The Middle East has great historical importance and religious reverence for all Abrahamic followers; however, the region has not seen a lasting peace in the last century. Due to its immense strategic importance in military, economic, and political spheres, it has become the geopolitical pivot of the world. Its regional security dynamics make a significant impact on all great and regional powers. Pakistan due to its heavy reliance on energy resources, foreign remittances, and financial support from the Arab Gulf States, is always dependent on the Middle East.

Pakistan has a sentimental affiliation with the Palestinian cause, rooted in its anti-colonial struggle.

Likewise, given Pakistan’s military prowess and unprecedented support in the socioeconomic development of the region, the Arab States are equally dependent on Pakistan. Thus, close geopolitical proximity and mutual interdependence always keep Pakistan involved in the regional security dynamics.

In the wake of the Israeli genocide of Palestinians, heightened tension between Iran and Israel, and prospects of a wider regional war, Pakistan is strategically poised to be affected by the changing security dynamics of the Middle East. Therefore, this essay highlights the contemporary security environment of the Middle East with future trends and the involvement of Pakistan.

GEO-POLITICS SIGNIFICANCE OF THE MIDDLE EAST

Middle East is a geo-politically unique region that has three sub-regions; each having its own internal security complex and affecting and being affected by the wider regional security environment. The Persian/Arab Gulf region consists of the GCC States (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE), Iraq and Iran. Security issues dominating in this sub-region are, energy politics, competition/rivalry between Iran and the Arabs, and among the Arabs, besides heavy military/naval presence of the United States.

The other sub-region is the Levant/Fertile Crescent having Palestine/Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt. This area is dominated by the Palestine issue, Arab-Israel conflicts, and proxy wars. The third sub-region is Maghrib/North Africa having Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and Libya. This region is embroiled in its security issues mainly the Darfur conflict, dispute over western Sahara, and the Libyan civil war.

The Saudi-Iran rivalry has long shaped Pakistan’s geopolitical balancing act due to its economic and geographical realities.

As the global power rivalry has shifted from Europe to Asia, particularly in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, the Middle East has become the global geopolitical pivot. It has immense energy resources and strategic choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, 80% of the global trade passes through the Middle Eastern Sea Line of Communications (SLOCs).

The Arab-Israel wars (1948, 1956, 1973), Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), Kuwait Crisis (1990-91), Iraqi Invasion (2003), and internal wars in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen have made the Middle East as one of the most militarized regions with ever-increasing conflicts. The October 2003 Hams-Israel war, the Israeli genocide in Gaza, the heightened tension between Israel and Iran, and prospects of a wider regional war are worrisome security issues detrimental to regional peace and stability, and their wider implications to other areas/states, especially Pakistan.

MIDDLE EAST SECURITY AND PAKISTAN

Pakistan has remained involved in the Middle Eastern security dynamics due to geographical proximity, historical bonds, religious commonality, politico-military cooperation, socioeconomic dependence, and energy requirements.

From political issues to financial dependence, Pakistan has always looked towards the region and vice versa. Following are some of the crucial political and security issues that affect Pakistan.

The Palestine Issue

This is the core problem that started as a Palestine-Jewish issue but expanded into an Arab-Israeli conflict. The idea of a Jewish state (1894), the Balfour Declaration (1917), the British Mandate (1916-1948), Jewish migration (1917-1948), and the neo-colonist approach of the Zionists made the Palestinians homeless in their homeland.

For the last one hundred years, Palestinians have been suffering at the hands of Zionist zealots the latest being the Palestinian genocide since October 2023. Israeli continued occupation of Arab lands, refusal to accept the ‘two state’ solution, and ignoring the global outcry of the public against the Palestinian massacre, are further fueling the fire.

Pakistan has a sentimental affiliation with the Palestinian cause, as the Muslims of the Subcontinent struggled and sacrificed for their independent homeland from the imperial British occupation. The Muslim leaders, especially Muhammad Ali Jinnah, were very supportive of the Palestine issue. His statements through the All-India Muslim League manifest the political support of the Indian Muslims towards the Palestinian struggle.

