In his State of Union address delivered before American Congress on February 7 this year, the US President Joseph Biden primarily focused on domestic issues but also touched upon foreign policy challenges, challenges particularly from the People’s Republic of China. While reiterating that America will continue to play a leadership role in world affairs, he cautioned Congress members against rising threats to global order.

With defense expenditures of $850 billion, debt of $32 trillion and GDP of $24 trillion, the United States is passing through a critical phase because its defense expenditures are going up along with debt, but the economy is declining. Consequently, the leadership role of America to sustain West’s tutelage is under challenge from China and Russia.

 The United States is passing through a critical phase because its defense expenditures are going up along with debt, but the economy is declining. Consequently, the leadership role of America to sustain West’s tutelage is under challenge from China and Russia.

The US President Joseph Biden is in a denial mode asserting that his country is not declining in terms of economy, global security, poor infrastructure and growing racial divide capable of causing enormous damage to America’s credibility and capacity to protect its national interests.

Is there US a declining power and if yes, then why its leadership is unable to reverse the process of a steady waning of its superpower status? How will the vacuum created as a result of American decline will have its ramifications in global order? To what extent the West will accept the US leadership and how rupture in the Atlantic alliance will further jeopardize American influence in global affairs? These are the questions which are raised in the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the growing Sino-Russian nexus to cut the US down to its size.

Historically, no power on earth can sustain its influence and hold forever. Huge empires having their tutelage for centuries diminished and gave rise to new centers of power. But, the example of the United States is different because since it got independence from Britain in 1776 till today, it massively expanded its power. In 2026, the US will celebrate its 250^th independence anniversary and from 13 states on July 5, 1776 it expanded to 50 states with enormous economic, technological and military progress surpassing European imperial powers and assuming number one position in global affairs as a superpower following the end of the Second World War.

United States is a classic example to understand how a weak state passed through the process of achieving, strengthening and demonstrating power. There is no other country in the history of the last 300 years which can match with America’s steady success in emerging as a global power. One needs to examine and analyze with critical thinking the projected decline of America from three angles. First, called as the land of opportunities, America regardless of apartheid system, excluding non-whites from basic rights including the right to vote till 1965, was called as the ‘land of opportunities’ and attracted talent from all over the world. Composed of migrants, excluding native Americans who were liquidated since the white European settlements from 16^th century onwards, those who assumed leadership role after seeking independence from Britain worked hard to build their country brick by brick and made full use of enormous resources available to their country.

 The turning point in the US leadership role in global affairs was after it had won the Second World War and assumed the responsibility to protect western interests after the decline of European imperial powers.

Taking advantage of their ideal geographical location, American leaders pursued a gradualist approach in seeking a global power status. From a policy of isolation enshrined in Monroe doctrine of December 23, 1823 to winning the civil war of 1860s and the American-Spanish war of 1898, the US abandoned its policy of isolation by joining the First and the Second World War. The turning point in the US leadership role in global affairs was after it had won the Second World War and assumed the responsibility to protect western interests after the decline of European imperial powers. Paradoxically, the United States, which was the richest country of the world after World War Second and financed the historic Marshal Plan for reconstruction of war, devastated Europe in 1948 became the poorest country because of its surging debt of $32 trillion. Even then, at the non-state level, America is the richest country because of the accumulation of enormous wealth in the hands of several hundred billionaires; companies having assets of trillions of dollars and dollar as number one international currency.

The generation which planned and rendered sacrifices for transforming the United States from a weak state in 1776 to a major global power in 1945 is now replaced by a generation which lacks ownership and commitment to their country. As a result, Pax Americana, which replaced Pax Britannica during the 20^th century, is no more a reality because 21^st century is predicted to be Pax Asiana. Second, realistically speaking, despite the downhill trend of the US economy and it is declining leadership role in global affairs, it is argued that America will continue to influence the world in partnership with the West because of its technological superiority. Unlike the pre-Second World War situation when wars within the West led to the two world wars, after the Second World War, the West has not fought any war with each other. Resolution and management of conflicts, particularly between France and Germany in Europe and the role of the US under the auspices of NATO, tends to ensure Western supremacy in global affairs. Furthermore, Japan, despite being geographically located in Asia, is termed as a first world country having strong ties with the United States. In its essence, it is by default that America is playing a leadership role in global order by representing West and its allies in the developing world.

