The book “Arms control at Crossroads: renewal or demise” has been edited by Jeffery A. Larsen and Shane Smith. The book presents 16 analyses by respected experts who probe the editors’ view which discuss the role of arms control in the previous ages as well as in the recent era. The authors argued about the renewal and demise of arms control in the recent age as they raised the question “Is arms control dead?” they argued to find the answer. According to them “formal treaty-based arms control is likely coming to an end but the need to prevent nuclear war will remain”.
The authors argued about the importance of arms control in the recent age and claim that “arms control over the next generation will look different than it has over the past half-century”.
According to the editors, they want to introduce the new generation to the theories of arms control, its past values, norms, and culture. They also want to shed light on the importance of arms control in recent ages. For this purpose, they have provided a collection of such prestigious chapters that are helpful in understanding the traditional norms and culture of arms control.
The book poses the critical question: “Is arms control dead?” while arguing that its future will differ significantly from the past.
The book also defines what arms control is and its relationship with the concept of cooperative security. They explain it in a way that increases curiosity in the mind of a reader. The reader feels satisfied with the answers that arise in one’s mind as the book is well in maintains the sequence initially, the editors have tried to make the new reader familiar with the idea of what is arms control and what is its importance in the whole scale of national and international security.
They also elaborate on the concept of disarmament and its failure in controlling the arms race in the Cold War era which ultimately led to the approach of arms control in the 1960s as a more realistic approach to security. Disarmament has been redefined as an approach to the theme of a world without nuclear arms. According to the editors, this has become clear that a full-scale disarmament of nuclear weapons is not possible, and it now has become a reality in the international system. So, disarmament now focuses on controlling nuclear weapons and bounding their use.
In this book, it has been argued that the world community is required to shift traditional approaches to arms control such as arms control treaties and negotiations to nuclear risk reduction, crisis management, data exchanges, confidence and security-building measures, and stability dialogues. Furthermore, to make these approaches successful, it is necessary, that Russia should be treated as a normal power and that China may be adjusted in international order according to its economic and military strength.
It also argues that for achieving strategic stability, arms control approaches can be used in various ways such as establishing a collaborative security framework and establishing people-to-people contact. This book also discusses that arms control measures and treaties have achieved a lot in the past but in the recent age, so many new technologies are emerging, that may have a destabilizing effect on strategic stability.
States are required to focus and keep certain limits on such technologies including cyber and space-based assets. This book also explains the policies of great powers on arms control. It states that for many years, the United States has successfully achieved its security objectives by negotiating different measures and agreements relating to arms control and succeeded in strengthening deterrence. But in the contemporary strategic landscape, the United States domestic politics is divided, and there is no proper consensus among the elites for achieving security by arms control.
Editors emphasize that formal treaty-based arms control is likely coming to an end, but the necessity to prevent nuclear war persists.
The United States and Russia’s approaches towards arms control are different. Both sides have divergent views on ballistic missile defense shields, tactical nuclear weapons, and conventional weapons. Since, 2022, Russia is not participating in the New Start treaty aimed at former military support to Ukraine. It seems that in the future, any kind of arms control discussions between the two sides will be more complicated and complex.
This book also elaborates on ongoing military competition between the U.S. and China and its negative repercussions on arms control approaches. In the past, arms control approaches were used to manage great power military competitions and arms races. In the current strategic environment, it is necessary that great powers are required to adhere to restraint policies and accommodate each other’s interests.
Such policies may lead to creating a conducive environment for conducting any meaningful arms control treaties among the great powers in the future. Furthermore, for preventing nuclear proliferation, it is important that the U.S. continue to provide extended deterrence to Japan and South Korea.
In the backdrop of increasing military competition among the great powers, some scholars also suggest conducting trilateral arms control treaties or measures. They also suggested establishing a trilateral nuclear crisis communication system.
The authors of this book also suggest that the United States can opt meaningful arms control treaty with China and Russia if it offers certain arms control measures on its existing anti-ballistic missile defense shield. Similarly, Russia and China can also make arms control measures more complicated if they demand certain measures on the part of states like France, Britain, and India. Furthermore, great powers have incentives to conduct arms control measures on offensive weapons like MIRVs, intercontinental glide vehicles, and anti-ballistic missile shields.
This book also discusses that ongoing military competition among the great powers can compel regional states to develop their own independent nuclear weapons program due to increasing security threats.
The authors advocate for a shift from traditional arms control treaties to nuclear risk reduction and confidence-building measures.
In this edited book, different authors covered most aspects of arms control which range from the historical usefulness of arms control measures during the Cold War era to contemporary times. However, unlike in the past, the global strategic landscape is characterized by multipolarity. It was easier for superpowers to manage their competition during the Cold War era. However, due to the characteristics of multipolarity, managing increasing military competition is not only difficult but it is more complex and complicated.
Furthermore, this book suggests various ways to make arms control meaningful and effective in contemporary times. However, it paid less attention to offensive military doctrine and the military posture of great powers. Particularly states like the United States and Russia are adhering to offensive military doctrine and posture. Such developments increase security threats to their competitors. In arms control measures offensive military doctrine and posture should also be the focus.
This book also does not discuss the role of great powers in promoting a global competitive strategic environment. Particularly in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. To have successful arms control treaties and measures, the great powers must promote a cooperative global strategic environment with more integration, interdependence, and global trade.
The ongoing military competition among great powers could compel regional states to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs, increasing global security threats.
Finally, this book did not highlight the consequences of the role of domestic politics in the United States. If in the future, Trump came into power, the existing international order might be on shaky ground. Trump has already declared that the United States may abandon its allies, and may withdraw extended deterrence. In such a scenario, there will be more nuclear proliferation and more military competition and arms race. Such trends can also lead to even war.
However, the authors are optimistic about the value of arms control and say that political leaders one day will again see arms control as a primary tool to manage the arms race and crises.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
The author is an M. Phil Scholar at Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad. Currently associated with ISSI.