The Middle East remains a geopolitical pivot, influencing global military, political, and economic systems.

Subsequently, all successive governments in Pakistan have supported the Palestinians’ right to self-determination and its resolution through a ‘two state’ solution. Since October 2023, Pakistani people, government, and all other institutions have vehemently voiced the Palestinian cause, as the parliament passed unanimous resolutions showing its unflinching support for Palestine.

In 2024, Pakistan forcefully fought the case of Palestine in the United Nations Security Council, which was appreciated by Palestine and the Arab States. Pakistan wants an early end to the issue culminating in an independent and sovereign Palestinian state.

Regional Wars  

Pakistan has been an important Muslim state and the Arabs always looked to it for military cooperation and support. From limited participation to military cooperation and strict neutrality, Pakistan remained involved in the regional wars. Pakistan got involved in a limited manner during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars. Since 1980, Pakistani troops are deployed in Saudi Arabia and it has military cooperation with many Arab States.

Pakistan also trained or raised the military and air force of many Arab States. It sent limited troops during the Kuwait Crisis (1990-91) as part of the International Coalition Force. However, Pakistan showed strict neutrality during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) but continued to provide food supplies and essential items to both sides. During the Yemen Civil War (2015), Pakistan was asked to provide military force but the Pakistani parliament refused to get involved in intra-Arab conflicts.

During the Iran-Israel military strikes (April 2024), Pakistan supported the Iranian right to defend its national security. Therefore, Pakistan aspires for the Middle East to be a conflict-free region that provides peace dividends to the adjoining regions/states, including Pakistan.

Saudi-Iran Rivalry 

The Arab-Persian rivalry has historical and religious roots that intensified during the Muslim rule in the Arab world; especially the battle of Qadisiya (636AD) between the Arabs and Persian Sasanian Empire. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran were part of the US ‘Twin Pillar’ policy in the Gulf region but since the Islamic Revolution (1979), the politico-ideological rivalry between the two has been rekindled.

The subsequent regional competition resulted in proxy wars in many states including Pakistan. The entire decades of the 1980s and 1990s saw Pakistan as a battleground of KSA-Iran rivalry, and the country suffered heavily in socio-political fragmentation and sectarian violence.

Pakistan has tried hard to balance its relations with the two regional rivals. Iran is a geopolitical compulsion having a long 909 kilometers common border with trade and supply of electricity; whereas, KSA is a geo-economic reality with around 4 million Pakistanis working in the Gulf region contributing much needed $10-12 billion remittances, besides oil supplies on deferred payments and loan guarantees.

Both KSA and Iran want to develop oil refineries in Balochistan with investments; Iran wants to enhance regional trade and connectivity and increase the electricity supply manifold. The Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline project that can meet 35% of Pakistan’s energy needs still hangs in balance. Therefore, the KSA-Iran rivalry has compromised many of Pakistan’s national security interests such as Afghanistan, counter-terrorism, internal security, and socio-economic development.

Importantly, the Saudi-Iran peace agreement brokered by China (2023) is a welcome development that can see lesser tension/competition and much-needed respite for regional peace and stability. Pakistan can also benefit from this peace agreement by safeguarding its national security interests without jeopardizing relations with KSA and Iran; however, Pakistan would remain vulnerable to the Saudi-Iran rivalry and competition in the Middle East and beyond.

Partners In Peace And Development

Pakistan using its diplomatic/political clout, has been instrumental in promoting regional peace and reconciliation among various Middle Eastern states. Pakistan was chosen to head the Ummah Peace Mission to end the war between Iran and Iraq; Pakistan hosted the extraordinary OIC Summit in Islamabad (1997) and helped ease tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan played a key role in rejuvenating the OIC after the 9/11 terrorist attacks being labeled as ‘Islamic Terrorism.’ Likewise, Pakistan played the initial part in rolling the Saudi-Iran Peace Agreement brokered by China. Pakistan supports all political and diplomatic efforts of the OIC and Arab League in promoting regional peace and stability. Pakistan’s election as the non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (2025-26) would provide further avenues to play its role as a partner in peace for the region.

