Support Us

Write For Us!

Opinions, Analysis, and Rebuttals.

Writers Pool
About Us

A Global Digital Think-Tank on Policy Discourse.

Home Blog Page 2

Semiconductors and Minerals: Rising U.S.-China Trade Conflicts

By
Aroona Khan
-
0
Semiconductors

Contrary to prevailing views that economic interdependence promotes peace and cooperation among the states, experts argue that economic interdependence has security implications due to asymmetric economic relations among states. A state may be dependent on other states for critical goods and commodities.

States fear that the other side may leverage such dependence to devastate its economy. States are trying to reduce such exposure which is leading to more tensions and military competition. The United States and China are the most significant trade partners. However, this trade is asymmetric. It implies that the trade balance between the two supports the former. The latter fears that in the future, China may exploit such dependence on critical goods and materials.

The U.S. imposed export restrictions on advanced semiconductors, aiming to limit China’s military and AI advancements.

Furthermore, the U.S. is also persuading its allies to de-risk their economies to reduce their vulnerabilities and diversify their trade relationship. It is also convincing them to use the U.S.-sponsored supply chain coalitions. That is why the United States administration has been trying to decrease China’s capability to purchase advanced US materials such as semiconductors, chip-making materials, and other essential technologies since the year 2022.

Now just a few weeks before Donald Trump’s return as president, the United States announced new export restrictions on China’s advanced semiconductors on December 2, 2024. China has condemned the United States’ hawkish stance. As the U.S. is increasing its efforts to reduce the export of state-of-the-art chips to China. These chips are used in artificial intelligence and advanced weapon systems.

The U.S. commerce secretary said that Joe Biden’s presidency had been tough in strategically addressing the issue of China’s military upgrading through export controls. The national security adviser Jake Sullivan also said that the United States has taken important measures to protect the use of our technology by our adversaries which is important for national security.

The United States has banned deals to 140 companies; these include Chinese chip firms Piotech and SiCarrier. The U.S. Commerce Department said that these restrictions are introduced to reduce China’s development of advanced artificial intelligence that is used for advanced warfare and weaken China’s growth of its semiconductor ecosystem.

These rules included the ban on China-bound deliveries of high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. These chips are used in applications such as Artificial intelligence training, software utensils and chipmaking materials. These also included the equipment made in Singapore and Malaysia. The firms that are most affected are Chinese or Chinese-owned industries in Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.

China retaliated by banning exports of critical minerals like germanium, gallium, and antimony essential for military and AI technologies.

After the latest restrictions of the United States on exports of advanced chips to China, the government of the Netherlands said it is also concerned about the United States’ tension and is closely monitoring the latest restrictions and would soon decide if it will increase its own controls on China.

The Netherlands-based computer chip equipment maker ASML said that if their government would enforce the new rules, these latest restrictions would affect its export of deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) systems to the chip-making plants in China. They are already following the restrictions of the US government on the selling of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (EUV) to China.

Following these restrictions, China announced that it had forbidden exports of important minerals such as germanium, gallium, and antimony to the United States. These are rare minerals, which are mined in small quantities. These minerals are used in the materials used for the military such as in different kinds of weapons systems and technical products such as semiconductors and chips that are used in advanced computers and artificial intelligence. These elements are also used in electrical machinery such as vehicles and other devices.

China announced it the next day after the United States’ latest restriction on its chip sector. These trade problems between the United States and China had increased just before newly elected President Donald Trump joined next month. According to the Chinese officials, this was an important initiative as the United States was violating export controls. The Chinese industry associations have said that these restrictions and sanctions would affect the global chip industry and will increase the prices in the United States.

The Netherlands and its company ASML are under pressure to align with U.S. restrictions, affecting global chip supply chains.

These trends reflect that political and military tensions are increasing between the two states. Expectations are that the incoming Trump administration will intensify these trends next month. These developments may have negative repercussions on global economic interdependence and promote competitive environments among states. These trends will also affect the companies globally that are producing or depend on semiconductors as these bans on exports would eventually cause the prices to increase.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Politics in the Digital Age

By
Prof. Dr. Muhammad Munir
-
0

Among the novel platforms, TikTok has established itself not only as a source of fun and most popular trends but as a factor in political life as well. Due to the company’s population of billions of users, the majority of whom belong to the younger generation, TikTok has become an influential platform for political campaigns, which helps candidates get in touch with the electorate, and come up with exciting ideas.

Teodorescu, a political strategist for Romanian political figure Georgescu, known for pioneering marketing campaigns on TikTok, has been widely appreciated and criticized for his efforts. However, increased risks associated with the app with regard to national security have prompted leaders such as in Romania to request the suspension of TikTok.

TikTok’s viral nature allows politicians like Georgescu to bypass traditional media, engaging directly with voters, especially the youth and diaspora.

Thus, the use of TikTok in political campaigns can be attributed to social media platforms as the key platforms in political communication. TikTok has over a billion active users all around the world and the site’s algorithm is essentially based on sharing specific content with millions of people, so the videos may get views even if the account owner has few followers. In making TikTok an appealing opportunity for politicians, this viral capability can create an appealing option for expanding the target demographic.

Like other politicians around the world, those in Romania appreciate the ways that TikTok undermines conventional forms of division between politicians and citizens. While sharing short and funny videos, politicians can go around the mass media and discuss with the audience in a manner that is familiar and familiarized by the everyday ‘language’.

Georgescu, a young aspiring Romanian politician is one of those who has successfully incorporated TikTok into his electoral campaign. The flow of his campaign is therefore humorous, relatable, current, and appropriately in tune with the format of the application. Employing TikTok, unlike the conventional campaigning approaches, Georgescu is devoid of his political personality of the robotic aspect.

He makes videos on vlogs based on his everyday life, politics explained in layman’s terms, and reactions to current trends. His approach has been able to engage the youths who normally turn a blind eye to most political discourses. By using this social platform, Georgescu learns how to position himself as a politician who is quite familiar with the issues youth encounter in their everyday lives, therefore they learn to cast their vote for him.

The app facilitates interactive Q&A sessions, fostering voter engagement and creating an open, relatable political atmosphere.

Using TikTok during modern political campaigning, Georgescu shares an essential strategy for reaching the target audience. The platform’s option to cause viral moments may be an effective asset in the pursuit of attention, more so in the context of election campaigns. As opposed to print or television outlets which may come with editorial policies limiting the access of the public, TikTok offers a more creative orifice to the public.

One venue is Verschuren through which politicians can express themselves and communicate their messages in an unpolished and spontaneous manner. This can make them seem sincerer, which might help build rapport with the audience, and in turn, potential voters.

In addition, TikTok is not only a national platform where people can share their views, but politicians can also convey their messages to international audiences. According to Georgescu, TikTok is helpful not only in reaching the Romanian voters at home but also the Romanian diaspora who vote, the latter group that is often disregarded despite its significance.

Thus, through using TikTok, Georgescu was not only able to connect with the target audience base very actively using social networks but also reached the audience that may be less sensitive to standard political advertising.

Romanian officials fear TikTok’s data collection poses a national security risk due to its connection with Chinese parent company ByteDance.

By being visual and providing interactivity, TikTok also allows political campaigns to engage voters in ways that are beyond a speech or an advertisement. For example, Georgescu has been using TikTok to conduct question-and-answer sessions, where fans are free to ask questions directly.

During these sessions the voters can make different statements and watch, how their problems are being solved on the spot; this creates a sort of open-vote atmosphere. Such interaction may be most popular among young people lacking motivation in more conventional means of political participation.

