second meeting, PM Narendra Modi handed over the powers to his military to take the appropriate measures to respond to Pakistan.
Contrastingly, Pakistan depicted strategic clarity and high diplomacy at this extraordinary moment.
Contrastingly, Pakistan depicted strategic clarity and high diplomacy at this extraordinary moment. Director General Inter-Services Public Relations (DG-ISPR), a spokesperson of Pakistan Military conducted two press briefings and put a detailed account of the Indian involvement in acts of terrorism in Pakistan and debunked the Indian propaganda. This was backed up by the video presentation which highlighted the alleged role of intelligence and military of India. A second presser was along with the deputy Prime minister and foreign minister Ishaq Dar that manifested the same pattern and conveyed a firm resolve of defense of territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country.
However, the matter has not got out of hands as United States(US) Secretary of State, Marco Rubio has had a telephone call with his counterparts in India and Pakistan, and emphasized need for restraint and de-escalate tensions. This is an encouraging gesture from the US as for all its strategic cooperation with India; it gave a very balanced comment on the situation unfolding on a nuclear flashpoint in South Asia. The gravity of the event may have blurred the subtle facts of the unfortunate militant attack, nonetheless it is not alike the previous militant incursions which were swiftly blamed on Pakistan and one way or the other India was on the offense until only a major power intervenes. China, Russia, EU and the US are closely observing the development in the region.
The shuffle in the Indian Higher command and its premier Intelligence agency Research and Intelligence wing (R&W) has raised alarms within India particularly in its bellicose Media
As of now, both armed forces are conducting drills and military exercises, which have become a standard operating procedure (SOP) in such circumstances to convey battle preparedness and military mettle. The long awaited response of an official source from India has yet to come on whether they are considering a impartial probe into this matter or will this be confined to lip service only. Only time will tell, however one thing is becoming apparent that Pahalgam attack is just the tip of the iceberg. The shuffle in the Indian Higher command and its premier Intelligence agency Research and Intelligence wing (R&W) has raised alarms within India particularly in its bellicose Media.
Gratefully, sanity has prevailed so far between two nuclear armed rivals. The deterrence is effectively in place. The military response which the Indian top brass is discussing is highly likely to be a tactical one with certain political aims rather than a strategic one which could instill a prolonged war. Both states have fought four wars since their inception and both are wary of each other capabilities that are probably the reason they have exercised restraint in the most delicate of the times.
The United States has demonstrated a subtle balancing stance on the Pahalgam attack, now that it can ask both countries to initiate a political dialogue
What could be expected now from India and Pakistan? A political reconciliation would be the best course of action which will involve rigorous diplomacy and high level talks between state officials. Despondently, this is the least expected one. More likely it would be a third party who will offer its good offices and back channel talks to back off from war like situation. We have the precedent of the Soviet Union and United States playing a mediating role, more often it is the later. Notwithstanding, certain aspects should be resolved or at least discussed with fair amount of heed given to the core issues like cross-border terrorism, crisis mitigation mechanisms and political talks.
The United States has demonstrated a subtle balancing stance on the Pahalgam attack, now that it can ask both countries to initiate a political dialogue. However, no tall hopes should be affix to such mediation since its Donald Trump in the White House, who can turn the show on its head!
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