Pakistan’s role in the socioeconomic development of the Gulf has cemented a deep interdependence.

Previously, Pakistan had played a key role in transforming the Arab Gulf States into an ultra-modern hub of socio-economic and financial activities. Since the oil boom of 1973-74 and petro-dollar savings, Pakistan devoted the entire 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s to developing infrastructure, highways, aviation industry, transport system, banking, and education system of the entire Arab Gulf States to make it the ‘Jewel of the East.’

Conversely, Pakistan also benefited tremendously in the socio-economic uplift and emancipation of the masses. Therefore, Pakistan fully supports the Vision 2030 of Prince Mohammed bin Salman to transform Saudi Arabia into a modern, progressive, and vibrant state. His NEOM project to develop a modern and state-of-the-art city is an extraordinary visionary concept where every state is willing to get involved. Pakistan is also keen to utilize its technical/technological expertise and get mutual benefits from this massive project, and once again play its due role in the socio-economic development of the region.

FUTURE SECURITY TRENDS

Pakistan cannot divorce itself from the security dynamics of the region as these affect it directly in terms of heightened tension, disruption of oil supplies and well-being of Pakistani working in the Gulf region. Therefore, future regional security trends are detrimental to Pakistani security.

Pakistan wants an early end to the Israeli genocide in Gaza and supports every effort for a permanent ceasefire there. Being a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (2025-26), Pakistan would like to play its due role in brokering a lasting ceasefire and ultimately the resolution of the Palestinian issue into an independent and sovereign state.

However, two crucial security trends are paramount to regional peace and stability; 1) the possible Iranian retaliation of the assassination of Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, by Israel in Tehran; 2) the dangerous prospects of a regional war involving regional and extra-regional forces. There is a great danger of such an eventuality that would engulf the entire region and beyond.

The planning for the coordinated attack against Israel is already in the offing; the ‘Axis of Resistance’ comprised of Iran, Syria, Hamas, Houthis of Yemen, and Hezbollah of Lebanon are contemplating collaborated attacks. Importantly, the new hardline Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, has written a letter to the Hezbollah Chief, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, thanking and praising his group’s unflinching support in the conflict with Israel (Reuters, September 13, 2024).

A regional war in the Middle East could have devastating impacts on Pakistan’s already fragile economy.

A regional war in the Middle East would be a dreadful escalation, which would enflame the entire region. Already the war in Ukraine heightened tension in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula, which is greatly affecting the global economy and trade. The transformation of global security/political/financial order are nightmare for the weak economies.

Therefore, for Pakistan, disruption of oil supplies and halting of trade would be a severe blow to its already fragile economy. Moreover, Pakistan may not remain aloof from a wider regional war, there would be intense pressure for its active/limited involvement that could be detrimental to its own national security.

On the other side, China has emerged as a new, reliable, and honest power broker in the Middle East; Pakistan being a close strategic partner of China can benefit from its regional involvement. The Saudi-Iran Peace Agreement (2023) and the Sino-Iran Trade Agreement (2020) of $400 billion provide bright chances for Pakistan in trade, investment, and regional connectivity.

CONCLUSION

Throughout the history of the Middle East, Pakistan has remained as an important player in the regional security dynamics either affecting or being affected. Regional peace and stability are of crucial importance for Pakistan’s security interests, and the ever-changing regional security dynamics of the Middle East are compulsively involving Pakistan to the detriment of its national security.

However, Pakistan cannot remain aloof/divorced from the Middle Eastern security issues; therefore, while being involved, Pakistan must safeguard its national security interests and harness the opportunities, and avoid unnecessary complicity.