The recent visit of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief to Tajikistan has sparked speculation about the intentions behind the high-level discussions. Coming at a time when regional tensions are high and internal security challenges in Pakistan are mounting, the visit raises questions: is it a strict message to the Taliban, or does it signify a shift in Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan?

The ISI chief’s visit underscores Pakistan’s frustration with the Taliban’s failure to curb TTP sanctuaries and cross-border terrorism.

Over the past two years, Pakistan’s security landscape has been marred by the resurgence of militant activities, particularly by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP, emboldened by the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, has carried out numerous attacks within Pakistan, targeting both civilians and security forces. The situation has strained Pakistan’s relationship with the Afghan Taliban, whose promises of curbing cross-border terrorism have remained largely unfulfilled.

The ISI chief’s visit comes amid growing international and domestic criticism of Pakistan’s inability to effectively counter the TTP threat. Furthermore, pressure from global powers to address terrorism emanating from Afghan soil has added urgency to the situation. The visit, therefore, could be aimed at addressing these multifaceted challenges.

One prevailing interpretation of the ISI chief’s visit is that it serves as a direct warning to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Despite Pakistan’s historical ties with the Taliban, recent events have tested this relationship. The Taliban’s reluctance—or inability—to rein in TTP militants has fueled frustration in Islamabad.

Reports suggest that Pakistan has conveyed strong demands to the Taliban leadership, including actionable steps to dismantle TTP sanctuaries and prevent their fighters from launching cross-border attacks. Failure to comply could lead to significant diplomatic and military consequences.

The warning is not without precedent. In the past, Pakistan has conducted cross-border strikes in Afghanistan. However, such actions risk further destabilizing relations with Kabul, especially as the Taliban view Pakistan’s actions as breaches of Afghan sovereignty.

Pakistan faces mounting domestic and international pressure to address the growing TTP threat originating from Afghan soil.

Alternatively, the visit could indicate a broader recalibration of Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan. For decades, Pakistan has pursued a strategy of supporting the Taliban as a means to secure influence in its western neighbor. However, the rise of the TTP and the Taliban’s unwillingness to cooperate on counterterrorism have exposed the flaws in this approach.

Some analysts believe Pakistan may be rethinking its reliance on the Taliban and exploring new avenues for regional security. This could involve engaging with other Afghan factions, fostering international consensus on counterterrorism measures, or even taking a harder stance against the Taliban regime. A shift in policy would also align with Pakistan’s efforts to improve its global standing, particularly as it seeks economic support from international partners.

Domestically, Pakistan’s leadership is under immense pressure to address the deteriorating security situation. The resurgence of militancy has eroded public confidence in the government and military, both of which are seen as struggling to maintain control. The ISI chief’s visit may signal a renewed commitment to tackling these issues head-on, whether through diplomacy, military action, or both.

Regionally, the visit underscores Pakistan’s central role in Afghan affairs. Any change in Pakistan’s policy will have significant implications for neighboring countries, particularly China, Iran, and the United States, all of whom have vested interests in Afghan stability. Additionally, the visit may serve as a precursor to broader regional cooperation on counterterrorism.

Whether the visit represents a warning to the Taliban or a shift in policy, it highlights the complexities of Pakistan’s security and foreign policy challenges. Balancing domestic stability, regional influence, and international obligations will require careful navigation.

A recalibration of Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy could involve reduced reliance on the Taliban and engagement with other Afghan factions.

The coming weeks will reveal the true outcomes of the ISI chief’s visit. If Pakistan can secure meaningful concessions from the Taliban, it may temporarily alleviate the TTP threat. However, if the Taliban continue to resist cooperation, Pakistan may be forced to adopt a more assertive stance, potentially reshaping its role in the region. In either case, the visit marks a critical moment in Pakistan’s evolving relationship with the Taliban and its broader strategy in South Asia.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.