The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a multi-billion-dollar initiative, that aims to connect Pakistan and china through railways, highways, oil and gas pipelines, and optical fiber link all the way from Gwadar to Xinjiang. Balochistan is unique for Pakistan as well as for superpowers; the US, China, and India. They are very interested in Balochistan and CPEC hence the success of CPEC will determine Pakistan’s and Balochistan’s futures. As rival nations vie for its riches, Pakistan collaborates with China to develop Gwadar into an international trade center. China has emerged as a reliable strategic partner of Pakistan in the international arena.

Balochistan has the history of supporting Pakistan resolution 1940 which proposed the establishment of an independent nation for regions with a Muslim majority in the Indian subcontinent.

Balochistan is pinnacle of CPEC, a flagship initiative of BRI led by china. Balochistan is blessed with abundant potential to capitalize on its natural resources, blue economy, agriculture and livestock sectors building special economic zones SEZs under CPEC will pave the way for prosperity and regional connectivity. “You will encounter many distractions and many temptations to put your goal aside. But if you hang in there, always following your vision, I have no doubt you will succeed.”(Larry Flynt)

Balochistan has the history of supporting Pakistan resolution 1940 which proposed the establishment of an independent nation for regions with a Muslim majority in the Indian subcontinent. China Pakistan official diplomatic relations began in 1950 and were strengthened in the coming decades. The relations have been described by phrases like “iron bond”, “all-weather friendship”, “long-live Pakistan-china friendship”, and “deeper than oceans and higher than Himalayas”.

Since the launch of the development project, academics, foreign policy experts, analysts have been curious about the project as part of the initiative along the main road(OBOR) and CPEC in China. The basic aim is to look at ‘if’ and ‘how’ is the Baloch community of Balochistan province going to benefit from CPEC.

Chinese president Xi Jinping unveiled one of the world’s  largest investment project for regional connectivity and development historically. The initial amount of investment of this project was $46billion combining energy, network and information technology stretching from Gwadar to Kashagar in China. Gwadar holds the center position in Balochistan or as a ‘Koh-e-Noor’ in the crown which is CPEC. Tim Marshall correctly states that “There is no Pakistan without Balochistan” in his intriguing book “Prisoner of Geography.” In light of this fact, former Pakistani Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa asserts that Balochistan is necessary for Pakistan to be whole. Therefore, it needs to receive special consideration under CPEC.

The Balochistan coast is important for Pakistan as it has two naval Bases-Gwadar and Ormara. Gwadar port is located close to the strait of Hormuz- an entrance to Persian Gulf. Gwadar port works as a warehouse and industrial facility for more than twenty countries; it is around 725km to west of Karachi designed to enhance strategic defense of Pakistan.

It became functional in 2016 with annual capacity to handle 19 million tons of crude oil. China has invested $10.63 billion for construction of roads, railways and infrastructure in Pakistan. Both china and Pakistan claim CPEC to be game changer for regional development and connectivity. CPEC will open new corridors by inviting more FDI and resolving energy crisis.

Balochistan did not become a province until 1970 and is still struggling to gain provincial autonomy. 71% of Baloch population is living in multidimensional poverty with maternal death rate three times as much in other provinces and thousands of children out school with substandard education. The Human Development Index report of UNDP ranks Balochistan at the lowest of HDI among four provinces.

With regard to CPEC and influx of migrants from Afghanistan, Baloch are concerned that they will soon become a minority ethnic community within their own province. Most of the Baloch are uneducated and unskilled and will be unable to compete with the skilled labor and educated professionals from other provinces. Out of nine SEZs, one is being planned for Balochistan.

The job opportunities under CPEC are likely to hire skilled labors and professionals from the bigger provinces. It’s not difficult to understand that if gas, gold, coal and everything else that the Baloch have contributed over the years could not have helped them then how will a meagre share in the CPEC’s $600 million out of $46 billion bring miracles in the life of the Baloch?

The suspicion of Balochis stems primarily from the history of a perceived sense of exploitation of Baloch resources by the federal government and the Punjab

There is doubt among the Baloch leaders and people regarding China’s involvement in Balochistan through megaprojects such as Gwadar development port and Saindak copper mining project. False promises and non-inclusive development plans are not attractive anymore to Baloch people who have now access to information.

This suspicion stems primarily from the history of a perceived sense of exploitation of Baloch resources by the federal government and the Punjab. The former khan of Kalat, living in exile, Amir Ahmad Suleman Daud, affirms that the CPEC is a renewed effort of the federal government to dominate Balochistan. Dr Allah Nazar, leader of major separatist group, and currently the most active group member Balochistan Liberation Front, said in interview with The New Indian Express: “there is nothing for Baloch and Balochistan in it”.

Similarly, another separatist commander Harbiyar Marri, chief of Baloch Liberation Army said in an interview with a local Urdu newspaper, Azadi, in Quetta, in April 2015, that Pakistani security forces have increased military operation in Makran and Gwadar regions for paving the way to implement Pakistan- China economic projects. Former chief minister and National Party leader Dr Abdul Malik Baloch summed up nationalists’ concerns about CPEC in 5 points as following: “One is about Gwadar; it is feared it will affect Baloch identity and demographics.

Two, revenue from Gwadar will go where – to Balochistan or the Center? Three, jobs in Balochistan should first be given to Baloch people. Fourth, Gwadar’s port control should be given to Balochistan. And fifth, business be given to local people too”. According to Liaquat Shahwani, Baloch people should change their narrative and if Chinese could bring prosperity that would be well and good for Baloch people.