Although the app works as a powerful political promoting instrument, it also plays an important part in political discussion which is controversial. Like many others, Romania has been seeing the risks associated with the platform and questioning its presence on security and privacy grounds. The Romanian government has been increasingly concerned about the connection between TikTok and China, where it is controlled by ByteDance.

TikTok’s dual role as a political tool and a security concern fuels debates about social media’s influence on political processes.

The U.S. government has expressed alarm that data of TikTok users risks being plundered by Chinese state actors for security. Threats are seen as emanating from the preponderance of ownership of TikTok by Byte Dance, a Chinese company suspected of passing user data to its home government. Romania is joining the list of countries that are doubtful about the potential of getting the TikTok platform suspended.

These concerns have prompted Romania to demand the ban of TikTok arguing that its functioning poses a major threat to the privacy and safety of Romanians. TikTok government officials fear the app can use the collected data for political manipulation given that social networks are now increasingly becoming integrated into political processes. This has created a discussion in society as to the responsibility of social networks to form opinions and whether this is in Britain’s interest to control or even ban these platforms.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Strengthening the Morocco-China Partnership

By
Dr. Zukun Lyu
-
0
Morocco-China

In the adjusting world structure and multi-polarity world economy Strategic partnership between Moroccan and China based on economic Cooperation and Interests. As two culturally oriented yet physically distant countries, the parties have been interested in defining new opportunities for cooperation in such fields as trade, infrastructure, education, and technology.

Morocco’s strategic location makes it a gateway for Chinese investors into Africa and Europe, aligning with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Morocco and China have been enjoying strong and stable relations regarding economic relations in the last few decades with commercial relations being the core pillar of the relationship between the two nations. Chinese companies invest in electronic devices, textile industries, machinery, and chemical products and Morocco is one of China’s biggest trading partners.

On the other hand, Moroccan exports consist of, phosphates, costumes, and agricultural products to China. The balance of trade has been more inclined to China, since Morocco exports far more to China than it imports. This imbalance is not unusual, and of course, is not specific to Morocco; it does however offer the two countries the chance to find ways of bringing about a better balance in bilateral trade that fosters diversified beneficial exchanges.

This means that the country has the potential to expand its export market to China especially in farming, and in the exploitation and exportation of natural resources. It has high-end minerals such as phosphates which is used in fertilizers that might satisfy the growing Chinese market for agricultural produce. Also, the export of some Moroccan products like argan oil, which is known today to have health benefits, can also have a ready market in China. Since the Chinese middle class is expanding fast and their eating habits are changing, Morocco could diversify its exports, particularly in the food, drinks, and luxury sectors.

On the same note, Morocco has the advantage of being a doorway to Africa for Chinese investors who intend to venture into the African market. Morocco is also geographically located on the Mediterranean coast thus it is a perfect gateway for Chinese investors willing to penetrate both Europe and Africa. Indeed, after increasing cooperation with Morocco, the Chinese may leverage the North African country to boost its influence across the whole African continent, which remains a focus of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to China.

The BRI, which China conducts to construct a web of international important connectivity stretching from Asia to Africa and Europe, has been central to the bilateral ties and Morocco has been part of the initiative. Since Morocco joined the BRI in 2017, Moroccan has recorded a boost in the flow of Chinese investments in the infrastructure sector including ports, roads, and railways. For instance, Tangier Med Port – a large African seaport – has been bolstered financially by Chinese investment in Morocco’s efforts to upgrade its transport connections to global markets.

Chinese investments in Moroccan infrastructure, like Tangier Med Port, enhance Morocco’s global competitiveness and connectivity.

Infrastructure development can be named one of the major aspects of further enhancement of the Moroccan-Chinese strategic partnership. Morocco can keep on improving its infrastructure through construction that is being financed by China and this will make it even more competitive in the international market. Furthermore, the construction of new railway and tarmac tracks for highways will open the Moroccan market in the African and European Union Common Market for Moroccans as well as Chinese traders and industrialists.

There is also a good potential for joint ventures not only in broader infrastructure development but in the sphere of renewable resources as well. Morocco is among the African countries that have embarked on the production of renewable energy especially solar and wind energies and has further made more goals towards producing more renewable energies in the future decades.

Currently, Morocco has identified renewable energy as a priority area, and as a leading manufacturer of renewable energy technology, China is uniquely positioned to assist Morocco. The men can sponsor renewable power projects in Morocco and thereby assist in the reduction of carbon emissions whilst making themselves a strategic ally of clean power in Africa.

As in the case of so many other countries, trade, and infrastructure remain the primary framework of the Moroccan-Chinese connection, yet, unlike in certain other countries of the Global South, culture and education represent an essential vector of both relations as well. Over the years, both countries have exercised efforts to improve mutual cultural awareness. Being an old Arab country, Morocco can provide China with ample opportunities to tap a different cultural zone in the Arab world, while experiencing, in turn, a brand-new civilization, traditions of elder times, and forward-looking policies.

Joint ventures in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, align Morocco’s green goals with China’s technological expertise.

Another significant cooperation, which has not been really developed, is educational exchange. China has been one of the favorite studies abroad destinations among Moroccan students with an interest in engineering, medicine, and business. On the other hand, Morocco will be a better destination for Chinese students to learn more, especially at the university education level in agriculture, the environment, and the Middle East in general.

There is still much potential to expand relations between Moroccan and Chinese academic institutions in terms of the number of jointly implemented academic programs, scholarships, and research collaborations, with knowledge flowing in a dual fashion between the two countries.

In addition, there is potential for the exchange of tourism between the two countries for reciprocity’s sake. As the middle class expands in China, more people are venturing into the global market for travel and holidays, and Morocco an exciting and culturally and historically rich country is on the map for Chinese consumers.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

From Afghanistan to East Asia

By
Waqas Abdullah
-
0
global conflict

In today’s society political processes are going through significant transformations, and more often than not these changes bring only worry. Beginning with the Taliban regaining control in Afghanistan to the political crisis in Bangladesh continuing war in Syria, and increasing tensions in South Korea, the world is seeing a series of unsettling events which could have serious consequences for global peace and security. As different beyond their contexts and origins, these events are characterized by unforeseeable uncertainty that redraws regional and global politics.

Therefore, what takes place in these regions has established a capability to influence not only the countries within such a region but the world at large. The recent and perhaps the most eye-popping of these events has borne fruit in August 2021 through the Taliban’s capture of Afghanistan. The fast collapse of the Afghan government in the wake of more than eighteen years of strife and a protracted with the support of US and NATO forces again came as a shock to the world.

The Taliban’s return in Afghanistan threatens progress on women’s rights and regional security, with implications for neighboring countries.

Currently, the state has no functioning institutions and the foreign forces that were present in Afghanistan withdrew hastily leaving no space for politics to be formed but for the Taliban. This political turnaround poses a threat to the progress this country has achieved in the last twenty years, especially on women’s issues and education. This has generated deep skepticism, not only for the population of Afghanistan, especially the female population and girls but also for the further development of the rest of the South Asian states.

Many people feel that repercussion of the Taliban’s gains is no longer confined to Afghanistan only. Easy vulnerability to neighboring countries influenced the country’s strategic importance for great powers such as Pakistan, China, Iran, and Central Asian states. Some people have concerns that Afghanistan could again become a Source of instability, not only international terrorism, which has not disappeared, including Al Qaeda, but other groups that could destabilize neighboring countries. The Taliban’s rise has ramifications for counterterrorism around the world, and the international community is largely still unclear about how, if at all, to approach the Taliban government and provide security.

