The visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani to Iran comes amid a highly sensitive and tense regional situation. During this visit, key agendas related to these developments are expected to be discussed and debated. The focus of Al-sudani’s talks in Tehran will likely be two main issues: The current situation in Syria and the position of Iraqi resistance groups.

Al-Sudani’s talks in Tehran aim to resolve regional tensions, focusing on resistance groups and the evolving situation in Syria.

Issues related to Syria and resistance groups have decisive and sensitive dimensions for the region’s stability and relations between Iran and Iraq. Other issues, such as energy and gas, could also be addressed during this visit.

Iran’s gas exports to Iraq have been halted, and this halt means a severe disruption to the country’s electricity supply, especially since the contract to import Iraqi gas from Turkmenistan has not yet entered the operational phase.

Sudani’s trip reflects the Iraqi government’s concerns and its efforts to converge the views of regional players and present an image of a neutral and active mediator. Recently, speculation has been raised about the possibility of the United States resuming attacks on the positions of resistance groups on Iraqi soil and even changing its political system, similar to what happened in Syria.

Resistance groups or factions, despite the cessation of missile and drone attacks on the occupied territories under continuous pressure from the Prime Minister and some members of the Shiite Coordination Framework, remain a source of concern for the Zionist regime and the United States. Simply stopping these attacks does not seem to be enough for these two, and there are serious concerns about the military capabilities and weapons of these groups.

The Iraqi PM seeks to mediate regional views, reduce tensions, and ensure Iraq remains neutral amid escalating conflicts.

Therefore, weakening or destroying the military capabilities of these groups could be an immediate goal for Washington and Tel Aviv. However, some evidence suggests that Washington has prevented direct Israeli attacks on Iraq in recent weeks, and as a result, pressure has been exerted on Al-Sudani and the Coordination Framework to use this opportunity to disarm the resistance groups.

It is not far-fetched to expect that the rumors about a change in the political system in Iraq are targeted attempts to put pressure on Al-Sudani and the Shiites to accept fundamental changes, namely disarmament or integration of factions into the army.

The issue of collecting weapons from resistance groups and handing them over to the government, which has been seriously raised and emphasized by Shiite religious authorities such as Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the leader of the Hikmat movement, and Muqtada Al-Sadr, reflects Iraq’s concerns about being inadvertently drawn into regional conflicts.

Baghdad, especially after the escalation of Israeli actions and heavy attacks on resistance groups in Gaza and Lebanon and its confrontation with Iran, believes that these groups may, without a justifiable reason, drag the country into a conflict that will not benefit Iraq.

Therefore, one of the main axes of Al-Sudani’s negotiations with senior Iranian officials is expected to be convincing the resistance groups to disarm. The Iraqi government and the ruling consensus within the Shiite Coordination Framework support this request.

Disarming resistance groups is central to Baghdad’s strategy to avoid unintentional involvement in regional conflicts.

In the current regional landscape and its developments, Sudani and the Coordination Framework are trying to convince Iran of the new conditions in Syria and bring Tehran’s view on the developments in this country and its new management closer to the views of other countries in the region.

Sudani will go to Qatar after Tehran. Given Doha’s good relations with Tehran and Syrian groups, it seems that Al-Sudani will ask Qatari officials to pave the way for a relative rapprochement between Tehran and Damascus, or at least a reduction in tension between them, in line with these efforts.

On the eve of Trump’s return to power, Al-Sudani is making serious diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions in the region because any instability in the region could have direct and negative consequences for Iraq and even increase the possibility of terrorism returning to this country.

Finally, the successful holding of the upcoming Arab summit in Baghdad, which will be the first summit without Assad’s presence, is of particular importance to Iraq, and issues related to Syria and the Gaza war will be among its central topics.

Sudani’s diplomatic efforts aim to protect Iraq from regional instability while strengthening its position ahead of the Arab summit.

By taking advantage of these opportunities and threats and using active diplomacy, Al-Sudani seeks to strengthen Iraq’s position, gain the most benefits for his country, and keep it away from potential regional threats.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.