In September 2021, the announcement of AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the US, transmogrified the Asia-Pacific security architecture. AUKUS, which is more than defense cooperation aimed at countering China’s expanding military footprint and political influence in the region. It will facilitate technology sharing to an unprecedented level, development of nuclear powered submarines and also increase interoperability for the 3 nations making the Anglosphere, a leading force in regional and global geopolitics. AUKUS is one of the most important security deals since World War II.
According to the deal, Australia is to buy at least eight, nuclear powered submarines able to carry out prolonged, silent operations in contested seas. But this is a major strategic pivot for Australia, boosting the long, $48.7 billion defense budget (2023) as regional tensions ratchet up. Trade worth $3.4 trillion flows annually through the South China Sea, making the Indo-Pacific particularly strategic and giving urgency to the pact.
It is the evolution of old style alliances to respond to modern security challenges, with the Anglosphere back at the heart of Indo Pacific geopolitics
AUKUS has been controversial, given its strategic promise. The cancellation of the deal was labeled by France as a “stab in the back” that will strain Western unity. They also warn that the move could spur regional militarization and kick off an arms race. It is the evolution of old style alliances to respond to modern security challenges, with the Anglosphere back at the heart of Indo Pacific geopolitics. Its implications for the balance of international stability and for the balance of power, are both profound and far reaching.
The conceptualization of AUKUS emerges as a strategic endeavor to underwrite deterrence, uphold maritime domains, and enhance the resilience of smaller regional states to the coercive threat
The Indo Pacific is the current battleground for the politics of the 21st century. However, China is assertive with arms proliferation and military escalation in South China Sea resulting from China’s economic statecraft spanning BRI, the US and its partners are rethinking how to function in a rule based order. When viewed from this broader vantage point, the conceptualization of AUKUS emerges as a strategic endeavor to underwrite deterrence, uphold maritime domains, and enhance the resilience of smaller regional states to the coercive threat.
Geographically and economically, Australia is positioned perilously; this is the reality that informs Australia’s AUKUS. But increasingly, it has been Chinese economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure that have landed on Canberra’s plate. While Australia does not possess the resources to be a nuclear power or possess nuclear weapons, AUKUS will enable Australia to continue pursuit of nuclear powered submarines, allowing Australia to be able to project power far from Australian shores and deter threats without drawing too heavily on US forces.
AUKUS offers the United Kingdom the chance to reinvigorate a post Brexit global posture. Britain’s Indo Pacific tilt and aspiration to stay a relevant global power is reflected in the UK Integrated Review 2021. The UK said it would back freedom of navigation, the liberal international order, in fact a vital part of the global trade network, aligning with the US and Australia.
For the country that is the linchpin of AUKUS — the United States — this pact is a vital piece in maintaining influence in the Indo-Pacific. While AUKUS is perfectly consonant with Washington’s regional strategy, it also includes the rolling up of ties with Japan, India and other members of the Quad. Under US leadership the UK and Australia embed into its Indo Pacific strategy as capable willing allies in the maintenance of regional stability.
Global AI spending in defense is expected to exceed $20 billion per year by 2026, and the market for hypersonic missiles will rise from $5 billion in 2023 to $15 billion by 2030
AUKUS, as much can be said about immediate security concerns represents enduring bonds of the Anglosphere. The Anglosphere’s basis derived in common history, language, legal tradition, and heritage of military cooperation makes it a special framework for trust and interoperability. Its members have strong cultural and institutional alignment — they have only joined an informal strategic alliance that is not based on competing interests, as is often the case with other such alliances — epitomised by the Five Eyes intelligence sharing framework between the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
AUKUS adds to this foundation by enhancing defense ties among Anglosphere’s main players. The United States, United Kingdom, and Australia together account for almost 40 percent of global defense spending, with the United States responsible for $877 billion in 2023 (equal to 38.8 percent of total global defense spending). The pact underscores emerging technologies like quantum computing and artificial intelligence, and hypersonic weapons, technologies where large sums are being poured.
Global AI spending in defense is expected to exceed $20 billion per year by 2026, and the market for hypersonic missiles will rise from $5 billion in 2023 to $15 billion by 2030. From its focus on innovation, AUKUS represents a shared commitment to preserving a qualitative edge in a time of IT revolution and geo strategic competition; particularly in the Indo Pacific region. This is an extremely important region, as it makes up over 60% of the world’s trade. For example, focusing on nuclear powered submarines, AUKUS directly supports Australia’s desire to enhance maritime security with the ability to deploy vessels for extended and stealth operations across the Pacific.