For countries such as India which has a long porous border with Afghanistan, this is a problem in managing security while at the same time having to factor in the unpredictable political situation in Afghanistan. At the same time, once quite stable in the context of South Asia Bangladesh, is experiencing an increase in political instability. The country has long been governed by the Awami League, which has been in power for more than a decade now.

However, the recent elections in the country have been characterized by bribery and vote rigging, poll-related violence, and persecution of opposition. Though the fundamental problem exists in the political system of Bangladesh, other political issues include economic instabilities such as rising inflation rate, unemployment rate, etc which leads to protests and unrest. The challenge of political stability and democracy is worsening daily by the fact that there is increased political rivalry between the ruling party and the opposition. This situation if not managed could destabilize Bangladesh internally and regionally affecting mainly India with which Bangladesh shares most of its boundary and has vibrant economic relations.

Political instability in Bangladesh, fueled by economic struggles and electoral violence, risks regional destabilization.

The Syrian civil war which was launched a little more than ten years ago continues to rage and is considered one of the most intricate ones. Since the beginning of the war, more than half of the Syrian population has left the country becoming the largest refugee crisis in the world. This war has involved several foreign powers and all of them act for their purposes. Russia supports the Syrian regime while Iran and Hezbollah blatantly support President Bashar al-Assad. However, America and several other Western countries have supported the opposition này.

It also saw the rise of groups like ISIS which completely changed the structure of Middle East politics. The sectarian and political fragmentation of the powerful Syrian state has become the source of the regional instability. Turkey and Israel share the same perception of the conflict as a security issue and as a diplomatic problem that threatens to destabilize the entire region.

A rise in the numeracy of the groups and expansion of militant organizations have however deepened insecurity, making insecurity more probable in the region. In this regard, Bashar al-Assad under so much pressure to be removed from power has run to Russia to seek refuge leaving the government in the hands of other factions fighting to gain control. This political change has added to the complexity of the power struggle as factions implicitly attempt to establish they are in charge almost in the absence of Assad. These factions may find safe havens in Syria and this may bring new instabilities into the region.

The Syrian civil war continues to fragment the region, worsening sectarian divides and involving global powers like Russia, Iran, and the U.S.

And in East Asia, tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rising. So far, North Korea has insisted on possessing nuclear weapons and has often conducted several missile tests, which raises concerns among countries worldwide. It has long been real that the situation on the Korean Peninsula has been tense, but the recent changes indicate that the conflict is becoming more dangerous. The current activity of North Korea is increasing military responses from South Korea and the United States, which increases the level of military aggression. The probability of a classic war remains low, yet without a shadow of a doubt, full-scale hostilities would bring utter destruction not only to the Middle East but to the entire world.

Another peculiar situation, that worsens the quality of life significantly, is the risk of a nuclear war in South Korea. Activities such as missile tests and the work being undertaken on nuclear warheads have given rise to the impression that North Korea is likely to pose a direct threat to the US in the future. In trying to address the nuclear issue midwifed by North Korea, the international community has adopted several diplomatic measures but to a greater extent, none has succeeded. With both America and China harbouring an interest in the region this state of affairs is rather balanced. Each strike could lead to disastrous consequences, and the whole world is still thinking about how it can effectively respond to the intelligence of North Korea without causing war.

North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and missile tests escalate tensions, increasing military responses from South Korea and the U.S.

Finally, the political dynamics that we observed in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Syria, and South Korea cannot be analyzed without reference to major trends taking place around the world. These regions are not in a vacuum; their instability has come with consequent politico-sectarian destabilization of neighboring countries and distant world powers. Modern society is becoming more unpredictable due to the ill-democratic governmental systems, the collapse of democracy, and terror-related ideologies.

This is quite a dangerous position for the world as it meaningfully announces the future of local warfare, economic crisis, and the degradation of international law. The world needs to wake up to these changes now more than ever because the risks have ascended to new heights. It is necessary to cooperate on the international level and act wisely with other countries if we don’t want escalation to occur and all countries get to the edge of the cliff.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

A Complex Reality

By
Shahzad Masood Roomi
-
0

Pakistan’s political landscape has been marred by ongoing turmoil, with protests and confrontations between supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and state authorities escalating to violent clashes. While addressing concerns about human rights and freedom of assembly remains vital, it is equally important to examine these developments within their broader context. Oversimplifying such incidents as mere acts of state repression risks ignoring the complexities of maintaining law and order during periods of political instability.

Recent protests organized by Imran Khan’s supporters were far from entirely peaceful. Accounts and reports suggest that many demonstrators arrived prepared for confrontation, wielding sticks, stones, and even catapults. Such actions clearly indicate a premeditated intent to escalate tensions rather than conduct a peaceful assembly. In any nation, protests involving armed individuals blur the lines between civil demonstrations and riot, necessitating an assertive response from law enforcement.

The resulting clashes between protesters and security forces tragically led to fatalities on both sides, including among law enforcement personnel. This underlines the severity of the threat faced by the police and military during these events. Addressing such incidents requires understanding the immediate need to prevent escalating violence that could jeopardize public safety and national stability.

Protests involving armed individuals blur the lines between peaceful demonstrations and riots, necessitating assertive law enforcement responses.

Critics have raised concerns about the alleged use of extreme measures, such as “shoot-at-sight” orders. While such measures are alarming, they are typically reserved for scenarios where lives are at imminent risk. It is crucial to consider the context: security forces were faced with violent assaults and escalating chaos. The decision to issue such orders, if it indeed occurred, may have been a last resort aimed at minimizing further casualties.

In situations of political unrest, maintaining law and order often forces authorities into difficult decisions. It is simplistic to characterize these responses as purely oppressive without acknowledging the dangers posed by violent rioting and the potential for widespread bloodshed. Security personnel operating under such conditions face significant risks and are tasked with preventing harm to both public and private interests.

Another major concern raised during such events is the control of information flow by the government and military. Transparency is undoubtedly vital in upholding democratic principles. However, it is equally important to recognize the chaotic nature of these situations, which makes misinformation a significant risk. During times of unrest, unverified reports and rumors can exacerbate tensions and lead to further violence.

Governments often impose temporary restrictions on information dissemination as a means of stabilizing volatile situations. While this approach is controversial and raises legitimate concerns about freedom of speech, it can also be viewed as an effort to restore calm by preventing the spread of unverified or inflammatory content.

Allegations of extreme measures, like “shoot-at-sight” orders, must be understood within the context of escalating chaos and imminent threats.

The protests by Imran Khan’s supporters must also be seen through the lens of Pakistan’s ongoing political challenges. Pakistan faces a delicate balance between safeguarding democratic freedoms and ensuring national security. Repeated protests and political confrontations that disrupt public life create significant governance challenges. In such circumstances, restrictions on gatherings or decisive law enforcement measures may become necessary to restore order and prevent the further deterioration of public safety.

National security considerations are particularly sensitive in a country like Pakistan, which has faced decades of political volatility and security threats. Violent protests can quickly escalate into broader unrest, creating opportunities for hostile actors to exploit instability. Ensuring public order, therefore, requires a measured but firm response.

Human rights concerns must always remain central to any discourse on governance and civil liberties. Incidents of excessive force or alleged abuses by security forces must be independently investigated to ensure accountability. However, it is equally essential to avoid viewing such situations in isolation or without context. A balanced approach requires recognizing the pressures faced by security agencies during moments of heightened political tension and the complexities of ensuring public safety.

Governments often impose information controls during unrest to prevent misinformation, though this raises concerns about freedom of speech.

