Five years after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government changed the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, the central government’s hawkish and illegal approach to the region has left it more vulnerable to regional and geopolitical threats.

While Kashmir Valley, has withstood the brunt of multiple rounds of political and armed violence since 1989, the theatre of conflict has now extended into the otherwise peaceful region of Jammu. Since 2019, at least 262 soldiers and 171 civilians have died in more than 690 incidents, including the February 2019 Pulwama incident, across Kashmir. The evolving conflict, with the populace challenging the iron grip of India over Jammu and Kashmir underscores the risks to both regional stability and security. These are the outcomes of India’s unilateral policy choices preferring illegal annexation over political settlement.

In 2019, the Modi government revoked Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which granted the state of Jammu and Kashmir its special status, eliminating the symbolic autonomy of the disputed region. Concurrently, the central government also imposed indefinite harsh measures in the region including communications blackouts and granting arbitrary arrest powers to law enforcement in a bid to suppress the local population. The result was a transformed landscape, already tarnished by militarization, now turned into an open prison.

THE UNENDING SOCIOECONOMIC CONSEQUNCES POST-ABROGATION:

Even though the Indian Supreme Court eventually approved this undemocratic action, it has since sparked more legislative amendments. For instance, the local populace is no longer eligible for special safeguards that formerly restricted government employment applications and property purchases in Jammu and Kashmir to the state’s permanent residents alone. This is changing the demography of the region, with the goal to undermine majority of Muslims. Meanwhile, in March 2020, the government repealed 12 and amended 14 land-related laws, proposing a provision allowing top army officials to designate a local region as strategically significant and another that opened the door for a development authority to seize land.

The ease with which government organizations can now confiscate both residential and agricultural areas in the name of development and security has alarmed the local populace. This led mass evictions and the demolition of homes, which disproportionately harm Muslim communities and small landowners. This is replication of Israeli’s displacement strategy in occupied Palestine in a bid to invite settlers from others parts of India.

Meanwhile, the ecological fallout is another outcome of the Article 370 revocation, including massive road and railway networks coupled with the plans for mega hydroelectricity projects, which will pollute the riverbeds and cause villages to sink. Since 2019, there hasn’t been any local representation to serve as a check on large-scale development projects, the majority of which are now governed by New Delhi.

THE ONGOING POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS OF ARTICLE 370’s REMOVAL:

The Modi administration has also suppressed opposition in the area over the past few years by rerouting the military to continue monitoring and controlling the civilian populace. The controversial Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act and the Public Safety Act of India resulted in the arrest of over 2,700 persons in the region between 2020 and 2023, according to the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir.

There is now even less trust between Kashmiris and the Indian government because of Modi regime’s oppressive actions. The disparity between the national government and local ground realities has widened because of the top-down administration’s continued marginalization of local police officers and officials. In addition to causing hardship for the local populace, all of this has put India’s already precarious relations with its two nuclear neighbors, Pakistan and China, in jeopardy.

For the first time in 10 years, there may be a chance for the people of Jammu and Kashmir to select their local administration thanks to the current regional elections. But no matter who wins the elections, the local leaders would not have the authority to implement significant change because the area is still governed by New Delhi due to its downgrading from a state to two union territories. Ladakh, however, still lacks a legislative assembly. Jammu and Kashmir has a so-called elected assembly, yet the governor appointed by the Modi-led central government is vested with executive powers.

According to Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the government of the seized land has changed, ushering in a new era of peace and swift economic expansion. Restrictions on civil freedoms are causing resentment among Kashmiris, and the BJP only fielded candidates for a small number of seats that are concentrated in certain districts. However, there has been an increase in conflicts between Indian forces and rebels from Kashmir, and this year’s municipal elections took place in September.

Local politicians and voters suffered a setback when the Indian government decided to further increase the governor’s supervisory authority. It will take a lot more work to alter the current situation. Even if it is still improbable, New Delhi needs to think about significant measures that could heal some of the political scars caused by the total dismantling of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy. One such measure could be the region’s return to statehood. The Indian government needs to restore civil freedoms and fulfill its pledge to create jobs and economic growth if it hopes to regain the trust of Kashmiris.

CONTINUED DISPROPORTIONS TO BE SORTED:

At the international level, recently, India again exploited the UN General Assembly forum to state that the Kashmir dispute is now left only in the context of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Thus, he implied that the Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir question had been settled once and for all with the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A on August 5, 2019. Unfortunately, once again India disregarded the political aspirations of Kashmiris. There are several UN Security Council resolutions on Kashmir and New Delhi has committed to hold a plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir to determine whether Kashmiris would like to join India or Pakistan. By reinforcing illegal constitutional amendments, India is only fueling the complexity.

Furthermore, normalizing relations in the neighborhood should not be predicated on a terrorism narrative. Neither Pakistan nor India can afford an escalation of conflict, whose risk has increased recently. Diplomatic negotiations, and revisiting of policies over Kashmir must begin for the betterment of regional progress and stability.