The inevitable has happened: Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel in Tehran on July 31, 2024. The slain leader was in Iran for the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian. The killing has been widely condemned and mourned the world over with official censure, and Iran has vowed ‘harsh revenge’ against Israel.

The reported modus operandi of the assassination attack is still unclear, but Israel has killed many birds with one stone. The killing has silenced one of the most popular and loyal Palestinian voices, eliminated the chances of an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, put a severe question mark on Iranian intelligence and security, enhanced the chances of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, and heightened the already volatile tension into a regional war.

The killing has silenced one of the most popular and loyal Palestinian voices.

Ismail Haniyeh, popularly known as ‘Abu al-Abd’, was a moderate but uncompromising voice of the Palestinians who became one of the most prominent Palestinian leaders. Haniyeh, born and raised in a refugee camp in Gaza, was a direct witness to the Israeli barbaric atrocities and terrorism. He joined Hamas since its inception in 1987 and worked closely with Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founder of Hamas. Haniyeh became Hamas leader after the assassination of Sheikh Yassin by Israel in 2004.

In the Palestinian elections held in 2006, Haniyeh was elected from Gaza and became the Prime Minister of Palestine; later, in 2017, he became the head of the political bureau of Hamas. Since October 2023, almost his entire family, dear and near-ones, have been martyred by Israel, including his sons and grandchildren in Gaza. He mostly lived in Doha-Qatar and widely traveled to Turkey, Iran, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

He was instrumental in the China-brokered unity agreement of all Palestinian factions in July 2024. (Stratheia, July 29, 2024) Since the Gaza war, he was the most sought-after leader for negotiations and ceasefire and remained the most vocal voice of the Palestinians till his martyrdom in July 2024.

Israel has killed many birds with one stone, heightening the already volatile tension into a regional war.

Israel has a long history of terrorist acts of eliminating Palestinian leadership; Deputy Chief of Hamas Political Wing, Saleh al-Arouri (2024), Senior Leader of Islamic Jihad, Al-Majzoub (2006), Head of Qassam Brigades, Adnan al-Ghul (2004), co-founder of Hamas, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi (2004), founder of Hamas, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, (2004), founder of Qassam Brigades, Salah Shehadeh, (2002), ‘Engineer’ of Qassam Brigades, Yahya Ayyash (1996), commander of Qassam Brigades, Imad Akel (1993), co-founder of Al-Fatah, Khalil al-Wazir, (1988), founder of Black September group, Ali Hassan Salameh, (1979), Rome PLO representative, Abdel Wael Zwaiter, (1972), spokesperson PFLP, Ghassan Kanafani, (1972) and many others (Aljazeera, July 31, 2024).

Therefore, the latest assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is not going to make any difference in the political and armed struggle of the Palestinians or Hamas. The ultimate decision for the new Hamas leader of its political bureau would be decided by its Shura Council, a consultative body composed of representatives from Gaza, West Bank, Diaspora, and Prisoners in Israel.

Still, prominent Hamas leaders, such as Khaled Meshaal, Khalil Al-Hayya, and Mousa Abu Marzouk, may take the Hamas leadership. As a senior Hamas official, Sami Abu Zuhri stated that “Hamas is a concept and an institution and not persons. Hamas will continue on this path regardless of the sacrifices, and we are confident of victory.” (Aljazeera, July 31, 2024) It signifies that the Palestinian struggle for their ultimate rights would continue, now with more vigor and valor.

In the wake of October 2023 Gaza war, Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu could not provide the promised security to Israel or its citizens, instead the pro-Palestinian demonstrations in the streets of Europe, Americas and Asia manifest the defeat of Israeli actions in Gaza. Even his coalition partners and some of his military commanders are not satisfied with Netanyahu, and Jews in the streets of Jerusalem are demonstrating against him; he also faces corruption charges. (Asia Times, August 2, 2024)

The assassination of the Hamas leader on the eve of the high-profile inauguration ceremony is a sheer diplomatic and security embarrassment for Iran.