The recent political unrest in Pakistan underscores the challenges of governance during turbulent times. While it is critical to address concerns over human rights and government transparency, it is equally important to understand the broader context of violent protests and the security risks they pose.

The actions of the Pakistan Army and law enforcement agencies must be evaluated not in isolation but as part of their responsibility to restore order and protect public life. A nuanced analysis of these dynamics is essential for fostering informed discourse and supporting a balanced perspective on governance, civil liberties, and national stability in Pakistan.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Geopolitics of the South China Sea

By
Musaib Sharif
-
0
South China Sea

The South China Sea, which spans about 3.5 million square kilometers, is one of the most disputed regions in the globe. Considering its strategic location, abundance of resources, and complicated boundaries, it is an important area in international relations. The developments that take place in the South China Sea depend not only on the countries that surround it but also on the entire world.

The South China Sea is referred to as the ‘the lifeblood of world economy’, with approximately 30% of the world’s sea freight volumes passing through it which surpasses $3 trillion. Furthermore, its total oil and gas resources are estimated to be about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas which lies at great depths. Because of this, it is not just an important commercial route but also a resource-rich zone that is very relevant to political significance as well.

The South China Sea carries 30% of global sea freight, worth over $3 trillion annually, making it vital for trade and resources.

However, the region’s importance is not only resource-related. The South China Sea anchors the two most important Oceans, the Pacific and Indian, and its major region in regards to maritime relations and military strategies. Gaining economic returns is but one strategy in this arena; so is preventing any challenge to a crucial CAS element in an interconnected global marketplace and exercising power in the broader Indo-Pacific.

The South China Sea has had an ongoing dispute thanks to overlapped territorial claims from China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The claim of China is considered the most all-encompassing one as it relies on the controversial nine-dash line which encompasses most of the South China Sea. This claim thoroughly accentuates the negative relations with the exclusive economic zones of Southeast Asian nations.

A ruling of 2016 by the Permanent Court of Arbitration is worth mentioning as they sided with the Philippines and decided that the claims presented by China were unfounded as there was no legal backing for them under international law. However, in spite of this China has asserted its dominance by creating manmade islands and placing military equipment on them which has resulted in tension between China and other nations in the region.

The notable claimants to this dispute include among others:

  • Vietnam also disputes the control over The Paracel and Spratly Islands held by China.
  • The Philippines, which borders China and from the start have regularly encountered disputes in regards to fishing practices and the EEZ of the Philippines.
  • Malaysia and Brunei, whose focus of attention is specific features of claims within their territorial seas.

US does not lay claim to any part of the South China Sea but it has emerged as a key player in the region. The U. S. Navy undertakes Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) as a means of contesting China’s assertions and professes the need for an open and rule-oriented maritime order. Other states such as Japan, India, and the EU have expressed support for the principle of international law, including the Law of the Sea.

China’s territorial claims, based on the controversial nine-dash line, challenge international rulings and Southeast Asian nations’ exclusive economic zones.

In recent years, there has been a rapid increase in China’s military footprint in the South China Sea. The building of man-made islands that house air bases, missile deployment, and radar facilities has aggravated the region significantly. As a result, nations such as Vietnam and the Philippines have augmented their naval forces while other nations, including the US, have increased their military presence in the area.

The interests here not only involve territorial control but include the dominant political posture within the Indo-Pacific region. The South China Sea has turned out to be a flashpoint where superpowers are showcasing their prowess, and therefore it is going to be an important region to focus on in the years to come.

It seems that while the geopolitical and economic aspects around the South China Sea appear to be the centerpiece of the discussions regarding South China Sea disputes, the environmental dimension of those disputes appears to be equally disquieting. The extreme depletion, the construction of island outposts, as well as the pollution, are affecting the region’s marine ecosystems greatly. The littoral communities’ dependency on coral reefs that provide economic resources and greatly contribute to the region’s biological diversity has been grossly undermined through dredging and other activities.

The environmental degradation is also affecting indigenous coastal communities who rely on the sea for their livelihoods. As tensions increase, these communities and their resources are being drawn into what is an elongated geopolitical tussle over the future of their home region respectively.

Rapid militarization, including China’s man-made islands, has escalated tensions, drawing in superpowers like the U.S. through Freedom of Navigation Operations.

The analogies take as much smoke and dust into inter sociocultural existence of geopolitics as it has ever been eroding and mix used endlessly on the frontline malignant forceful inclined focusing on such detailing. Political alliances and treaties like the ASEAN or UNCLOS on the other hand offer possible channels for talks… but only if everyone is ready to give up a part of their advantage and focus more on their collective might out of human desire and logic.

Considering that this part of the world is becoming increasingly important in global affairs, the South China Sea has the potential to alter the geopolitical realities of the Indo-Pacific and also the world order. Will it be the site of conflict or the allegory of peace? The residents of this area are making the choices that will determine the milieu of the South China Sea and will also define global order for times to come.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

The Final Nail on Their Own Coffin: Taliban bans Female Medical Institutions

By
Mozammil Shinwari
-
0
Taliban

The Taliban’s recent decision to ban female students from attending medical institutions is yet another devastating blow to womens’ rights and Afghanistan’s future. This move, similar to their previous draconian rule in the 1990s, has drawn widespread international condemnation and further isolated the Taliban government on the global stage. By denying women the opportunity to contribute to society as medical professionals, the Taliban are not only crippling healthcare in Afghanistan but also undermining their legitimacy and long-term stability.

The Taliban’s ban on female medical education devastates Afghanistan’s healthcare, especially for reproductive health.

The Taliban’s hostility toward womens’ education is not new. During their first regime (1996–2001), girls were barred from attending schools, and women were largely excluded from public life. Their worldview, rooted in an extreme interpretation of Islam, views womens’ empowerment as a threat to their authority. After their overthrow in 2001, Afghan women and girls began to experience progress, with access to education expanding significantly. By 2020, millions of Afghan girls were attending schools, and women were participating in professions ranging from law to medicine.

However, with the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, these hard-won gains have been rapidly undone. In December 2022, they banned women from universities altogether, claiming it was due to non-compliance with their strict dress codes and gender segregation policies. The latest move to bar women specifically from medical institutions is an alarming escalation in their systematic campaign to exclude women from society.

Banning female students from medical institutions is particularly catastrophic for Afghanistan’s fragile healthcare system. In a conservative society like Afghanistan, many women prefer to be treated by female doctors, especially in matters related to reproductive health. With the prohibition on women entering the medical field, the number of qualified female doctors will decline over time, leaving millions of Afghan women without adequate healthcare. This will increase maternal and child mortality rates, which are already among the highest in the world.

International isolation grows as Taliban policies erode legitimacy and prevent foreign aid.

The Taliban’s actions are not only cruel but also self-defeating. By closing the doors of opportunity for half of the population, they are closing the exact progress Afghanistan desperately needs to address its ongoing crises. A weak healthcare system, compounded by a brain drain of professionals fleeing Taliban rule, will push the country further into despair.

The international community has repeatedly condemned the Taliban’s restrictions on women and girls, yet the group remains unmoved. Their actions have isolated Afghanistan from potential donors and international organizations. Aid agencies, including the United Nations, have struggled to operate effectively in a country where women are barred from participating in public life, including working for NGOs.

Countries that once showed a willingness to engage with the Taliban, such as Qatar and Pakistan, are now growing increasingly critical. The Taliban’s refusal to adhere to basic international norms, particularly regarding womens’ rights, has made it nearly impossible for them to gain recognition as a legitimate government.

