In nuclear strategy, the state assured ability to answer to a nuclear strike with powerful retaliation against the striker is known as the second strike capability. The main focus of second strike capability is to deter the foe from endeavoring a first strike. In the contemporary world order, nuclear submarine is considered as the most authentic source of assured second strike capability.
Pakistan shares contentious history with India since its independence, therefore, all the competence of Pakistan is intended for India. Since the emergence of nuclear weapons in South Asia, both states, Pakistan and India have indulged in nuclear arms race which led them to acquire second strike capability. In addition, India successfully tested the INS-Arihant and INS Arighaat SSBN (nuclear ballistic missile submarine) equipped with K-15 or K-4 missiles through which India has established its sea-based second strike capability. Therefore, it is considered as an imminent threat for Pakistan’s National security.
To respond to these kinds of evolving threats, Pakistan conducted SLCM (submarine launched cruise missiles like Babur-3 range of about 450km approximately. Furthermore, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) claimed that with the test of Babur 3 Pakistan has acquired credible second strike capability to safeguard regional stability or stop India from growing as a South Asian hegemon. Now here the question arises as to whether Pakistan has acquired the assured second strike capability or is it only a showcase?
Additionally, some field expert analysts debate that, these launchpads are Agosta class diesel-power submarines which are less capable than nuclear-power submarine (SSBN).The key difference among them is that diesel-power submarine can stay undersea for few days and hours. While nuclear-powered submarine could remain in the sea for months. Diesel-powered submarine make more noise and are considered easily detectable by the foe as compared to SSBN which are mainly quiet.
Another factor that can lower Pakistan’s second strike capability is India’s growing anti-submarines warfare (ASW) capability
Another factor that can lower Pakistan second strike capability is India’s growing anti-submarines warfare (ASW) capability. Using US-based sophisticated weapons like P81 Neptune anti-submarine aircraft carrying modern technology and radar systems. If India’s symbol of aggression used these against Pakistan’s submarines, it can boost the chance of being spotted. India’s plans to commission INS Aridhaman by 2025 coupled with the advanced technology like MIRV-equipped Agni-5 and larger SSBNs. These steps would further enhance India’s deterrence and power projection in South Asia. Particularly, in case of South Asia, India is considered as a dominant state in terms of the conventional weapons, that ultimately create threats for its rival.
In case of Pakistan, it cannot match the capability of India in terms of conventional arms and equipment, but it can deter India with the threat of “first use policy” of nuclear weapons
In case of Pakistan, it cannot match the capability of India in terms of conventional arms and equipment, but it can deter India with the threat of “first use policy” of nuclear weapons to overcome the asymmetry. Since India’s exceptional actions for induction of modernization and enhancing its navy capabilities has reduced its mutual collateral damage ability.
In contemporary times, Pakistan is fostering its endeavor in the domain of both land and air-based deterrence. For example, the acquisition of J-10c and JF-17, enhance the South Asia deterrence regionally for Pakistan in the Air power domain. The foundation for J-31(a stealth fighter jet ) has already been laid with strategic partner China to make the deterrence capable and credible.
Furthermore, Pakistan also enhanced its land-based deterrence by integration of Fatah- 2 and in future by getting Fatah- 3, in order to counter the cold start doctrine of India. But in case of sea-based deterrence, Pakistan only acquired the Babur-3 SLCM(submarine launched cruise missile),that makes the deterrence less credible as compare to India. However, Pakistan has recently taken significant steps to foster its naval capabilities by acquiring the First Hangor-class Submarine from China. Under this agreement , Pakistan signed for Eight submarines , four of which are to be built in China and rest of the four at the Karachi shipyard. These submarine have enhanced the capability of undersea endurance for at least 10 to 14 days, so now this capability is better than the typical 48hours endurance of conventional diesel-powered submarines. Therefore, it is evident that Pakistan is taking pivotal actions in order to make the undersea deterrence more credible and assured.
In a nutshell, Pakistan has to take sophisticated steps to build SLBM ( Submarine launched Ballistic missiles) by acquiring the SSBN (Nuclear Submarine ) with potential support from China to counter India’s growing strategic advantage and make South Asia region stable. By acquiring credible deterrence, asymmetry among the two rival state’s Pakistan and India could be balanced. Additionally, the development of assured second strike capability by Pakistan is crucial for ensuring credible deterrence and regional stability.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
