Galileo Gallie’s defiant assertion, “Eppur si muove – And yet it moves,” can be slightly modified to, “Eppure soffre – And yet it suffers,” to fittingly describe the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) unending anguish. Despite great ambitions the IAF significantly lags behind the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in fielding next-generation fighter aircraft.
The IAF significantly lags behind the PAF and PLAAF in fielding next-generation fighter aircraft despite its ambitious modernization plans.
Though the recent proposal by US President Donald Trump for the sale of F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter aircraft to India has excited many in Indian media and strategic circles, it does little to resolve the long-standing structural, logistical, and strategic challenges that have constrained the IAF’s modernisation.
Procuring a fifth-generation aircraft and obtaining initial operational capacity is a complex, time-intensive, and multilayered process shaped by several internal, external and intervening factors. The most crucial factors include the domestic political and bureaucratic procedures in India and the US. The Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme is governed by the Arms Export Control Act and other laws which provide an elaborated mechanism of assessments and approvals for selling lethal arms to friendly states.
It extensively involves the Pentagon, the State Department, the US Congress and the White House before finalising a deal. Keeping in view the previous US sales of the F-35 to Israel and Japan under FMS which took seven and nine years respectively, one can estimate the complexity on this cumbersome process.
In parallel, an equally cumbersome procedural route awaits on the Indian side. The process for acquiring the F-35 must be initiated through the Services Qualitative Requirements by the IAF and needs approval by the Defence Acquisition Council through the Acceptance of Necessity. In the subsequent stages, the Defence Ministry gets directly involved by issuing a Request for Proposals to various manufacturers.
The offers received are put to technical and field evaluation trials for performance assessment of the aircraft under consideration. An intense and complex commercial negotiations follows where the Cost Negotiation Committee takes the lead. The final decision to purchase rests with the Prime Minister-led Cabinet Committee on Security. Going through these stages, it took India twelve years in receiving the delivery of the first Dassault Rafael.
Now assuming that the F-35 deal is fast-tracked on both sides without surprises, and ignoring the reaction of the Indian opposition parties, the process starting from initiation of request to achieving full operational capability would likely span over six to seven years. Moreover, going by the estimates of the Indian analysts it might take almost a decade.
The US-imposed operational restrictions and refusal to integrate with Russian systems add further complications to India’s F-35 acquisition.
The ordeal transcends, further, into the realm of practical challenges. The F-35 has been designed for network-centric warfare requiring multifold software-driven capabilities for integration with existing platforms. The integration of India’s existing aircraft inventory with the F-35 would be possible only after the efficient synchronisation of various systems.
Moreover, the US refusal to allow the F-35 to operate alongside Russian systems adds another layer of complexity as reflected in the exclusion of Turkey from this programme. Furthermore, the US tradition of imposing operational restrictions on the buyers of its military equipment is another factor disliked by several Indian experts as it could curtail India’s strategic flexibility. Moreover, the fleet management of the F-35 will necessitate new infrastructure, training programmes, and operational doctrines.
The foreign procurement of fifth-generation aircraft will also affect Hindustan Aeronautics Limited’s (HAL) endeavour of producing India’s indigenous fifth-generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The institutional divide between the IAF and HAL has historically hampered India’s aviation projects like the LCA Tejas. The HAL is under severe criticism for the lack of innovation, operational delays and bureaucratic inertia and will be further relegated to obscurity after the arrival of the American bird.
If the F-35 proposal sails through these troubled waters, still the aircraft will have a minimal impact on the regional balance of air power. By the time the IAF achieves the initial operational capability of the F-35, the PLAAF will be completing the second decade of operating fifth-generation aircraft while its sixth-generation aircraft will also be around the corner. Meanwhile, the PAF will also have nearly half a decade of experience with the fifth-generation fighters along with other more advanced systems, rendering India’s technological leap obsolete before it even materialises.
Amidst these considerations, it is important to analyse the regional and geostrategic dimensions of this proposal. On one hand, the sale of the F-35 will help in tilting the Indo-US trade balance towards the US while on the other, the same aircraft would be used to protect the US interest in the Indo-Pacific Region.
Moreover, the proposal has also created a competitor for the Russian Su-57 Felon which has been advocated by most of the Indian air power experts. Moreover, the sale of an aircraft, which was previously criticised by President Trump and his close aide Elon Musk to the world’s largest military hardware buyer will relieve pressure from the US defence industry. Moreover, keeping in view the manner in which Mr Trump has proposed this idea one can infer that the F-35 is being forced down Modi’s throat.
By the time the IAF operationalizes the F-35, China and Pakistan will have years of experience with fifth-generation fighters, making India’s leap obsolete.
Despite President Trump’s lucrative offer, the IAF is a day late and a dollar short as its competitors have already taken lead. While the allure of the F-35 is undeniable, its real impact on India’s air power remains questionable. With the F-35 proposal, the IAF gets a little hope, but in essence, it suffers — Eppure soffre.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