Despite the uninviting situation, Afghan women continue to resist. Protests led by women demanding the right to education and work have taken place in major cities, often met with brutal crackdowns by the Taliban. Underground schools and informal education networks have sprung up, keeping hope alive for thousands of girls. Afghan men, too, have joined the cause, with some male professors and students boycotting universities in solidarity with their female counterparts.

Afghan women continue resisting through underground education and protests, keeping hope alive.

By banning women from medical education and other forms of schooling, the Taliban are sealing their fate. Their policies are not only morally indefensible but also economically and socially disastrous. Without the participation of women in education and the workforce, Afghanistan’s path to recovery and development remains blocked.

The Taliban may retain power in the short term through repression, but their long-term survival as a governing entity is unsustainable without the support and participation of their people. A nation that silences half its population cannot thrive—this decision may well be the final nail in the coffin for the Taliban’s fragile regime.

If Afghanistan is to have any hope of a brighter future, the Taliban must reverse course and allow women to reclaim their rightful place in society. Until then, the cries of Afghan girls yearning for education will continue to echo as a powerful reminder of the injustice being inflicted on an entire generation.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Noor Wali’s Tactics and Internal Rifts in TTP Leadership

By
Iftikhar Hussain Jazib
-
0
Noor wali

TTP Chief Noor Wali Mehsud has united over 30 groups of terrorist outfits since 2018, and he has also restored the monopoly of the Mehsud clan in the Fitna Al-Khawarij terrorist group. He manipulates commanders and militants through power games for complete control of the terrorist outfit and deceives militants with religious articulation. He divides them when it suits his interests and favors a reunion after suppressing rival commanders.

Noor Wali Mehsud exploits tribalism and religious sentiments to consolidate control over terrorist groups amid internal rifts.

In a fresh episode of infighting among Fitna Al-Khawarij (FAK) commanders, an important terrorist commander from the Bajaur group of FAK, Rahimullah, alias Omer Shahid, has been killed in Kunar, Afghanistan. He was assassinated in a gun attack in which his three close associates were also killed. The slain commander had developed differences with Noor Wali Mehsud, and he eliminated him to suppress opposition for complete control over militants.

Reportedly, Noor Wali has also engaged the Hafiz Gulbahadur group for a merger with Fitna Al-Khawarij TTP. The group has recently demonstrated a potent capability for violence in North Waziristan and joining areas. FAK desires to control it, but Hafiz Gulbahadur is unlikely to submit to Noor Wali. The failure of these discussions could lead to clashes with Fitna Al-Khawarij, as Noor Wali is very voracious in this regard.

Fitna Al-Khawarij announced a reunion with its Mohmand chapter, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), after serious clashes in 2023 in which scores of commanders and militants were killed. The split took place when Noor Wali attempted to enforce his favorite commanders on JuA. JuA broke away from FAK in 2014, and Noor Wali brought it into the Fitna Al-Khawarij fold in 2020. Shockingly, JuA chief Omar Khalid Khorasani was killed after this reunion, raising doubts about Noor Wali’s machinations.

FAK militants, demoralized by leadership struggles and fugitive lifestyles, question their false Jihad ideology.

The lies and deceits of top commanders are increasingly becoming disturbing for the militants of FAK. It conducts attacks in Pakistan but denies its responsibility, raising doubts about its motives and designs. Moreover, many militants are aware of turf wars among commanders and vengeance killings of rivals; therefore, they have lost heart in the misleading ideology of FAK leadership against Pakistan.

The rifts among Fitna Al-Khawarij commanders mainly occur over top appointments, funds, and assets. They are further aggravated by personal grudges and tribalism. Slain Hakimullah Mehsud killed several commanders for holding on to FAK from 2009 to 2013. Similarly, slain Mullah Fazlullah also killed scores of FAK militants in turf wars from 2014 to 2018.

Fitna Al-Khawarij terrorists are losing belief in the narrative of false Jihad in Pakistan, as most of them have also become fed up with a fugitive style of living in Afghanistan, and they want to return to their community, families, and friends. They are also facing pressure from close family elders to quit terrorism as the war against foreign forces has ended in the region.

After the departure of ISAF and NATO forces from Afghanistan and the termination of logistic support setups in Pakistan, they have no reason to continue terrorist attacks, and they question the killings of Muslims on a large scale in terrorism. Thus, militants are demoralized, and they are facing the pressure of leadership to participate in terrorist activities.

Islamic scholars and Afghan Taliban segments oppose FAK’s indiscriminate attacks, disillusioning its commanders and fighters.

Islamic scholars, religious seminaries, and mosques have become very vocal against terrorism in Pakistan, and some segments of the Afghan Taliban are also showing opposition to FAK attacks on innocent Muslims. Building ideological pressure has disillusioned some commanders and a large number of militants of Fitna Al-Khawarij, and they have become remorseful over the indiscriminate killings of innocent people in terrorist attacks.

However, FAK chief Noor Wali Mehsud is an ambitious person for power, and he is exploiting tribalism and misusing religious sentiments for personal glorification. In this quest, he is collaborating with anti-Pakistan forces, Indian proxies, and international terrorist organizations to revamp terrorism in Pakistan.

Counterterrorism experts believe that Noor Wali Mehsud is seeking greater control over terrorist groups to deter the Afghan Taliban as Pakistan is putting pressure on the interim Afghan government for his arrest and a check on the activities of Fitna Al-Khawarij on Afghan soil. However, some analysts revealed that he is uniting terrorist groups under the pressure of proxies of Indian R&AW to revamp terrorism in Pakistan.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

The US Nuclear Deterrence in a Multipolar World

By
Sadia Zahra
-
0
Nuclear

As China and Russia quickly increase the numbers of both the quality and their nuclear arsenals and deterrence systems, the United States has begun to feel threatened by such an unprecedented challenge. Formerly, the Soviet Union was leading in the nuclear scenario. Today, the United States faces the daunting task of updating old nuclear capabilities.

The critical question then becomes: Can the United States maintain its strategic supremacy, or will its challengers define the new nuclear dynamics? The stakes are incredibly high and timelines are tight. With its rivals making continuous progress while modernization efforts in the United States slow down, this may alter the global balance of power.

China plans to double its nuclear stockpile by 2030, focusing on hypersonic weapons and submarine-based deterrence to rival U.S. capabilities.

China is leading the charge in this nuclear change. It will be doubling its stockpile by 2030 to more than 1,000 warheads, an action many think would challenge the U.S. nuclear deterrence as never seen before. It’s not just about the numbers. The U.S. claims that China is rapidly advancing hypersonic weapons, meaning weapons that could evade any missile defense systems because of their speed and maneuverability.

China is also improving its submarine fleet to strengthen its sea-based nuclear deterrent. These advancements are intended to ensure that China can strike with accuracy and survivability, even in the worst-case scenario. This shift is in the global nuclear balance, as China seeks not only parity with the U.S. but also to overtake it in critical areas of deterrence, particularly in the perceived Indo-Pacific region.

Russia is taking an equally belligerent way forward. First, it had “friendship without limits,” the treaty with China – indicating the deepening strategic relationship of both countries. Following through in that alliance, Russia updated its nuclear triad. This year the Kremlin revealed a number of state-of-the-art devices that have been developed namely the nuclear Torpedo Poseidon, a penetrator that is undetectable and capable of striking at the heart of America’s missile defense and also hypersonic glide vehicle also termed as Avangard a penetrator bomb that cannot be detected.

For instance, Poseidon is aimed at blowing up the coast with nuclear heads which is a direct threat to U.S. and allied structures. The Avangard, with its hypersonic speed, strengthens Russia’s capability of a first strike and thus destabilizes concepts of nuclear security.