Balochistan has a long history of insurgency, with nationalist factions demanding greater autonomy and control over local resources. The existence of militant groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Liberation Front(BLF), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan(TTP), and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi(LEJ) are on a front line to hamper project pace with help of physical destruction and attack on Chinese labor force.

The involvement of Baloch militant organizations for achievement of their objectives such as separatism and demanding independent state are adding fuel to the dismal state. There is near consensus among Baloch separatists against China and CPEC. Most believe that the Gwadar port project is further undermining the Baloch people’s right of political and fiscal autonomy, which has been at the heart of Baloch nationalist-political and insurgent movements.

There are numerous concerns of people of Balochistan regarding CPEC projects. When the local people are not happy with construction, they could create hurdles in the execution of these projects.

The increased military presence at the port has raised concerns for Baloch people, who view it as an excuse to exert more control over the province.

The people of Balochistan anticipate that it may result in loss of distinct Baloch identity. Crucially, Baloch people view the CPEC initiative not as a chance for social and economic development, but a means of increased neglect and oppression. While the SEZs are incentivizing Chinese citizens to move to Gwadar with tax breaks, Baloch people are being forced out of the region. The increased military presence at the port has raised concerns for Baloch people, who view it as an excuse to exert more control over the province. Installation of military check posts along the Balochistan coastline directly affect the livelihood of local fisherman.

Another concern is regarding Balochistan share in CPEC which is 4.5% as revealed by chief minister of Balochistan. Furthermore, locals have concerns over employment opportunities for them. Moreover, Balochistan being a resource-rich land has large reservoirs of gas, copper, marble, that is beneficial for the entire country.

The Baloch termed this as their socio-economic deprivation, exploitation and their alienation (gas discovered from Sui in 1952 and was provided to other provinces since 1960s but not Balochistan. In fact, Hub was provided gas in 1990 when it became an industrial city; yet still many districts are deprived of their natural resources). Of course, people of Balochistan stand more, with the first right in business and employment opportunities. However, completion of Gwadar and implantation of CPEC would make Balochistan an economic hub and Pakistan in general would benefit from it.

It is feared that Balochistan will get nothing out of CPEC and Islamabad and Beijing will be the beneficiaries of CPEC.

CPEC is facing external and internal challenges in Pakistan. CPEC has started a domestic political pushback from smaller provinces calling for greater share in development initiatives. Political stakeholders in Balochistan view Punjab as the major beneficiary of this project. Some political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa called for prioritizing under-developed districts of KP and Balochistan for the CPEC route. To create economic opportunities, SEZs should be established in smaller provinces with priority given to Balochistan for being the most backward.

Another major challenge is the presence of insurgent groups in Balochistan. According to them, they will not allow Chinese companies to exploit their resources. They argue that Balochistan will get nothing out of CPEC and Islamabad and Beijing will be the beneficiaries of CPEC. External support to sabotage CPEC is also on top by India to destabilize development by financing insurgent groups in Sindh and Balochistan.

India has been very uncomfortable with any development that strengthens Pakistan economically, and CPEC is seen as a threat to its overarching ambition to dominate South Asia. India opposes BRI as a whole and undermines CPEC.

Balochistan is home to 1.5 million families and one job per family means we need 1.5 million jobs and CPEC is the best way to achieve that; with CPEC projects and SEZs involving development projects for agriculture, horticulture, fisheries and mineral resources this can be achieved in less than half a decade. Eventually CPEC will bear fruits for the people of Balochistan.]

The tribal system is a hindrance to the development and modernity of the project. No matter how small the share is, once systems and infrastructure become developed things will get better. Development doesn’t happen overnight but it takes a long time to bear fruits but this time we need to put in extra efforts for people of Balochistan.

CPEC is often dubbed as corridor of death and destruction by Baloch people because it benefits Pakistan and China but not Balochistan. The Baloch are not against the development but they oppose the exploitation of their resources by Pakistan and other superpowers.

We need to increase representation of Balochistan in the National Assembly to give voice to concerns of Baloch people

The Baloch people should be a stakeholder in the developments happening in Balochistan. For this we need to increase representation of Balochistan in the National Assembly to give voice to concerns of Baloch people; strengthening provincial autonomy is essential to excel in various fields of life by which they can improve their skills; fair distribution and equal access to resources is necessary, federal government must make sure that youth of Balochistan is getting jobs through CPEC; Efforts should be underway to eliminate Sardari System so that power is devolved to the locals.

As the former Senator and distinguished Baloch political Sana Ullah Baloch thinks that “the divide and rule policy is no more the solution. The government and the security forces should address the issues on genuine terms because if the Baloch conflict escalates it will create obstruction in the development of CPEC”. Balochistan and Gwadar are very crucial for CPEC because without Gwadar there is no CPEC. To make it a real game changer, we need to engage people with high stakes in it.

The government should train the locals through proper vocational training. Henry Kissinger once said, “Control oil and you control the nations; control food and you control the people”. If you are able to provide the Baloch with basic necessities of life in disguise of CPEC, then yes it does have a potential of being a game changer for the entire region. Comprehensive planning for smooth execution of CPEC projects is need of the hour to bring economic revolution in Balochistan and other provinces so the whole region will enjoy its fruits and CPEC is the right tool in this regard.

B The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.