Life in Tajikistan feels worlds apart from the Pakistani political obsessions of London. Here, surrounded by diplomats and military personnel from around the globe — Americans, Iranians, Arabs, East Asians, Turks, British, and even Indians — I find myself in conversations that stray far from the perpetual whirlpool of Pakistani politics I experience in London. The recent US election, however, dominates every exchange, casting a palpable tension over gatherings as diverse as the COP 29 climate summit in Baku to Remembrance Sunday ceremonies here in Dushanbe. Even as the Quetta railway station blast by the Majid Brigade was briefly lamented, the prevailing question remained: What does Donald Trump’s return mean for global order? Trump’s impending impact looms more significant than ever in these hallowed moments of commemoration, between reflections on security challenges and climate disasters.

Trump’s second administration appears to be building itself on the same volatile cocktail that marked his first, but this time, the ingredients are more concentrated and far less restrained. His inner circle, now stacked with hardcore far-right loyalists, strategists, and billionaire disruptors, presents an unprecedented blend of isolationist populism and aggressive nationalism. Unlike his first term, where he was occasionally tempered by conventional Republicans like Reince Priebus and Rex Tillerson, Trump has surrounded himself with ideologues who share his disdain for the “deep state”. Elon Musk leads this charge, whose vision of “efficiency” in government echoes Trump’s promise to “drain the swamp”. However, Musk’s concept of “efficiency” is sharpened not in public service but in corporate boardrooms, where employees are disposable, and profit is king. Applying this mindset to governance is akin to dousing the fragile ecosystem of democratic institutions in gasoline, striking a match, and calling it progress.

As Trump prepares to take office once again, this brand of populism threatens not only America but the very fabric of global stability.

In foreign policy, Trump’s administration has taken a markedly radical turn. Marco Rubio, the hawkish senator expected to become Secretary of State, represents a faction within Trump’s team that views diplomacy with Iran as appeasement. Rubio’s hardline stance could bring the US back to the days of “maximum pressure”, a strategy that alienated allies and pushed Tehran closer to nuclear capability during Trump’s first term. Memories of Qasem Soleimani’s assassination by a US drone in 2020 still reverberate in diplomatic circles, especially now, with Iran allegedly plotting retaliation against Trump himself. With Rubio at the helm, we could see renewed hostilities and an even more precarious balance of power in the Middle East, where Tehran’s reach stretches through volatile proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, and beyond.

Then there is the Israel-Palestine dilemma. Trump’s first term saw him make unprecedented moves that emboldened Israeli expansionism, from recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital to supporting Netanyahu’s right-wing agenda. By sidelining Palestinian aspirations, he set off a spiral of radicalization and despair that has only deepened. In his second term, Trump’s disregard for the Palestinian plight could empower Israel to pursue annexation in the West Bank. This move would erase the possibility of a two-state solution and ignite violence on an unprecedented scale. Netanyahu, buoyed by Trump’s return, is likely to push for a “new Middle Eastern order”, a vision that ignores the voices of millions of Palestinians. With Elon Musk advising on “government efficiency,” there is a risk that the US approach to this conflict will become a streamlined process of elimination — one that considers Palestinian hopes as collateral damage in the pursuit of strategic realignment.

Also read: Populism Or Fascism? How Imran Khan’s Vendetta is Shaking Pakistan

Yet, not just the Middle East stands on a precipice. Trump’s cabinet choices have signaled a renewed aggressive stance with China, an approach reinforced by his pick for National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, an outspoken critic of Beijing’s expansionist policies. With Trump’s trusted advisor, Robert Lighthizer, likely to reprise his role as Trade Representative, we may see a return to the tariff wars that strained global markets. While tariffs play well domestically, they destabilize global supply chains and increase costs — a risk the world can hardly afford during a fragile post-pandemic recovery. This administration’s preference for isolationist policies, intertwined with nationalist fervor, could erode the alliances that have held the global order together since the mid-20th century.

Also read: Triumph of Populism: What Trump’s Win Means For World Order

What is most disquieting, however, is the policies and ideology underlying them. Trump’s return is a beacon for far-right groups worldwide, from European ultra-nationalists to Latin American populists, who see in him a blueprint for governance that prioritizes loyalty over competence. This is governance as domination, a model that sees democratic institutions as hindrances to be subdued rather than pillars to be strengthened. Under Trump’s banner, populism has evolved from an electoral strategy into a philosophy of power — one that treats oversight as obstruction and views dissent as disloyalty.

Musk’s concept of “efficiency” is sharpened not in public service but in corporate boardrooms, where employees are disposable, and profit is king.

In environmental policy, Trump’s choice of Lee Zeldin as an EPA administrator epitomizes his administration’s deregulatory zeal. Zeldin, an ardent opponent of ecological protections, appears set to dismantle regulations for short-term economic gains. At a time when climate change wreaks havoc across the globe, such short-sightedness borders on irresponsibility. The COP 29 climate summit in Baku, where Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif emphasized his nation’s plight as a climate victim, underscored the global need for cooperation. Yet Trump’s administration signals an inward turn, one that threatens to sideline environmental justice for immediate profit, leaving vulnerable nations like Pakistan to endure most climate catastrophes without adequate support.

Ultimately, Trump’s second term is not just poised to disrupt policy — it threatens the stability of the global order itself. With a cabinet rooted in racial nationalism, hostile foreign policy, and corporate pragmatism, Trump’s administration is gearing up to govern with ruthless efficiency that views alliances as dispensable and international cooperation as a hindrance. This is not America, which shaped the post-World War II order; it is America, which is willing to sacrifice the principles of unity and peace for a facade of strength.

The rise of populism, amplified by Trump’s return, is not just an American problem. It is a global issue that blinds voters in democracies worldwide, from Washington to Warsaw. The enthusiasm surrounding his return underscores a dangerous shift: an emotional allegiance that overshadows critical thought and rational analysis. As Trump prepares to take office once again, this brand of populism threatens not only America but the very fabric of global stability. And if history is any guide, the repercussions will extend far beyond his term, echoing through fractured alliances and emboldened authoritarianism for years to come.