Following terrorist attacks in New York and Washington DC on September 11, 2001, which killed around 3,000 Americans, the US has managed to prevent a major terrorist attack on its soil. But, the price which it had to pay to counter terrorism is in the form of curtailing human rights and the vicious role of homeland security in apprehending those suspected to be involved in terrorism. Acts of harassment of the Muslim community and the detention of hundreds of Muslims in the notorious Guantanamo Bay prison badly eroded America’s image of the world. Even President Barack Obama during his eight years as American president failed to completely shut-down that prison because under the so-called counter terrorism strategy it was defended by the ultra-conservatives.

Perhaps, the worst phase in the recent American history shattering its image as a democracy got tarnished during the four-years term of former President Donald Trump. His tilt towards white supremacists and measures against Muslim immigrants badly damaged America’s image in global affairs. It was during the Trump era when serious efforts were made to cut America down to its size by offering an alternate world order under the leadership of Russia and China. The two giants of Asia made it clear that they would not allow American tutelage in global order any more. Even European allies of the US were antagonized because of Trump’s policies, which called for lowering the US financial contribution to NATO. The culture of populism, which is perceived to be anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant, further fragmented and polarized American society. Countless acts of lynching of Afro-Americans by the white American police galvanized hatred against the white dominated Trump administration, which significantly contributed to the defeat of Trump led Republican party in November 2020 elections.

Finally, how a country like Pakistan, which despite being the fifth most populated country in the world, will be impacted if the US led world order declines and new centers of power emerge in the coming years? The position taken by the then Prime Minister of Pakistan when Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24 antagonized the United States. America wanted Pakistan to condemn Russian attack and wanted its Prime Minister not to visit Moscow the day when Ukraine was attacked. Unfortunately, the failure of Pakistan to focus on its economy and seek political stability augmented its vulnerability because with a weak economy it had to make compromises on its sovereignty. Reaching out to International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a 23^rd time in the last 75 years of its history meant acquiescing to American pressure. It also means compromising on its sovereignty by agreeing to harsh conditions of Washington based IMF without realizing the fact that instead of seeking foreign aid, it should have focused on enhancing exports and pursuing a policy of self-reliance. Those at the helm of affairs plunged their country into deep economic crisis.

It would have been better for Pakistan to follow success stories of South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, China, India and the UAE in terms of their economic vibrancy. But, with tunnel vision and meager skills to pull Pakistan from deep economic and political crisis, they further deepened their country’s dependence on IMF, China and the West. In this scenario, alarmists argue that those having an age-old dream to neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal will take advantage of its economic fiasco and impose conditions which will compel Islamabad to slash its defense expenditures and allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor and control Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

Given Pakistan’s pressing economic and political condition, its role in global affairs and to deal with the transformation of world order is questionable. Huge power asymmetry between Pakistan and other players in global order, including India, is a major reality. Yet, if governing elites take cognizance of the situation and be mindful of their country’s fragile and failing status, one can expect some better role of Pakistan in the prevailing world order.

Certainly, history teaches us the lesson that no power can sustain its hold over power for long but in case of the United States it is a different story because it is not just America but the West whose survival is stake because of Sino-Russian nexus and the possible cleavage in the Atlantic Alliance.

To sum up, one can argue that in the year 2023 is critical both for Pakistan and the world order. During this year, Pakistan can further sink in the vicious cycle of economic and political crisis or a miracle can happen and pull the country from an impending disaster. It is yet to be seen if miracles take place in today’s world. As far as the world order is concerned, certainly history teaches us the lesson that no power can sustain its hold over power for long but in case of the United States it is a different story because it is not just America but the West whose survival is stake because of Sino-Russian nexus and the possible cleavage in the Atlantic Alliance. Certainly, there is no surety that the world will be better off if the world order transforms as a result of American decline or a multipolar world with responsible global actors will ensure peace and stability.