This article analyzes the unfolding events in the triangle of Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan and their impact on the control of the important ports on the One Road One Belt trade route. The article also discusses how the war is shifting from the Middle East to Asia.

Iran’s recent aggressive behavior has been linked to the domino effect that began after Hamas attacked Israel. This has had a ripple effect throughout the Middle East and is now spreading towards Asia. Iran, which had remained quiet for some time, has become increasingly active in recent days, launching attacks on Syria, Northern Iraq, and Pakistan.

The ultimate target of these actions is believed to be the One Road One Belt project. China’s One Road One Belt project is primarily based on Gwadar Port, which is located just 400 km from the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic location is crucial as approximately 40% of China’s imported oil is transported through this route.

Beijing focused its attention on the port of Gwadar as a hub for monitoring activities in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. It was also the center for organizing China’s relations with North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East.

Beijing was aiming to gain supremacy in the regional seas through the Gwadar Port.

This was very disturbing for the USA. Therefore, there had to be a border conflict between Iran, Pakistan, and India. In August, a Chinese convoy came under an armed attack on its way from Gwadar Airport to Gwadar Harbor.

China expressed its dissatisfaction and urged Pakistan to identify the attackers. This was perhaps one of the most important warnings to China for the One Road One Belt project. Iran was silent for a few weeks. Then Iran suddenly attacked Pakistan. Northern Iraq and Syria launched rocket attacks. Tension rose and the situation became chaotic. The war in the Middle East started to spread toward Asia.

Iran targeted the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl in Balochistan with rockets, claiming it was supported by the United States and Israel. Pakistan called the attack unacceptable. The targeting of the militant group Jaysh al-Adl by Iran in Balochistan is likely to escalate tensions in the region, leading to potential terrorist incidents shortly.

Parallel state structures inside Iran were used to take the war from the Middle East to Asia. Iran targeted the militant group Jaish al Adl in Balochistan with rockets. Pakistan described the attack as unacceptable. Iran, on the other hand, claimed that the Sunni militant group Jaish al Adl, which operates on the border with Pakistan, was supported by the US and Israel.

Iran’s targeting of the militant group Jaish al Adl in Balochistan with rockets indicates that tensions in the region will increase again in the future. Balochistan will be one of the regions where terrorist incidents will take place shortly. This armed organization was working together with another organization in Iran. They were targeting the One Belt One Road project. Pakistan was also discussing this with Iran. Some of the missiles fired by Iran fell within 50 kilometers of Gwadar Port.

The events here had to be read through the Gwadar Port, which is the important base of the One Belt One Road.

China was discussing this situation with Iran and Pakistan. China had big investments both in Iran and Pakistan. The strategic port of Gwadar is located in Balochistan, Pakistan, while the Chabahar port is located in the Sistan and Baluchistan provinces of Iran. It is considered one of the most strategically valuable bases in the world due to its location. Chabahar port in Iran holds significance for global trade.

This step altered the dynamics of the Middle East and, in conjunction with the BRICS membership of both countries, undermined US plans for the region. The reconciliation of Saudi Arabia and Iran also impacted the situation. India, a critical player in regional politics, supported Iran during this tension. The ongoing tension between India and Pakistan was also apparent. The BRICS members were unable to reach a consensus, posing a significant threat to China and Russia.

The significant military and security agreement between Russia and Iran has been finalized and awaits signature by the two heads of state. Additionally, the date for the upcoming elections in Pakistan has not yet been finalized, but they are expected to take place in January.

During the Davos summit, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Masrour Barzani and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani. Al Sudani may visit the US shortly. Additionally, the Chief of General Staff from Pakistan visited Washington. 

The reason behind the rocket attack on Peshraw Dizayee ‘s house in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, by Iran, remains unclear.

Dizayi is the founder and owner of Falcon Security Company, which provides security services to the Barzani family and trains the army. He is known for his involvement in significant projects such as oil, technology, and construction in Erbil. Additionally, Dizayi played a crucial role in China’s One Road One Belt project in Iraq.

Peshraw Dizayee met with businessman Kerem Mikhail at his home on the same day. Kerem Mikhail has important and influential connections, similar to Peshraw Dizayee. The conflict is beginning to shift from the Middle East to the Asia Pacific region. The first messages have been sent.