The growing Russia-China partnership is a significant development with profound geopolitical implications. This convergence reflects historical solidarity and a practical recalibration of issues against global geopolitical rivalry and escalating competitiveness with the West.

The mutual political trust between the leaders of China and Russia is the foundation of their alliance. Both countries’ increasing emphasis on their bilateral relationship is demonstrated by Vladimir Putin’s visit to China in May 2024 with a sizable entourage and Xi Jinping’s state visit to Russia for the BRICS Summit in Kazan in October 2024.

China and Russia’s bilateral trade reached $202.21 billion in 2024 despite over 19,535 Western sanctions on Russia.

The May 2024 joint statement with a comprehensive official document, underscored a shared vision for global multipolarity and strategic alignment in key regions, including Central Asia and the Tumen River Delta. Due to the geopolitical skepticism of its neighbors, the Delta, a nexus region that borders China, Russia, and North Korea, has long remained undeveloped. Their regular meetings and in-depth intergovernmental discussions indicate a conscious attempt to strengthen their partnership in the face of growing Western resistance.

Vigorous Trade Relations Amid Western Sanctions

China has become Russia’s economic lifeline, and the two states have maintained strong trading connections even though as of August 2024, Russia was subject to more than 19,535 sanctions. In the first 10 months of 2024, bilateral trade between the two countries totaled $202.21 billion, despite Western sanctions, especially those related to banking and finance.

With the trade value expected to stay between $220 and 240 billion for the entire year, almost the same amount as in 2023, this represents a 2.8% year-over-year rise. China now supplies 30% of Russia’s exports and 41% of its imports, demonstrating the country’s growing economic dependency. Nearly 60% of Russia’s automobile market and 90% of its smartphone imports are from Chinese enterprises, which cover the voids left by Western businesses.

Technology and Security Nexus

Cooperation in technology has become a vital area of synergy outside of trade. Russia still supplies China with cutting-edge technology that is essential to its strategic objectives, such as space exploration and nuclear energy programs. The long-term goals include the plans for a cooperative nuclear-powered lunar base by 2035. This partnership also involves defense technologies, as Russia provides China with knowledge of satellite navigation and ballistic missile defense, strengthening China’s strategic independence as a response to the US limits on technology transfers.

Joint military drills highlight strategic alignment, countering NATO’s East Asia expansion and US influence in the Asia-Pacific.

China and Russia’s military cooperation has also increased, as seen by their regular joint drills that show their strategic alignment. The two sides held a series of high-profile combined military exercises in 2024. Their potential to test Western alliances was demonstrated by operations like the 8th Joint Strategic Air Patrol in Alaska, naval exercises in the South China Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Gulf of Finland, as well as a trilateral naval exercise with Iran in the Gulf of Oman. By strengthening mutual defense readiness and demonstrating a unified front against perceived threats, such as US initiatives in the Asia-Pacific and NATO’s East Asia expansion, these actions accomplish two goals.

Enhancing Diplomatic Ties

The geopolitical impact of the bilateral China-Russia partnership is an exchange of favors in multiple domains.  China conducted three rounds of shuttle diplomacy in March, May and July 2024, visiting the Ukraine conflict’s direct stakeholders and major Global South countries. In May, China and Brazil jointly launched a Six-Point Consensus that has been welcomed by over 110 countries, including the first Ukraine Peace Summit host Switzerland. Meanwhile, Russia explicitly supported China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and Taiwan, underscoring their reciprocal alignment on sensitive geopolitical issues. This cooperation highlights their shared objective to resist US influence in their respective regions.

Russia supports China’s claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea, while China backs Russia on Ukraine-related diplomacy.

China and Russia’s alliance has shaped international multilateral organizations, pushing for changes to lessen Western hegemony in world politics. They aim to promote a different global economic order by broadening BRICS and combining the Belt and Road Initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union. However, the alliance faces challenges due to Beijing’s Central Asian influence and Russia’s economic dependence.

One example of Beijing’s strategic calculation to secure alternate trade routes is the construction of infrastructure projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which avoids Russia. Moscow must balance these changes with its historical position as the leading power in Eurasia, even though it gains from them.

Foreseeing: The China-Russia Partnership in 2025

Based on the 2024 China-Russia alliance, which exchanges reciprocal advantages, common strategic objectives, and strong political confidence, it has grown to be a framework of multipolar order. This trend is unlikely to change considering the current state of the world. However, maintaining this collaboration will necessitate carefully managing external pressures and inequalities.

Analytically, given anticipating Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 and his hallmark America First policies of protectionism, and transactional diplomacy, structural factors propelled by China and Russia will further reveal the future geopolitical orientations. Brazil and South Africa will host the BRICS and G20 summits, respectively, while China will host important international events like the SCO Summit.

The partnership seeks to reform the global economic order through BRICS expansion and the synergy of BRI and the Eurasian Economic Union.

There will be more engagement with Russia. When taken as a whole, these occasions will demonstrate a dedication to multilateralism, as opposed to the possible dysfunction of US-led alliances and the G7 process. This China-Russia bilateral assessment presents geopolitical realignment and continuity in shifting the global political order, legitimizing their domestic policies, and defending their positions on international matters.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.