Taken together, these advancements not only fortify Russia’s nuclear stance but also communicate a loud and clear message: Russia will not hesitate to put things at parity with the US and will employ such sophisticated systems to flex muscle, especially in areas of geo-strategic importance as encompassing Eastern Europe and Arctic territories.

Russia’s Poseidon nuclear torpedo and Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle challenge U.S. missile defense systems, destabilizing global security.

Far more troubling for world peace is that North Korea is developing nuclear power and expanding itself. Capabilities in ICBM are on this path and getting more connected with Russia, which makes it even more complex. Sustained actions of the North Korean nuclear weapons development and their missiles. generally, hinder the endeavors for sustaining the strategic deterrence of America.

The efficiency of the traditional arms control structure in the US and Russia originated from the New START Treaty is continuing to come under pressure, particularly as the treaty agreement for the vehicle expires in 2026. In 2023, Russia suspended its membership claiming to be due to increased political tension, effectively pausing the inspections and the very compliance mechanisms that had been essential to the operation of the treaty. The future of the treaty, However, those goals are unknown now, and their attainment threatens international arms control.

In response to changing threats the world over, some scholars opine that the modernization of the nuclear forces of the United States can assist in containing the capabilities of the adversary. So, in this regard, the considered LGM 35A Sentinel and Columbia class submarines are vital for leveraging the new security threats.

However, skeptics are cautious about considering these steps as developed as the ideas to solve most of the problems since they may enhance regional apprehensions and start an arms race, particularly in gentle areas like South Asia. A literature review reveals that there is consensus on the need to work on risks in emergent technologies.

It is also apparent that actions aimed to enhance missile defense in the hypersonic realm as well as cybersecurity will strengthen the key nuclear C2 systems against potential adversaries. But such development should be done cautiously to avoid a situation where competing parties escalate their investments in these high-tech fields thus worsening global security.

Another very important component of arms control is the multilateral process. Scholars have underlined the requirement to include nuclear states like China, Russia, Pakistan, and India in structures that enhance transparency do away with the-opacity.

North Korea’s growing ICBM capabilities and ties with Russia further complicate U.S. deterrence in Asia.

Expanding the discussion, which includes all nuclear advanced capable states may help reduce the probability of an unmanageable arms race and improve global stability. This calls for a careful balance in terms of concerns about differences in political in terms of political priorities. Strategic implications that are of importance to all the stakeholders in the process.

Given these trends, the question arises: Can the U.S. modernize its deterrence capabilities fast enough to continue keeping nuclear security? Will South Korea and Japan, for example, rest on the American security guarantee or start devising their nuclear plans to counter deepening threats? Perhaps most fundamentally, though, how long can America hold the line against these rising nuclear powers before its edge is irreversibly in danger? The answers to all these questions will shape how global nuclear competition plays out in the decades to come, influencing the trajectory of world security.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.

Unmasking PTI’s Propaganda Machine: Drop Scene of 24 Nov Final Call

By
Ghazala Yousafzai
-
0

OVERVIEW

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) held a demonstration in Islamabad on November 24, 2024, calling for the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The demonstration turned violent when protesters broke into the extremely sensitive Red Zone area of D-Chowk, forcing police to use tear gas to scatter the crowd. The event attracted a lot of attention because of the political stakes involved as well as the extensive use of propaganda and false information to sway public opinion. False narratives about the demonstration were actively spread by prominent PTI figures and associated social media accounts.

Claims ranged from exaggerated turnout figures to manipulated visuals portraying police brutality and even AI-generated content aimed at maligning state institutions. These initiatives aimed to undermine national security and trust in democratic processes by misleading the people, inciting unrest, and portraying the state as totalitarian.

The deliberate dissemination of disinformation demonstrates how propaganda is increasingly being used as a political instrument to influence public opinion. These strategies pose serious threats to national interests and societal cohesiveness by taking advantage of the vulnerabilities of a public realm that is becoming more and more digital. It emphasises the urgent need for strong fact-checking procedures and critical media literacy to protect against manipulation as Pakistan struggles with this growing wave of digital dis/ misinformation.

In succeeding paras few disinformation campaigns/ claims run and supported by key leadership and supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-i-insaf have been fact checked which were used to propagate hatred against the state and armed forces.

DISINFORMATION CASE I- DEATH OF PTI WORKER

Claim

This section aims to investigate the widely circulated fake news of PTI worker Tahir Abbas Tarar’s death by Rangers while praying atop a container.

 
 

Fact-Check

A video on social media claimed Rangers dragged Tahir Abbas Tarar and pulled him down causing his death, attracted mass outrage and accusations of civilian killings against state institutions. PTI’s key leadership and official social media accounts amplified this claim, alleging that Tahir Abbas Tarar was killed on the spot. The incident sparked hashtags against state institutions and falsely reported Tahir’s family abduction, intensified the narrative.

Whereas, Tahir Abbas Tarar was not only alive but also met Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief minister Ali Amin Gandapur, who went to ask about his health. Pakistani news outlet also reported this visit.

Multiple social media posts confirmed Tahir Abbas Tarar being alive. One of the posts is from Mandi Bahauddin’s PTI MNA.

Simultaneously, another claim widely circulated on social media platform was abduction of Tahir Abbas Tarar’s family members. Instagram user posted a video with similar claims.

On contrarily, during his interview or meeting with KP chief minister, Tahir did not mention his family members being abducted which nullifies the false claims propagated on social media.

To verify the authenticity of viral claim, the video claiming Tahir’s death was closely analysed frame-by-frame using reverse image and video verification techniques to identify the original source and authenticity. Social media accounts that propagated the claim were identified, and their posting patterns was analysed to detect coordinated efforts.
 

 

Verdict
The claim that Tahir Abbas Tarar was killed by Rangers during a protest is false, as evidence shows he survived and was treated with minor injuries. The video was shared out of context to provoke public outrage.

Conclusion

The incident highlights the destructive power of disinformation, which exploits delicate situations to attack institutions, polarize society, provoke unrest, and reduce public confidence. It emphasizes the need to refute these myths to maintain social harmony and prevent political manipulation of popular sentiment.

CASE II – VIDEO FROM INDIA FALSELY ATTRIBUTED TO PTI PROTEST

Claim

A video circulated online after Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s protest rally and claimed hundreds of vehicles were moving towards Islamabad.
Fact-Check

Reverse image searches were performed on key frames from the viral video, which led to the original source of the video. It was found out that the video widely circulated by PTI accounts is originally from a political rally in India organised by the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). It was initially posted on Instagram in September.

 

Verdict

The claim that the viral video depicted the Islamabad protest on November 25, 2024, is False. The video was traced to an AIMIM rally in India and has no connection to the PTI protests.

Conclusion

Public perception can be distorted by irrelevant content that is mistakenly linked to an event, which fuels disinformation. Verifying content is essential during sensitive times to avoid manipulation.

DISINFORMATION CASE III – CLAIMED VIRAL VIDEO FROM EAST TIMOR AS PTI PROTESTERS MARCHING TO ISLAMABAD

Claim

A video circulating online claimed to depict thousands of demonstrators marching towards Islamabad in support of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Fact-Check

A reverse image search was conducted on key frames, which revealed that the video is from a Christian Event held by Pope Francis in East Timor in September 2024, where thousands of worshippers were seen exiting the event. No connection to protests in Pakistan.

Verdict

The claim that the viral video shows PTI supporters marching to Islamabad is False.

