Clausewitzian wisdom suggests that every age has its own patterns of war and limiting conditions. Chariots, a dominant factor in the battlefields of ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia, were eventually supplanted by the rise of heavy cavalry. The thickly armored knights of the medieval era dominated frontlines but were made redundant by the advent of longbows, while gunpowder rendered them completely ineffective.

Successive generations of rifles and guns emerged and disappeared from battle arena, and the introduction of tanks and aircraft in World War I eventually brought trench warfare to an end. World War II witnessed, the once-decisive battleships eclipsing in front of aircraft carriers and submarines.

The unparalleled strategic flexibility provided by the rapid deployment of aircraft carriers transformed maritime and conventional warfare.

History has come full circle, as the experts are now debating the continued relevance of aircraft carriers due to the rise of advanced and sophisticated missile technologies. Since their inception, aircraft carriers have consistently served as symbols of military might, sources of power projection, and credible deterrents. The unparalleled strategic flexibility provided by the rapid deployment of aircraft carriers transformed maritime and conventional warfare. Additionally, they have demonstrated their value in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts.

The argument about the redundancy of aircraft carriers stems from revolutionary advancements in missile technologies. Contrary to this, the multi-layered defense systems of aircraft carriers make them resilient to such attacks. The advanced electronic warfare and missile defense technologies, with reliable early warning and interception capabilities, enable them to intercept high-speed missiles. Furthermore, saturating the defenses of a target is an old technique that can be employed against aircraft carriers; however, one cannot assume that navies are unprepared for such scenarios.

The skeptics in this domain also base their argument on the concept of distributed lethality. This involves using smaller, more agile vessels and distributing offensive and defensive capabilities more widely to enhance the overall resilience of naval forces by denying the adversary the opportunity to target a single high-value asset. However, the use of aircraft carriers and distributed lethality are not mutually exclusive, but rather complementary approaches.

The skeptics in this domain also base their argument on the concept of distributed lethality.

An aircraft carrier cannot achieve its objectives and becomes a vulnerable target unless supplemented with numerous smaller, nimble vessels through network-centric warfare. This enhances the defense capability by complicating and diluting the adversary’s target efforts by presenting several elusive targets while the aircraft carriers continue to project power. This approach also facilitates real-time data sharing and coordinated attack strategies.

In addition, as emerging technologies are rapidly dominating the battlefields and modifying military strategies, aircraft carriers are also expected to follow suit. One significant future development in this regard will be the integration of AI-backed unmanned combat aerial vehicles with aircraft carriers. UCAV swarms will not only help reduce the operational cost of the aircraft carriers but will also increase their lethality in attack and will make their defenses more formidable. Leveraging AI-Enhanced Decision Support Systems and AI-Driven Predictive Maintenance and Logistics will also enable aircraft carriers to maintain their dominance in an increasingly contested future environment.

The last but old argument posed against the future relevance of aircraft carriers is their economic viability. However, the substantial USD 13 billion cost of building and USD 1 billion for annually operating these majestic platforms is justified by the strategic dividends they provide. The economic argument is also overshadowed by the fact that almost all the major and middle powers either possess this technology already or are striving to acquire it.

One significant future development in this regard will be the integration of AI-backed unmanned combat aerial vehicles with aircraft carriers.

Currently, the United States operates the most advanced fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, followed by India, China, the United Kingdom, and Italy, each possessing two aircraft carriers. Russia and France are operating one aircraft carrier each. Furthermore, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and Australia are in the phase of building aircraft carriers of different types or are modifying existing vessels tailored to their requirements.

The future relevance of aircraft carriers also hinges on their ability to enable a state with strategic signaling and provide geopolitical influences by overcoming the limitations provided by geostrategic factors. As the global order is transforming and great powers’ competition is intensifying, oceans are likely to emerge as theatres of contestation. The ability of a state to project power offshore and freedom of navigation is going to be potent determinants of superpower status. Therefore, the Indo-Pacific region will particularly be the center of attention of major powers urging all the contenders to enhance their power through aircraft carriers.

The future relevance of aircraft carriers also hinges on their ability to enable a state with strategic signaling and provide geopolitical influences.

When the time comes, no matter how majestic and potent, every weapon eventually diminishes from the battlefield arenas. However, such a time for aircraft carriers does not seem to be on the horizon. With the integration of emerging technologies and adaptive deployment strategies, aircraft carriers can continue to dominate maritime warfare and serve as an indispensable source of strategic power projection, ensuring freedom of navigation for major powers.