When the Taliban recaptured power in 2021, the hope among many outside observers was that the group would rule with a heavy dose of pragmatism, bearing in mind the vulnerability of Afghanistan and its need to gather some international legitimacy. What the world has seen is rather a speedy unwinding: Afghanistan is not only a failed state but a producer of several interconnected crises, terrorism, narcotics, and human suffering, the consequences of which are impossible to ignore. What is happening is not an Afghan issue only, it is a threat to the whole world, with consequences in Brussels, Beijing, Islamabad and New York.
“Afghanistan may shortly become not only a pariah state but also a major exporter of instability on the scale of pre-9/11 days.”
The greatest threat in the short term must be to the resurgence of extremist networks. Afghanistan once again serves as a free zone with no policing that enables jihadist groups to relocate, exercise and prepare. The most infamous of them is the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), which has executed fatal attacks not only in Afghanistan but also in other countries. TTP has once again taken up an insurgent war against Pakistan using the sanctuaries in Afghanistan. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) propped by its anti-China agenda, has equally found a haven in the disorder.
The fact that the Taliban could not, or would not, do anything to halt the activities of these organizations leads to a rather worrying conclusion: that Afghanistan may shortly become not only a pariah state but also a major exporter of instability on the scale of pre-9/11 days. Cross-border violence has already increased; Pakistan has experienced increased militant attacks and Central Asia is on its toes on possible spillovers. Allowing them to roam, such groups will not only destabilize the region but also connect to the world jihadist networks, threatening other cities around the world that have already been the victims of Afghan-bred radicalization.
No less threatening is the shift in the drug economy of Afghanistan. The nation used to control the global market of opium and heroin, but now there is an even more dangerous trend of methamphetamine. In comparison to opium, meth is quicker and easier to manufacture, it uses less land and is sold at a high value across international markets. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime report indicates that Afghan meth has already spread across the borders into the Middle East, Europe, and Asia.
The statistics are dazzling. Almost 300 million individuals were found to be using drugs in 2021, and the number of people with drug-use disorders rose to nearly 40 million. This is not only a security crisis, but also a crisis of public health. The proceeds of the meth business are put back into activities in sponsoring terrorist organizations, leading to a vicious cycle of narcoterrorism. Afghanistan has contributed to the rampant use of drugs in the European continent, and Europol has already cautioned the European security situation due to the drug warfare in Afghanistan. Synthetic drugs and extremist violence are of the most destabilizing factors of the new age.
“Synthetic drugs and extremist violence are one of the most destabilizing factors of the new age.”
The Afghan people are the worst hit in this tempest. The Taliban has undone two decades of tenuous but progressive gains in women’s rights, freedom of expression, and especially in education. Women and girls are routinely written out of the public sphere: they are denied access to school, higher education and most employment and in many places are increasingly confined to their homes under the threat of punishment. Minorities are also targeted and there is violence and discrimination against Hazara, Shia Muslims and other vulnerable groups.
Not only is this reduction of rights a moral disaster but it is also a source of instability. A society where women constitute half the population but are denied education and opportunity cannot prosper. The outcome is an emerging state of humanitarian crisis; millions of people are displaced, food insufficiency is a real issue, and desperate Afghans are making risky attempts to leave the country as refugees. Coming countries can simply not sustain this, given the economic and political pressures of their own. Europe, similarly, experiences the influx of increasing asylum claims, and it is creating political tensions within the EU.
Western capitals have the temptation to wash hands of Afghanistan. Far more than weariness and frustration are involved after twenty years of expensive intervention. Failure to pay attention to Afghanistan is a dangerous price to pay. Radicalism spreads like cancer when it is not contained and drug trafficking demarcations grow where there is no international collaboration and humanitarian cries cross borders. The history of the last two decades shows that no unstable situation can remain only inside Afghanistan.
There must be a multi-layered international response that is pragmatic. This does not mean shouldering back into Afghanistan or still trying to be nation builders. Rather, it calls on precise pressure and specific assistance. The Taliban rulers should be forced to pay the cost of facilitating the trafficking of narcotics and violation of human rights by imposing sanctions and travel restrictions. Meanwhile, humanitarian assistance should have no contact with the Taliban and humanitarian aid should be channelled through credible international agencies straight to the Afghan people. They cannot sacrifice food, medicine, as well as the national education of the women and children in the hands of the Taliban.
“A society where women constitute half the population but are denied education and opportunity, cannot prosper.”
Arguably, most importantly, the neighbours of Afghanistan must be responsible. Pakistan, Iran, China, and the Central Asian republics can ill afford turmoil next door and may have conflicting interests or agendas. A regional combined system, either within the United Nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or some other mechanism, is thoroughly required to combat cross-border extremism and drug trafficking. Intelligence sharing, border security management and standardized legal instruments are some of the ways that can help reduce the activities of terrorist and narcotics cartels.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.