Conclusion

The incident underscores the need for critical evaluation of viral content, particularly during politically charged times. To combat such misinformation, it is crucial to rely on credible sources and verify content before sharing.

DISINFORMATION CASE IV –AI GENERATED BLOOD-COVERED IMAGE OF ISLAMABAD ALLEGEDLY PORTRAYING UNCOUNTED NUMBER OF DEATHS

Claim

Pakistani journalist @ImranRiazKhan shared an image on X of a blood-covered thoroughfare in Islamabad, claiming it depicted authorities washing the site after an alleged PTI protest massacre. The post sparked public outrage and state violence against dissenters. However, it was later confirmed to be AI-generated, lacking authenticity and not aligning with credible accounts or visual evidence.

Another social media user shared the same picture with the following caption: “At least more than 100 people have been martyred. Now the bodies are being hidden. Want to bring on record that 33 dead bodies were brought to only one hospital. Another 27. The rest of the numbers are coming.

Hitler Asim Munir Should Resign

#IslamabadMassacre”

 
Fact-Check

This claim was fact-checked to counter disinformation and assess the accuracy of the viral image. The spread of AI-generated visuals poses significant risks of inciting public unrest and creating a false perception of events.

Verification Steps:

·                 Reverse image searches were conducted to trace the origin of the image.

·                 Metadata analysis revealed the image’s creation using AI-based tools.

Comparisons with news reports, live footage, and verified photos from D-Chowk were conducted.

Verdict

The claim that the image shows blood-covered streets in Islamabad after a crackdown on PTI protesters is AI-Generated Disinformation. The image was AI-generated, displaying typical signs of artificial creation, including inconsistent textures and unnatural details.

Conclusion

The case underscores the dangers of AI-generated content spreading misinformation, emphasizing the need to verify the authenticity of viral content during political turmoil to prevent manipulation of public opinion. Information coming from trusted entities can be deceiving in manner.

DISINFORMATION CASE V- MISLEADING IMAGE CLAIMING TO SHOW DEAD BODIES AFTER ISLAMABAD PROTEST

Claim

A social media user, @Sufisal, shared an image claiming dead bodies were loaded into an ambulance after a security operation against Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf protesters in Islamabad.
Fact-Check

Reverse image search revealed that original post by the journalist Vannesa Beeley covering the Gaza conflict was made on November 1, 2024.

 

Verdict

The claim that the image shows fatalities from the Islamabad protests on November 26 is False and Misleading. The image is from Gaza, taken after an Israeli airstrike on a Palestinian refugee camp. It was shared on social media weeks before the Islamabad protests.

Conclusion

This incident underscores the dangers of misinformation during sensitive political times. The misuse of images from unrelated conflicts to promote false narratives can manipulate public emotions and incite unnecessary unrest.

DISINFORMATION CASE VI – MISLEADING VIDEO ALLEGEDLY DEPICTING ISLAMABAD PROTEST’s AFTERMATH

Claim

A 25-second video claiming to depict a security operation against Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf protesters in Islamabad went viral, causing public outrage and allegations of state-sponsored violence.
Fact-Check

A reverse video search was performed to trace the origin of the clip. Verified news reports from 2019 covering the Nankana Sahib incident were consulted to verify the claim. Reverse image search revealed that Pakistan mainstream media has reported clashes between two groups in Nankana Sahib in 2019, which resulted in the deaths of 4 people.

 

Verdict

The claim that the video shows the aftermath of the Islamabad protests is Misleading. The video is from a violent clash in Nankana Sahib, Punjab, in 2019. It has no connection to the November 2024 protests in Islamabad.

Conclusion

This case highlights the prevalence of misattributed and outdated content used to manipulate public opinion during politically sensitive times. The deliberate use of an unrelated video to spread disinformation underscores the importance of media literacy.

DISINFORMATION CASE VII – AI GENERATED IMAGE MISATTRIBUTED TO ISLAMABAD PROTEST

Claim

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) shared an image on Instagram claiming a violent crackdown on PTI protesters in Islamabad, causing outrage and condemnation.
Fact-Check

To verify the authenticity, a comparison of the shared image with real images of Jinnah Avenue in Islamabad was made. A comparison with actual images of Jinnah Avenue shows significant inconsistencies. The road structure, building alignment, and overall layout do not match the actual location. Moreover, building rooftops on both sides exhibits distorted angles and irregular construction, characteristic of AI errors.

 

Verdict

The claim that the image shows bloodshed on Jinnah Avenue during the Islamabad protests is AI-Generated Disinformation. The image is AI-generated and bears no connection to the protests or any real-life event.

Conclusion

The use of AI-generated imagery to fabricate evidence of violence undermines the credibility of legitimate protests and misleads the public. Such disinformation can provoke unnecessary fear and hostility, further destabilising an already tense political climate.

DISINFORMATION CASE VIII – DATED BACK VIDEO OF DOCTOR CRITICIZING STATE ACTIONS

Claim

A video of a doctor visibly emotional while speaking about government actions was widely shared on X (formerly Twitter). The post falsely connected the video to the crackdown on PTI protesters in Islamabad, claiming the doctor was lamenting alleged state brutality. With over 282,000 views and 2,100 reposts, the video spread rapidly across various platforms.
Fact-Check

A reverse image search traced the video to a YouTube post from April 18, 2021, by a TLP-affiliated channel. The video was filmed during violent clashes between the government and TLP supporters at Lahore’s Rehmat-ul-Lil Alameen Mosque, related to the group’s demand for the expulsion of the French ambassador.

The doctor in the video criticized the then Prime Minister Imran Khan, directly saying, “This is not the state of Madina. Imran Khan, do not misuse [Holy Prophet] Muhammad’s (PBUH) name.” The remarks clearly indicate that the video predates the PTI protests and is unrelated to the recent crackdown.

This video was originally uploaded on YouTube three years ago and had 148 views while reporting.

Verdict

The claim that the video of the doctor relates to the PTI protest crackdown in Islamabad is Misleading. The footage is from April 2021 and concerns a completely unrelated incident involving TLP protests in Lahore.

Conclusion

Disinformation, such as misattributing older, unrelated content to current events, can exacerbate societal tensions and mislead the public. The video in question was weaponised to falsely depict state brutality against PTI protesters, although it had no connection to the recent political unrest.

DISINFORMATION CASE IX – MISLEADING CLAIMS OF CASUALTIES AND USE OF FORCE DURING PTI PROTEST

Claim

PTI leadership and social media spread unconfirmed death tolls, claiming security forces killed up to 400 civilians. These accusations were fuelled by emotional descriptions of state brutality, but eyewitness reports and hospital comments refuted these claims, stating no shots were fired and non-lethal tactics were used.

Social media post claiming the casualties as high as 400 gained more than 687K views and was shared for more than 20,000 times.
Fact-Check

Another post from political figure Dr. Shahbaz Gill claiming 100 causalities was shared for more than 15,000. This post alone had more than one million views.

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf official account has also been misleading the general public regarding the number of casualties.

Confusion was increased when a Panjgur video of a car being fired upon was mistakenly linked to the Islamabad demonstration.

In reality, this video was recorded in Panjgur district of Balochistan, on the night of October 29, 2024, following an assassination attempt by the terrorist organization on a Baloch citizen, Zahir Shambezai. The video was initally posted on 29 October on Tiktok.

Statements from the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) and the Federal Polytechnical Institute were reviewed to ascertain the number and cause of injuries reported during the protest. Official statement from PIMS and Federal Government Polyclinic refuted the false claims of casualties and direct fires on protestors.