It reorients the Anglosphere to further fit the strengths of its past to the needs of present challenges. The combination of cutting edge technologies in their defense strategies shows how the United States, United Kingdom and Australia together stay committed to a rules based international order. AUKUS is not just a security pact: it is a strategic vision, with Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States determining that the Anglosphere, as a core letter of global security, must be at the center of those considerations.
The future of conflict depends on emerging technologies and undersea warfare. However, it is not simply a submarine pact, but a pact about the ways to construct a system of strategic posture that can adapt shape in the developing dynamics. That fits with Beijing’s wider depiction of Western alliances as relics of the Cold War.
Yet, China’s actions often contradict its rhetoric: Its aggressive stance is also manifested by over 1,700 military sorties near Taiwan this year and by militarization of at least seven artificial islands in the South China Sea. Nations in Southeast Asia have a mixed reactions. The flip side is that while many of the ASEAN members quietly welcome AUKUS as a new deterrent on the block, some like Indonesia and Malaysia are concerned that it would undermine ASEAN centrality and cause a further militarization in the region.
On the other hand, Japan and India view AUKUS as affordable for their strategic priorities. Japan boosted annual defense spending by 26 percent to $51 billion in 2023 to modernize its Self-Defense Forces, and India allocated $72.6 billion to defense and is expanding its navy to counter Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean.
With over 60% of the world’s GDP and $3.4 trillion in annual trade flowing through the Indo–Pacific, AUKUS projects itself as the keystone in a united regional security network to balance China’s rise
At the same time, AUKUS also fits into the Quad’s objective of promoting regional stability and pushing back on China’s assertiveness. AUKUS’s focus on technological and security collaboration complements the Quad’s 2023 $50 billion infrastructure initiative. With over 60% of the world’s GDP and $3.4 trillion in annual trade flowing through the Indo–Pacific, AUKUS projects itself as the keystone in a united regional security network to balance China’s rise.
Australia, the UK and the US established AUKUS, are set to redraw Asia-Pacific security for the foreseeable future. Nuclear powered submarines — at least four — that will be part of the pact with Australia will help inhibit China’s chance of dominating undersea warfare, which in the region is a crucial element of security. This shift in strategy has been underscored by Australia’s $48.7 billion defense budget in 2023 being directed towards bolstering maritime capability.
In addition, AUKUS brings forward the cooperation of technology, specifically, in the areas of artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons and supports interoperability of allied forces. Soon, global defense spending on AI in 2023 is tipping to over $20 billion and AUKUS will lead on technological innovation. The alliance of Britain’s armed forces with those of the United States reinforces allied defense capabilities in the increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region at a time when China is beefing up its military presence.
Transatlantic relations came under strain as AUKUS strained already frayed relations with France, a country with a previous $66 billion submarine deal with Australia
Nevertheless, ASEAN faces challenges in relation to AUKUS as a potential source of marginalization in the competition of great powers. If the policy direction set out by AUKUS continues to be made outside ASEAN’s framework, ASEAN’s consensus driven diplomacy may find it hard to address issues of critical importance to ASEAN. Combined $3.5 trillion GDP ASEAN still offers a lot of weight, but without a loud unifying voice its meaning will not have impact. Transatlantic relations came under strain as AUKUS strained already frayed relations with France, a country with a previous $66 billion submarine deal with Australia. There were strong diplomatic tensions about AUKUS excluding France and the lack of coherence in Western strategies in the region.
The future of conflict depends on emerging technologies and undersea warfare. However, it is not simply a submarine pact, but a pact about the ways to construct a system of strategic posture that can adapt shape in the developing dynamics
AUKUS — is a bold reassertion by the Anglosphere of its continued role of principle in shaping the strategic environment of the Asia Pacific. Their partnership has established the US, the UK and Australia as clear leaders in regional security, it respects and reinforces shared values, advances necessary military interoperability and drives forward new, innovative technology. But with geopolitical friction and diplomatic complexity around the bend, AUKUS goes to show that the Anglosphere isn’t stepping off the stage.
It isn’t evolving – it is recalibrating and preparing for a new era of challenges. The fact AUKUS is able to form and exist means that long standing alliances have the ability to be flexible to meet modern security threats. The future of conflict depends on emerging technologies and undersea warfare. However, it is not simply a submarine pact, but a pact about the ways to construct a system of strategic posture that can adapt shape in the developing dynamics.
It isn’t hard to see that beyond military cooperation, AUKUS can develop into broader economic and diplomatic relationships which advance a wider freedom order in the Indo Pacific. First, the ability of alliance members to hold together, second, management of regional sensitivities and third, agility in highly unpredictable geopolitics will decide the success of the alliance. All this is to say that AUKUS reflects that alliance based on shared values and mutual interest — i.e. the Anglosphere — as an enduring feature of the 21st century global order
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
