On the 7^th of May 2025, New Delhi launched a series of missile and air strike attacks against the innocent Pakistani civilians during the mid of night. The targeted sites included Azad Kashmir and Punjab with the following key centers; Ahmedpur Sharkia near Bahawalpur, Muridke, Shakargarh in Punjab and a village near Sialkot, and Muzaffarabad and Kotli in Azad Kashmir.

This attack was initiated by the fascist and extremist Hindutva driven Modi-led government whose main aim is to promote Islamophobia

This attack was initiated by the fascist and extremist Hindutva driven Modi-led government whose main aim is to promote Islamophobia and remove the Muslims from the face of the Earth. In response to this, Pakistan Air Force shot down five Indian jets including three Rafale Jets, one MiG-29, and one SU-30, becoming the first nation-state to successfully shoot down the Rafale Jets and leading no one to question its sovereignty. Pakistan’s measured response reflects a doctrine of calibrated deterrence, emphasizing strategic maturity over impulsive retaliation.

Calibrated deterrence ‘involves taming the deterrence posture in order to maintain a status quo of low tension’.  In the context of Pakistan’s strategic thinking, calibrated deterrence draws upon the established concepts of deterrence theory, escalation control and the concepts of limited war along with their modification to the geopolitical realities present in South Asia.

Firstly, in the context of Pakistan, this model intends to prevent the outbreak of a large scale conflict with India, recognizing the inherent risks and potential for escalation. Secondly, this model seeks to provide a perceived response to India’s aggression demonstrating that the sovereignty of Pakistan is a non-negotiable factor. Third, the model is designed to contribute to the overall strategic stability of South Asian region preventing uncontrolled conflict and fourth, the model fundamentally focuses on safeguarding Pakistan’s territorial integrity and protecting its core national interests. This ultimately shows that Pakistan’s nuclear policy and deterrence posture is defensive and India specific demonstrating the risks that India as a neighbor with intense hegemonic designs poses.

In 2019, the Balakot crises, arguably the most perilous nuclear crisis since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, emerged from the backdrop of escalating tensions following a suicide bombing on Pulwama on the 14^th of February 2019

In 2019, the Balakot crises, arguably the most perilous nuclear crisis since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, emerged from the backdrop of escalating tensions following a suicide bombing on Pulwama on the 14^th of February 2019. This attack that the Indian government blamed on Pakistan had no proof or evidence whatsoever just like the recent Pahalgam attack. Similarly, two weeks have passed by but the Indian Modi-led government has once again failed to provide any logical proof and evidence of Pakistan behind the attack. Yet, in response to it, India launched an airstrike on February 26, 2019, targeting what it described as a JeM training camp located in Balakot within Pakistan’s KPK province.

The Indian government intended to target the civilian population inside of Pakistan just like it did recently in Sialkot, Muridke, Muzaffarabad, Shakargarh, Bahawalpur and even initiated airstrikes in Rawalpindi and Lahore on the 8^th of May

The Indian government intended to target the civilian population inside of Pakistan just like it did recently in Sialkot, Muridke, Muzaffarabad, Shakargarh and Bahawalpur and even initiated airstrikes in Rawalpindi and Lahore on the 8^th of May. However, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) intercepted the Indian aircraft in Balakot and in the aftermath of this Indian airstrike, PAF launched its Operation Swift Retort, during which PAF engaged in aircraft with Indian Air Force (IAF) and successfully launched down two Indian fighter jets, a MiG-21 Bison and a Su-30 MKI and captured one of the pilots Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman. As was stated, “The tea was fantastic”, the Pakistani forces showed a clear illustration of their calibrated deterrence during this attack.

DG ISPR, Lieutenant General, Ahmed Sharif Chaudhary, stated that this “Cowardly and shameful attack by the Indians would be met with a befitting reply and the choice of place and time for it will be at the discretion of Pakistan”

Recently, in response to the Operation Sindoor by the Indian government on the 7^th of May, Pakistan launched Operation Swift Retort 2.0 restating our calibrated deterrence. DG ISPR, Lieutenant General, Ahmed Sharif Chaudhary, stated that this “Cowardly and shameful attack by the Indians would be met with a befitting reply and the choice of place and time for it will be at the discretion of Pakistan”. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also condemned this aggression stating that “Pakistan reserves all rights to respond forcefully.”

This strategic response model of Pakistan is based on certain fundamental pillars like conventional response capabilities as demonstrated by Pakistan’s armed forces, a highly capable airforce at the forefront, and a strong navy that remains an integral part of Pakistan’s overall deterrence strategy. Secondly, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine often described as “Full Spectrum Minimum Credible Deterrence” along with its declared policy of “Quid Pro Quo Plus” includes the explicit use of nuclear weapons in response to an Indian attack especially if its territorial integrity or sovereignty feels threatened. It is crucial in signaling Pakistan’s determination to not only match but potentially exceed India’s level of military engagement. Third, this strategy focuses on the role of narratives to boost the overall morale and strength of both Pakistan’s local population and its forces who are going to defend the state.

Should India escalate beyond such actions, Pakistan should go with diplomacy during which Islamabad can convey its red lines along with adherence to international law

This is crucial to build resilience, encouragement and strength in the face of adversary. Finally, this calibrated deterrence model is proposed to design a multitude of strategies in response to various scenarios of Indian attack. These scenarios by India can include surgical strikes and air raids like the Balakot air strike or more substantial conventional operations like in India’s cold start doctrine. In response to surgical strikes, Pakistani forces particularly the PAF is required to provide an initial response like in the Balakot incident and the recent response given to the Operation Sindoor. Should India escalate beyond such actions, Pakistan should go with diplomacy during which Islamabad can convey its red lines along with adherence to international law.

The recent attacks by the Indian government are a blatant violation of international law and state sovereignty

In conclusion, the recent attacks by the Indian government are a blatant violation of international law and state sovereignty and Pakistan’s model of calibrated deterrence blended defensive readiness, precision counter strikes, and robust diplomatic messaging stating that we will not compromise on the safety and sovereignty of our state. It is best if the Indian government soon understands this to prevent full scale escalation in the already fragile South Asian environment.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.