In the aftermath of Pakistan’s airstrikes on December 24 in the Birmal district of Afghanistan’s Paktika province, a multitude of adverse reactions can be observed on social media. The Taliban’s Foreign Minister Muttaqi’s meeting with the Indian Foreign Secretary in Dubai, alongside Pakistan’s alleged occupancy of the Wakhan Corridor, has sparked sensational interpretations, ranging from perceptions of an India-Taliban alliance to fears of escalating tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban across the border.

Cross-border tensions threaten the livelihoods of tribes reliant on trade and socio-cultural interactions along the Pak-Afghan border.

Beyond the border tensions, the primary battleground is social media. Past mindsets are deeply ingrained in the Afghan people’s psyche. Whenever Afghan leaders, including kings or prime ministers in Kabul, praised Pakistan, the common man echoed these sentiments. However, anti-Pakistan feelings in Afghanistan can flare up instantly whenever an incident occurs between the two nations. Indian social media often amplifies this media hype.

Rhetoric aside, significant issues affect people’s lives on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. There is a noticeable difference between the two countries: While Pakistan faced problems, it remained stable, but Afghanistan has endured 45 years of death and destruction at the hands of its leaders. Over 9 million Afghans are refugees in eighty countries, while the nation ranks at the bottom of the human development index.

Since the Taliban came to power in August 2021, there has been a respite from daily violence, mainly because the religious militia no longer engages in combat with American-led coalition forces, and civilians are less likely to be caught in the crossfire. The Taliban’s rise entails a stark reality: as a militant, one has little to no responsibility or accountability, unlike when governing a nation and bearing the burden for the lives and freedoms of its people. This dichotomy extends to diplomatic relations.

Pakistan is often “credited” with mentoring the Taliban; however, this narrative has been self-serving and has generated ridicule in light of recent events, such as the Taliban’s support for the TTP and Pakistan’s airstrikes. The challenges of governance and capability are evident under Taliban rule.

Attacks by the TTP on Pakistan’s border posts, supported by Taliban authorities, have become a significant point of contention. The Taliban’s archaic ideological foundations have created dissent among the Pakistani populace, and the increase in TTP attacks, whether through the Taliban’s connivance or indifference, has fostered aversion toward the Taliban regime.

The Taliban’s ambiguous stance on the TTP raises questions about their intentions and capacity to manage regional security.

Are the Taliban truly uninterested in controlling the TTP? This valid question is now being posed even by religious individuals in Pakistan. Is it a matter of capacity, or does the Taliban seek “strategic depth” in Pakistan through the TTP? A mixed picture emerges when examining the Taliban’s handling of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.

The following factors deserve attention when discussing the complexities of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:

1. Real Problems Ignored: There are tangible issues affecting the people of both countries that are often overlooked or delayed due to official indifference. For instance, 17-18 tribes inhabit the Pak-Afghan border, relying on cross-border trade and socio-cultural interactions. These tribesmen have little interest in diplomatic relations and are primarily concerned with daily survival. Tensions at the border threaten their livelihoods.
2. Travel Document Challenges: The abolition of the Tazkira system, allowing nationals to travel between the two countries, and the introduction of a passport regime from Pakistan have faced resistance from the Afghan side, supported by Pakistani tribesmen. Afghan Interim Government officials are reluctant to adhere to international norms or educate their populace about this new system. While Pakistani authorities expect Afghan officials to behave as a sovereign state, the latter insist on “uninterrupted” access to Pakistan, a matter further complicated by TTP’s frequent attacks on border posts. The Taliban maintain that the Tazkira system has been in effect for decades, but Pakistan has imposed restrictions since their rise to power.
3. Deportation Issues: The deportation of undocumented Afghans has emerged as a major irritant between the two countries. Since October 2023, the Pakistani government has launched a campaign against illegal Afghan residents. By mid-last year, over six hundred thousand Afghans had left Pakistan, only to return due to officials’ “special considerations.” Surprisingly, two-thirds of those deported have since come back. One wonders how such a large number could cross the border without valid documentation. This points to negligence by law enforcement agencies at the village level or perhaps collusion that allowed these individuals to live undetected for years.
4. Trade and Smuggling Challenges: Trade remains a stumbling block in bilateral relations, particularly transit trade. Pakistan argues that Afghan traders exploit the transit trade facility for smuggling, resulting in significant revenue losses. However, arguments within Pakistan highlight that the root of the issue lies in the negligence of law enforcement agencies, especially Customs, in controlling smuggling. It is also argued that major businessmen in Karachi create demand for smuggled goods while Afghan traders serve merely as carriers. The lack of vigilance in cities and towns to confiscate smuggled items, a practice once commonplace, exacerbates the issue.

While these factors warrant attention, the erosion of state authority over the past 45 years—following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan—has wreaked havoc on the rule of law. The Pak-Afghan border became a passageway as Afghan Mujahideen and their families flocked to Pakistan, leading to an influx of firearms, drugs, and other illicit goods.

Trade and smuggling issues are exacerbated by inadequate law enforcement and systemic corruption on both sides of the border.

The unrestricted movement of Afghan refugees, particularly Mujahideen cadres, further complicated matters. The country’s struggles were compounded by official corruption that allowed free access to Mujahideen factions and unauthorized businesses, turning it into a hub of extensive smuggling activity, a trend that persists today.

Over the past four decades, the borders of Pakistan with Afghanistan and Iran have been managed with a lack of seriousness. Several factors contribute to this negligence: first, the absence of substantial economic activity in border regions forces local populations to rely on smuggling for survival. Second, since the Soviet invasion, the border region has become entwined in a war economy, leading to a culture that deals in merchandise with cross-border demand, enriching both smugglers and corrupt border officials.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.