To prove his credentials as a ‘security provider’ and to fight for his political survival, he is enlarging the canvas of the Gaza war into a regional conflict. Despite his being declared as a war criminal by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), his sojourn in Washington DC and reception by the US Congress gave him a new lease to strike the Palestinians and others with impunity. Resultantly, Israel struck two capitals, Beirut and Tehran, and assassinated two high-profile targets, Hezbollah commander Faud Shukar and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

It is widely believed that Netanyahu wants to convert the Gaza war into a regional conflict (Asia Times, August 2, 2024) and has been looking for an excuse to pave the way for a direct confrontation between the United States and Iran. “Netanyahu has for two decades sought to get the U.S. to go to war with Iran. The last four American Presidents have all at various times faced pressure from Israel to attack Iran.” (Time Magazine, August 1, 2024) Therefore, targeting the Hamas leader in Tehran was a calculated risk game to enlarge the war theatre and to discredit Iranian credentials for the Palestinian cause and its ability to provide safety and security to the Palestinian leaders.

Ismail Haniyeh was a regular visitor of Muslim/Arab capitals, where he could have been easy prey to the Israeli attack. Still, the choice of place and timing was based on well-calculated reasoning. The assassination of the Hamas leader on the eve of the high-profile inauguration ceremony of the new president was a sheer diplomatic and security embarrassment for Iran, which had multiple objectives for Israel.

Despite the sacrifices, Hamas will continue on this path, and we are confident of victory.

To blame the Hamas leader’s assassination on Iran and to cast doubts about the Iranian ability to provide security. It also forestalls any move by the reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, to have a ‘critical dialogue’ with the West, instead putting him on the defensive to prove his credentials to safeguard the national security interests of Iran. Importantly, the Iranian ability to strike back and revenge the assassination of the Hamas leader has been called into question.

There have been statements by the Iranian supreme leader of Iran’s duty to deliver harsh punishment, “The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime has martyred our esteemed guest on our soil and caused us grief, but it has also paved the way for severe retribution.” (Tehran Times, August 3, 2024) “The IRGC has vowed retribution for Haniyeh’s death, declaring that the Zionist regime would face severe consequences at the appropriate time, place, and manner.

This terrorist attack was designed and implemented by the Zionist regime and supported by the criminal government of the United States.” (Tehran Times, August 3, 2024) Ali Bagheri, the acting Iranian foreign minister, has written separate letters to the UN and OIC and stated that “Iran is seriously determined to hold the regime responsible.”  The ‘Axis of Resistance’ has also vowed to avenge this cowardly act of aggression against Iran and Hamas.

Iranian leaders have vowed to retaliate and stated that ‘it didn’t care if the response triggers a war.

Therefore, despite the dangerous episode of the Iran-Israel confrontation in April 2024, defused only after intense diplomatic maneuvers by the US, Western powers, and Muslim/Arab states (Stratheia, April 15, 2024), Israel wants to test the Iranian response for the determent of regional peace and stability. Iran has rejected the US and Arab State’s efforts to temper its response; Iranian leaders have vowed to retaliate and stated that ‘it didn’t care if the response triggers a war’ (Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2024).

There are serious considerations in Tehran about the possible responses to the Israeli aggression that has severely undermined Iranian sovereignty and security. The efficacy and ability of Iranian techno-military prowess and its political will to respond are severely at stake; Iran has to restore its prestige and deterrence to maintain the regional balance of power. The thinking in Iranian power corridors is very likely focussing on a joint calibrated attack against high-profile Israeli military installations led by Iran and then followed by the forces of ‘Axis of Resistance.’ There are also chances of a three-pronged attack by the ‘Axis of Resistance’ from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. The US forces have been dispatched to the region with Arab States in a quandary, the world is anxiously waiting for the Iranian response.