The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shaken up the security of the European continent and exposed how some of its allies ‘commitments’ were more for show than substance. Years have passed, still the Ukrainian issue is unresolved and no major steps have been taken by the first world countries to end the conflict. Undoubtedly, major factors contributed to the Russia Ukraine war, to name a few, the decision of the EU to integrate Ukraine in the EU and grant membership of NATO accelerated the security dilemma for Russian federation. At the same time, Russia’s military aggression has broken international law and violated the Geneva Convention. While I won’t go into who’s entirely to blame, Professor John Mearsheimer has argued that the actions of EU played a role in provoking Russia. Still I think we can all agree that Russia’s military actions are unjustifiable.

The victory of the President Donald Trump in recent elections took a turn. His victory marked a shift in US foreign policy, particularly when it came to how the US engages with its allies and Ukraine

However, from the start, the United States sided with EU and Ukraine to prevent the threats posed by Russia. But the victory of the President Donald Trump in recent elections took a turn. His victory marked a shift in US foreign policy, particularly when it came to how the US engages with its allies and Ukraine.

The ongoing war in Ukraine and shifting US policies under President Donald Trump have made European countries reassess their defense strategies. These countries are realizing that they need to reduce dependency on the US and become more self-sufficient.

What’s happening on the European continent is a clear sign of new arms race where countries that used to focus on social development are now shifting their GDP share to defense spending

European countries particularly France and Germany have increased defense budgets and positioned themselves to take on a stronger leadership role with the EU. France is using its nuclear capabilities to strengthen its role as a key safeguard against potential threats. While Germany as the EU’s largest economy is seeking to reclaim its past influence and power. Baltic countries and Poland are also investing in military modernization. What’s happening on the European continent is a clear sign of new arms race where countries that used to focus on social development are now shifting their GDP share to defense spending.

These countries are also working on creating a unified EU defense force alongside an independent military structure through the European Union defense Fund. Meanwhile, the Trump administration recent decision to halt intelligence sharing with Ukraine has raised eyebrows among US allies.

If the US can decide at any moment to stop sharing intelligence or providing financial support, how can European nations fully trust it for long-term security?

In response, the EU has rolled out its Steel Porcupine strategy aimed at supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities with investments in air defense system, interceptor missiles, drones, and long range warheads.

One thing that caught European leaders off guard was Trump’s phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin, where Trump seemed open to peace talks over Ukraine. The problem here is that this sort of bilateral discussion between the US and Russia could potentially undermine EU leaders and Ukraine. The main concern over here is that these talks could result in a dirty deal that does not address the security issues of all parties such as France, Germany and the UK.

Trump also repeatedly threatens to withdraw from NATO and reduce its funding which has left many European leaders skeptical of the US commitments in the event of a future crisis

During his time in office, Trump also repeatedly threatens to withdraw from NATO and reduce its funding which has left many European leaders skeptical of the US commitments in the event of a future crisis. That’s why countries like Germany and France are now talking with Turkiye about increasing defense expenditures and creating a new EU defense framework that does not rely on US heavily.

The world order is changing and the rise of president Donald Trump’s actions are accelerating a shift from a US led global structure. Many of American closest allies are starting to feel betrayed. For example, Trump’s imposition of tariffs on NATO members has only fueled the growing doubts about the US and whether it’s still a reliable partner.

The post-World War II era saw the European Union supporting the U.S. in establishing the current world order, but now, in the 21st century, we’re seeing a reversal of that trend. The nations that once supported U.S. leadership are beginning to look for ways to break free from that influence and build their own policies. The world is becoming more multipolar, with the Global South now contributing to over half of the global economy and representing half of the world’s population.

Trump’s decision to extract minerals from Ukraine in exchange for military support highlights just how the US is an unreliable partner, especially in difficult times .And his treatment of President Zelensky in the White House further showed that the US is not always respectful with its allies.

So now, the big question is: what’s the way forward for Ukraine and what does Europe’s future look like without relying on the US?

A ceasefire followed by the EU or UN mediated peace talks could lead to a negotiated settlement. A neutral stance for Ukraine like Austria had during the cold war might be one way forward

First off, while military support is important but diplomatic engagement with Russia is just as crucial. A peace agreement should include territorial guarantees for Ukraine while also addressing the security concerns of Russia. A ceasefire followed by the EU or UN mediated peace talks could lead to a negotiated settlement. A neutral stance for Ukraine like Austria had during the cold war might be one way forward.

EU countries should offer security guarantees to Ukraine, but without NATO membership. One option could be to create a demilitarized zone along the disputed areas to prevent future conflict.

Once the war ends, Europe should implement a recovery plan similar to the Marshal Plan to help rebuild Ukraine. The role of other major global players, such as China could be crucial in helping mediate peace talks.

The EU needs to position itself as a third global power alongside the US and China. Trade blocs such as RECP, the EU and Mercosur can help reduce dependency on the US, especially with the rise of protectionist policies coming from Washington.

The EU is moving towards more political, economic and defense autonomy, signaling the rise of a multipolar world

Undoubtedly, the Ukraine’ crisis has definitely accelerated Europe’s desire for independence from US-led security structures. The EU is moving towards more political, economic and defense autonomy, signaling the rise of a multipolar world.

Looking ahead, Europe’s future will depend on its ability to balance relations with the US, China and regional powers, while ensuring its own security and economic interests.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.