Verdict

The claim that 400 or 100 civilians were killed by direct gunfire from security forces during the protest is Disinformation. Hospital reports from PIMS and the Federal Government Polyclinic Institute confirmed that no gunshot injuries or deaths were recorded. Additionally:

  • The video from Pajngur was proven unrelated to the Islamabad protest and was linked to a separate incident.
  • No evidence of direct fire on civilians was found. Security forces exclusively used tear gas and shelling to manage the protest.

Conclusion

The circulation of unverified claims about casualties and the use of lethal force underscores the dangers of disinformation in politically charged environments. These narratives, aimed at undermining trust in state institutions, reflect the growing weaponization of fake news for political agendas.

DISINFORMATION CASE X – DATED BACK VIDEO CLAIMING PTI WORKERS SWIMMING TO ISLAMABAD DUE TO BLOCKAGE

Claim

A video circulating on social media, allegedly shows PTI workers swimming across a river to evade roadblocks and reach Islamabad for a party protest, but fact-checking revealed it’s unrelated to the PTI protest and dates back to September 2023.
Fact-Check

The video, allegedly a drug awareness initiative under the PTI flag, was linked to an event in Swabi, Pakistan in September 2023. The individual, Zahid, led the activity and made political statements supporting PTI, including calls for Imran Khan’s release and criticism of inflation. The video’s original intent was misinterpreted, misleading viewers.

Verdict

The claim that the video shows PTI workers swimming across a river to bypass roadblocks and reach Islamabad for the November 2024 protest is False. The footage is from a drug awareness activity conducted in Swabi in September 2023.

Conclusion

The video was repurposed to amplify the narrative of widespread and unconventional efforts by PTI supporters during the November 2024 protests. However, its original context debunks such claims, revealing the video as unrelated to the current political scenario.

DISINFORMATION CASE XI – AI GENERATED FALSE VIDEO CLAIMS ON PAKISTAN ARMY CHIEF’S VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA

Claim

In November 2024, Pakistan Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir allegedly touched Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s knee in a video widely shared on social media platforms TikTok and X, which was later confirmed to be AI-generated content.
Fact-Check

The video was initially uploaded by a TikTok account named “Bilal AI,” explicitly labelled as AI-generated and satire. The account’s bio mentions that it creates AI-generated content.

Despite the clear labelling on TikTok, the video gained traction on other social media platforms, amassing over 370,000 views. The official visit, which occurred on November 6, focused on discussions related to regional peace, defence, security cooperation, and enhancing bilateral relations. Both sides emphasised strategic cooperation during the meeting.

Verdict

The claim that Pakistan’s Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir touched Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s knee during their meeting is AI-Generated. The video circulating this claim is an AI-generated creation, as verified by its original uploader.

Conclusion

The incident highlights the dangers of AI-generated media in spreading misinformation, particularly when used to malign public figures or undermine diplomatic relations. The video, initially satirical, was later weaponized to stir controversy, harming reputations and destabilizing public trust.

DISINFORMATION CASE XII – PTI FALSE CLAIMS ABOUT PRESENCE OF SNIPERS DURING PROTEST

Claim

Following PTI protests, videos emerged online claiming snipers were targeting protesters. Qasim Suri, a PTI figure, posted a video of five people on a rooftop labelled as snipers. Another user shared a separate video claiming snipers were on Centaurus Mall. However, these claims are false and misleading.

Another X user claimed, “This video was also made by me; snipers were operating from each building, not one building

#Islamabad_Massacre #IslamabadMassacre”
Fact-Check

Keyframe review and zoom-in analysis were undertaken to identify key features. Examination of body posture, clothing, equipment, and behaviour was undergone. Research on standard characteristics of sniper deployment practices in urban conflict zones was considered to understand the pattern of operation.

Video Content Review:

●      In the first video, the individuals on the rooftop appear to be civilians, not armed personnel.

●      One individual is visibly older (approximately 50 years of age) and holding a smartphone, likely recording the protests below.

●      None of the individuals display military uniforms, tactical gear, or weapons such as sniper rifles or rangefinders.

●      In the second video of the Centaurus Mall, the figures are similarly unarmed, casually dressed, and engaged in observation or recording.

Snipers are highly trained, discreet operatives who blend into their surroundings, often using ghillie suits or urban cover. They use concealed vantage points and carry long-range rifles with scopes, with spotters using binoculars or rangefinders. They don’t operate in civilian attire, especially in high-stakes environments. Rangefinders, often appearing as small binoculars or handheld gadgets, are not used in videos.

 

Verdict

The claim that snipers were stationed on rooftops during the PTI protests in Islamabad is Disinformation. The individuals in the videos were civilians.

Conclusion

The spread of such misinformation can have serious consequences, including increased hostility towards state institutions and unwarranted panic among protestors. It is essential for the public to critically analyse such claims, rely on verified information.

DISINFORMATION CASE XIII – MISLEADING VIDEO CLAIMING STATE VIOLENCE AGAINST PTI PROTESTERS

Claim

A video circulated on X during the PTI protests in Islamabad, depicting a broken windshield and two allegedly dead men, was widely circulated. The video was backed by PTI supporters and a fan account of journalist Imran Riaz Khan. However, an investigation revealed the video had unreliable origins, was not filmed at D-Chowk, and contained unrelated cinematic elements. This tweet was shared more than 8,000 times & has more than 251.8K views.
Fact-Check

The exact origin of the video could not be verified. However, its location does not match D-Chowk, where the main protests occurred. The cinematic quality of the video, with deliberate camera movements and angles, suggests it may have been staged or unrelated to real events. Unlike genuine protest footage, the video lacked the chaotic and spontaneous elements typically seen in such scenarios. The video was not captured by CCTV but was shared by an Imran Riaz Khan fan account, known for amplifying pro-PTI narratives.

 

Verdict

The claim that the video shows state-led killings of PTI protesters is False and Misleading. The video is not from the protests at D-Chowk and appears to be a movie scene shared out of context to align with the anti-state narrative.

Conclusion

The circulation of this video highlights the importance of verifying content before dissemination, especially during politically charged events. Such misleading visuals can incite unrest and damage trust in institutions.

Lessons and Call To Action

The speed at which false information spreads on delicate political occasions, such as the PTI protests, highlights the risks that fake news poses in influencing public opinion and raising tensions. Misinformation operations use technology and human emotion to sow disorder, from AI-generated photos of blood-soaked streets to irrelevant videos falsely linked to protest violence. The use of repurposed content from other events (such as media from Gaza or previous TLP protests), doctored images, and claims of snipers attacking people demonstrate how narratives may be twisted to undermine public confidence in state institutions, mislead the public, and spark unrest. This emphasises how important it is to be vigilant and consume media responsibly during turbulent times.

AI-generated content has added a new dimension to misinformation, making it more difficult to identify and believable. Fact-checking efforts are often outpaced by the rapid spread of fake news, undermining democratic processes and causing fear and divisiveness. Strong systems are needed to combat online misinformation and teach people how to distinguish reliable sources from fake ones. To prevent the spread of lies, citizens, journalists, and online media must work together to promote a culture of critical enquiry. Verifying sources is a fundamental step in ensuring a better informed and more resilient society.

123...146Page 2 of 146

Stratheia aims to be a global pioneer in the field of strategic intelligence. Our independent team of researchers cover topics ranging from the latest geopolitical events, to public policy, cyber security, and intelligence analytics.

Share with Us

Opinions, Analysis, and Rebuttals.

Write for us
About Us
Writers Pool

© All Rights Reserved. Stratheia, 2024